Lunar oscillation, climate change seen as driver of coastal flooding in 2030

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Waves at high tide make their way over rocks and onto the road in Oceanside, California, November 27, 2019. New research finds that the regular lunar cycle will increase sea level rise caused by climate change. (Mike Blake, Reuters)

WASHINGTON — U.S. coasts will face increased flooding in the mid-2030s thanks to the regular lunar cycle that will increase sea levels rise due to climate change, according to research led by NASA scientists.

A key factor that scientists have identified is the regular “oscillation” of the Moon’s orbit – first identified in the 18th century – which takes 18.6 years to complete. The moon’s gravitational pull helps push the tides on Earth.

In one half of this lunar cycle, the Earth’s regular daily tides are waning, with higher tides lower than normal and tides higher than normal. In the other half of the cycle, the situation reverses, with higher tides and lower tides.

The researchers said the projected flooding will result from a combination of the continued rise in sea levels linked to climate change and the arrival of an amplifying portion of the lunar cycle in the mid-2030s.

“In the background we have a long-term rise in sea level linked to global warming. It is causing sea level rise everywhere,” Ben Hamlington, a NASA team leader and one of the study’s authors, told Reuters.

“This effect from the moon causes the tides to vary, so what we found is that this effect is in line with baseline sea level rise, and that would cause flooding specifically in that time period from 2030 to 2040,” Hamlington said.

The researchers studied 89 tidal gauge sites in every state and coastal territory in the United States except Alaska. The dynamic effect applies to the entire planet except for the far northern coasts as in Alaska.

This prediction pushes previous estimates of serious coastal flooding forward by about 70 years.

The study, published this month in the journal Nature Climate Change, was led by members of a NASA science team that tracks sea level change. NASA said the study focused on US coasts, but the results apply to coasts around the world.

“It opens the eyes of a lot of people,” Hamlington said. “It’s really important information for planners. And I think there is a great deal of interest trying to get this information from science and scientists into the hands of planners.”

Hamlington said city planners should plan accordingly

“A particular building or piece of infrastructure, you may want to stay there for a very long period of time, while something else you may want to protect or access for a few years.”

(Reporting by Dan Fastenberg; Editing by Diane Kraft and Will Dunham)

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