Oddsmaker’s mistake caused a historic streak movement in the WNBA All-Star

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The total over/under moved in the WNBA All-Star Game by more than 50 points on Wednesday, a historic streak move on a number that a Las Vegas odds maker calls “the worst ever.”

Circa Sports in Las Vegas, the first to comment over/under the total points scored in the game, opened the number 248.5. An hour before the match ended, the total was 195.5.

The 53-point move was the biggest turnaround many seasoned bookmakers could remember, and it wasn’t due to any attempt to screw up or a rush of big bets. Instead, it was just a mistake by an odds maker who was short on time.

On Wednesday, around 7 a.m. PT, Matt Metcalfe, director of sportsbooks for Circa Sports, saw an opportunity to publish the first WNBA All-Star Game total to the betting market, he told ESPN. He had a morning meeting at 9am and still needed to shower and put on work clothes. Rushing, Metcalfe said he looked at the total points scored in previous All-Star games and landed at 248.5 as the opening number for this year’s game.

“At worst, I don’t think that was more than a 15-point lead,” Metcalf said. “That’s as bad as I think.” “I didn’t think it would be the worst number ever.”

Metcalf said he did not take into account that the WNBA All-Stars were facing the US women’s national team, which is preparing for the Olympics and is expected to take the game more seriously than the traditional high-score All-Star games that are often played. With low intensity and inability to defend.

“This is completely different from [typical] All-Star Game,” Las Vegas Aces Sports Illustrated coach Bill Laimbert told. Usually everyone is some kind of goof. This is not what American basketball wants. USAB wants a very competitive game.”

The opening number was 248.5 high for a few hours at Circa before the first bet came in, and it was a more than respectable account that pushed the total to 252.5. Metcalfe said he believed the overbet was designed to “mislead” the market, a tactic used by professional bettors to mislead bookmakers about how they would bet.

At that point, sportsbooks in the United States and internationally began publishing over/under totals of the same or identical Circa number. With more bets on the board, bettors start betting less, and the streak starts to drop.

“I’ve been watching this stuff since 2004, 2005,” said Rex Byers, director of risk at SuperBook in Westgate Las Vegas, and I can’t think of a bigger step out of my head. in the top five.”

The SuperBook opened at 251 and moved the number 32 times before settling at 197. Byers said they weren’t taking any limited bets on any lower but were just trying to stay in line with the market.

“We have more money than the ones below,” Byers told ESPN a few hours before the 7 p.m. ET announcement.

In the past when some bookmakers published spreads or bad totals caused by a typo or error, sports betting writers canceled bets on these numbers, claiming an “obvious error.” That wasn’t the case with his WNBA total, Metcalf confirmed: “I set a horrible number, stuck it and made the bets,” he said.

Metcalf estimates that Circa only took six to 10 limited bets on the bottom level causing the streak to drop dramatically. The opening limit was $2,000 and was later reduced to $500.

Circa, which caters to professional bettors, has earned a reputation in the industry for having sharp lines and totals.

“I always say a bad number is better than no number,” Metcalf said. “I think we’ve got some confidence with the numbers we’ve put in the past – granted, we may have blown all that day.

“I think the market mostly respects our numbers, but we’re not perfect. We’re going to do some bad numbers. However, I would never expect that we’re going to put in a number with a 50-point discount total.”

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