Turkey’s closely watched vote could set the country on a new course

ANKARA, TURKEY — As the Republic of Turkey celebrates its centennial year, the country is being watched closely to see if a united opposition can oust the NATO member’s increasingly authoritarian leader.

Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey could extend President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rule into a third decade or set the country on a new course.

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the secular, center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP, is the main challenger trying to unseat Erdogan after 20 years in power. The 74-year-old is the joint candidate of a six-party alliance that has vowed to dismantle the executive presidency installed by Erdogan and return the country to a checks-and-balances parliamentary democracy.

Along with the opposition alliance, Kılıçdaroğlu won the support of the country’s pro-Kurdish party, which received nearly 10% of the vote. And the polls gave him a slight advantage. The race is so close that a runoff between the two leaders will be decided on May 28.

Erdogan has lost some ground amid a faltering economy and a cost-of-living crisis. His government has also been criticized for its poor response to a devastating earthquake in southern Turkey earlier this year that killed tens of thousands of people.

Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund, said, “Erdogan is facing a real election problem for the first time in 20 years since he came to power.” .

“On the one hand, President Erdoğan has a vision of a security state, monist society, power concentrated in the hands of the executive power. “On the other hand, there is a more pluralistic vision of Turkey represented by Kılıçdaroğlu, where no society discriminates, it becomes more democratic and… there is a clear separation of powers between the executive, legislative and judicial powers. .”

Erdoğan has served as prime minister for three terms before and is running for the third presidential term. The 69-year-old leader of the conservative and religious Justice and Development Party, or AKP, is already the country’s longest-serving leader. Erdogan, a deeply divisive politician, built his campaign on past achievements, presenting himself as the only politician capable of rebuilding lives after the Feb. 6 earthquake that leveled cities in southern Turkey and killed more than 50,000 people.

He also embarked on a spending spree ahead of the election, including raising the minimum wage and pensions to offset the effects of inflation.

During the pre-election campaign, Erdogan tried to portray the opposition as colluding with “terrorists” as well as with foreign powers that want to harm Turkey. In a bid to shore up his conservative base, he also accused the opposition of supporting “deviant” LGBTQ rights and being “drunk”. On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of his supporters were shown a fake video showing the commander of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, singing an opposition rallying cry.

Kılıçdaroğlu, on the other hand, is a soft-spoken politician and is responsible for bringing together the previously divided opposition. His six-party National Alliance, which includes Islamists and nationalists, has vowed to reverse democratic backsliding and crackdowns on free speech and dissent under Erdogan.

Two other candidates are also fighting for the post of president, but they are considered outsiders. They are former CHP leader Muharrem İnce, who lost to Erdogan in the last presidential election in 2018, and Sinan Oğan, a former academician who received the support of the anti-immigrant nationalist party. Ince Kılıçdaroğlu, who heads the Vatan Party, has been criticized by his supporters, who have accused him of splitting votes and forcing a second round of elections.

The main issue for the election is an economy that eats away at the purchasing power of families and high inflation.

Cengiz Yel, the owner of a teahouse in Istanbul, said that he will vote for “change” because the government is not dealing with the economy properly.

“We’re worried about rent, electricity and other bills,” Yale said. “For the last year, I start each new month with more debt.”

Others profess their undying love for the leader who, in the early years of his rule, improved the country’s infrastructure and lifted many out of poverty.

65-year-old Arif Portakal, an Erdogan supporter in Istanbul, said, “I love my nation. I want to be with a leader who serves his nation.”

The campaign was marked by some violence. In the eastern city of Erzurum on Sunday, protesters threw stones at Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu while campaigning on behalf of Kılıçdaroğlu from the top of the bus. At least seven people were injured.

Voters will also vote to fill seats in the 600-seat parliament. The opposition needs at least a majority to be able to implement some of the democratic reforms it has promised.

More than 64 million people, including 3.2 million foreign Turkish citizens, have the right to vote. More than 1.6 million people have already cast ballots abroad or at airports. Voter turnout is traditionally high in Turkey.

There are concerns about how voters will be able to vote among the 3 million people displaced after the earthquake devastated 11 provinces. Officials say only 133,000 people who were forced to leave their hometowns have registered to vote in new places. Some political parties and non-governmental organizations plan to transport evacuees back to the earthquake zone and allow them to vote.

Many have questioned whether Erdogan will accept the election defeat.

After the ruling party lost its parliamentary majority in 2015 elections, Erdogan is believed to be working behind the scenes to block coalition talks. The party regained its majority in re-elections a few months later. And in 2019, after the AKP lost its mayor, the ruling party protested the results of local elections in Istanbul. At that time, the party suffered a more humiliating defeat in the re-elections.

Observers want to see whether the organized opposition can overcome obstacles and still achieve a peaceful regime change in a country where the leader exercises strong control over the media, judiciary and electoral body.

“The world is watching because this is an experience, because Turkey, like some countries, has been following an authoritarian path for some time,” Ünlühisarcıklı said. “And if this trajectory can be changed only through elections, it can be a model for other countries.”

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Mehmet Güzel joined from Istanbul.