NBA Free Agency 2021 – Players, teams and decisions that are most important this offseason

With the 2021 NBA Draft in the books, it’s time to shift the focus to a free agency where a number of stories are set to dominate over the coming weeks.

Did the Los Angeles Lakers make the right move and decide to make a success deal for Russell Westbrook for a possible sale of Sacramento Kings ’sharp-tipped Buddy Hield? Will the Philadelphia 76ers accept the deal with Ben Simmons or will it move on to next season while the All-Star is still on the list?

And which upcoming offseason decision could have the most impact on the road to the 2022 NBA title?

Our NBA insiders will answer the biggest questions and make their boldest predictions for the vacant term, which officially begins Monday at 6 p.m. ET.

MORE: The latest free agency news and trading

1. Which team could make the most dramatic turn – for better or worse – this offseason?

Tim Bontemps: The NBA’s open secret during this interim is that the New Orleans Pelicans are desperate to evolve and reassure Zion Williamson that he should want to be part of the franchise group in the long run before he can offer him an extension of the maximum central contract next summer. Armed with plenty of betting and after a mid-shift with Memphis earlier this week, plenty of cork space, the Pelicans should be busy for the next 10 days.

Nick Friedell: Golden State Warriors. It may not be a significant move, but they can pack up their future assets, including 2020 second-placed James Wiseman, to go all-in this season for Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and the returning Klay Thompson, who hasn’t played after the 2019 final suffered an ACL. rupture in his left knee.

Andrew Lopez: The Washington Wizards took the momentum in trying to commit to building the future around Bradley Beal by opening a potential cork space in 2022-23 with the Westbrook deal. But what if it doesn’t work? The rumor mill surrounding Beal continues, and if this new movement goes south, the drama may follow.

Tim MacMahon: Portland is in the most precarious position of star due to Damian Lillard’s dissatisfaction. Should Trail Blazers take a big boost in trying to convince Lillard that they can really compete? See how things played out with James Harden in Houston after the Westbrook deal as a warning of how wrong the route might be. If Portland spends Lillard’s pristine commercial class, it’s time to rip it off.

Kevin Pelton: I think the Dallas Mavericks are ready to jump to the top floor of the West if they can upgrade using the $ 20 million potential interest rate space. Free agent guard Kyle Lowry would provide an ideal short-term addition to a team that could use another playmaker to keep Luka Doncic fresh by the end of the games.

2. Fact or Fiction: The deal made by the Lakers is better than no.

Bontemps: Fiction. Some may not understand how Hield could be considered better than Westbrook, but I’m here to tell you that he would have been. The Lakers were a team that hadn’t had a serious 3-point shootout in the last two seasons. Hield, one of the NBA’s best 3-point shooters, would have been the perfect catch-and-shoot player alongside LeBron James. Instead, the Lakers trade for Westbrook, which needs the ball in their hands and is one of the NBA’s worst attackers. It’s hard to think of a worse fit next to James among star players than Westbrook. This feels like a classic case where a big name is handed out after putting together the best team. If it had been a priority, getting Hield would have been a much better move.

MacMahon: Fiction. Adding a former MVP is much more splashy, but Hield would have been a better fit. He is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, which would have immediately met the Lakers ’greatest need. Westbrook is one of the worst 3-point shooters in the league, which is why teams dare to shoot, hanging from him when he has no ball in his hands. Westbrook is still able to destroy and collect triple double guns, but he must be the primary ball handler to be himself. How does that make sense as James’s teammate?

Pelton: Fiction. I didn’t love the idea of ​​giving up choosing Hield’s first round, but the fit with Lakers made sense given his age and their need to shoot outdoors. Hield also had more opportunities to maintain or even increase commercial value as wages fell during his contract. This is not the case in Westbrook.

Lopez: Fiction: I really liked a possible Hield deal because the Lakers were shot. Westbrook is a 30.3% shooter in the 3-point range of his career (second worst player of all time with players with at least 2,000 such attempts). In addition, the Lakers have more than $ 120 million tied to just three players – Westbrook, James and Anthony Davis. The Hield deal would have given them a little more room to play under the cap.

Friedell: Fact. I definitely believe Westbrook will make it work in Los Angeles. Playing at home always means a little more to everyone, especially the stars. Westbrook is doing its best to get good looks for LeBron & Co.

3. Fact or Fiction: Ben Simmons becomes 76er on the opening night.

Pelton: More facts than fiction. I’m sure Sixers Basketball President Daryl Morey has read “Money” where Billy Beane introduces his five trading rules. Rule # 2: “The day you say ‘I have to do something,’ you’re in trouble. Because you’re going to make a bad deal.” So I don’t think Morey handles Simmons just because he has a trade. He holds on to the highest value that may not be available this summer.

Bontemps: Fact, but not for lack of trying. I’m not sure right now where the offer will come from, which will make Morey move from Simmons this summer. If we’ve learned anything from Morey over his decade in the NBA, he’s not afraid of awkward situations and has to maximize value. So don’t expect him to trade Simmons for less than he thinks it’s worth. Right now, it’s hard to see anyone doing a great job of paying Simmons a reward after appearing in the playoffs.

Lopez: Fiction: I thought for a while that this could lead to a Harden-type situation where Simmons would play the first weeks in Philadelphia, but it simply doesn’t seem like Simmons and Philadelphia’s marriage can make it any longer. Morey continues to look for the best possible deal packages, and someone bites – though perhaps closer to the start of the season than during a vacant office.

MacMahon: Fiction. Both parties see the need for a fresh start, so it is not in anyone’s interest for the divorce proceedings to be extended to the regular series. At some point, Morey will have to give up his “Harden-esque” refund request – which is, of course, too much, given that the Sixers were eager to offer Simmons as part of Harden’s package before his value fell because of him. bad in the playoffs.

Friedell: Fiction. It feels like Simmons sealed his fate in Philly after he had fed under the basket. It would be hard to bring him back knowing how low his self-confidence is at the moment. He needs to change the landscape.

4. What is the biggest impact of the vacancy / trade decision on the 2022 NBA title race?

Lopez: Remember when I said that a possible Hield deal was better than the Westbrook deal? Well, Westbrook still has a big impact on the title race. Even if Westbrook’s shooting doesn’t help the Lakers, his playground will come. For the past three seasons, Westbrook has led the NBA in points per assisted game, and the only season he didn’t lead was the year he spent with Harden in Houston. Westbrook helps lighten the load on James ’play tasks. While some shooting would have helped more, the motivated Westbrook will help cement the Lakers as a favorite at the Western Conference.

Bontemps: I am tempted to say the Westbrook deal because it seems inevitable that it will cost the Lakers a chance to get a new title, but I will say what will happen to both Lillard and Beal. If either changes teams in the coming months, it would be the kind of movement that could shake the league completely, as the Jrue Holiday and Harden contracts did last season. And if not, the fate of both is coming across the league until 2022.

Pelton: Chris Paul’s decision on the player option. We act on the assumption that Paul will be back with Phoenix Suns, but if that changes, he can not only create a new competitor elsewhere, but also take Phoenix out of the mix to return to the NBA Finals.

Friedell: Where does Lillard land? If he’s really ready to leave Portland at some point this year, it will have a big impact on the league. I’ve always thought the Knicks would be a great place to land for Lillard, and he could form an interesting pair with head coach Tom Thibodeau.

MacMahon: It could be Lowry if he decides to go to Miami Heats, Dallas Mavericks or Philadelphia 76ers. Any of these three teams can be a serious competitor if they increase Lowry’s playing, shooting, defense, and leadership. But it’s likely that the New Orleans Pelicans will make Lowry the biggest bid. Will he prioritize maximizing his last big contract or put himself in a position to compete for another ring?

5. One bold forecast for a vacant office and trading season is …

Bontemps: The former Lakers starting guard – Lonzo Ball – will receive more guaranteed money than the Lakers starting guard in 2020-21 – Dennis Schroder – in a vacant office.

Pelton: We look back at Ball tokens as a limited free agent, which is the best value of any signed over $ 10 million period. Although Ball is not exactly a guard, the results of players who have won his previous contracts are strong, and Ball is young enough to continue to improve on a very new contract.

Friedell: The Knicks are finding a way to get the star they need to pair with Julius Randle, the best player of 2021.

Lopez: Contracts deemed non-tradable no longer appear to be commercial. The albatross contract signed by Russell Westbrook has been postponed for each of the last three off-seasons. So if we go bold, it might be said that Houston can find someone to take on John Wall’s contract, or Oklahoma City will be able to move Kemba Walker elsewhere as well.

MacMahon: Thunder GM Sam Presti is figuring out a way – even after he’s moved the night’s contract term to Oklahoma City warehouses – to add one more first-round round selection during this offseason.