2021 Purdue Football: Is a mere bowling game enough?

# 5 State of Michigan (8-0)

In # 6 State of Ohio (7-1)

Northwestern (3-5) at Wrigley Field

Indiana (2-6)

As long as Purdue wins only one of these games, it will be played in some post-season bowl game. ESPN is currently showing them at the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium against Clemson or Louisville, so they are confident the win will come more. The Las Vegas Bowl, Redbox Bowl, Music City Bowl, Cheez-It Bowl and QuickLane Bowl are also opportunities. Regardless of the destination, Purdue arrives in the last month of the season not only alive for the bowl game, but also in popularity.

On paper, the Northwestern game seems to be the most likely way to get a sixth win. The Wildcats are 3-5, they’ve struggled in goal scoring all year, have been very slow out the gate in games, and overall it looks like a “bad northwest season”. Indiana has been a huge disappointment and is likely to drop out of the race when they come to West Lafayette (and probably even on a Sunday), but it’s a racing game and their defense is still dangerous. Purdue is likely to have a chance to beat Michigan State this weekend, while a win at Ohio State seems highly unlikely.

I would say we are favor to get another win. We’ve seen that Purdue’s attack isn’t great, but as long as it avoids rounds, the defense keeps it in games. Even a 2-2 score to 7-5 would be significant. That means we’ll get a bowl of eligibility before the Indiana game for the first time since 2007. It also guarantees a winning season and would open the door to eight wins for the first time since 2007.

It is clear that this is a major sign of progress. In the final season, Purdue was full of injuries and won 4-8. Last year was weird for everyone. However, is it enough to silence some of Jeff Brohm’s denigrants?

I know the goal is to be better than just participating in a bowl every year. Purdue has been trying to take this next step since about 2004, and has had great difficulty doing so. Purdue is also a very difficult place to win one conference championship in the last half century and only one 10 winning season ever. Still, some credit must be given for at least a significant improvement from season to season. Let’s see what happened:

· Purdue’s defense has improved significantly. Part of it is George Karlaftis ’whole season, which is simply causing trouble. Part of it comes from a vastly improved secondary and line of defense. The other big part is basically coaching skills. Coach Brohm noticed this was a big problem a year ago and fixed it. Winning the game is much easier when you hand over just 17 points per game compared to nearly 30 points, as in the last two seasons.

· Purdue’s defense has kept two teams in contact, the first since 2007. It got its first roadblock in 40 years at. UConn. Half of his games Purdue has now kept the team 7 points or less before the final quarter. That is significant.

· Purdue won the road game over the ranked team. Say what you say about Iowa, but they are still ranked after two ugly losses. Purdue had not won a ranked team abroad for 11 years, nor had he won a top 5 team on the away team for 47 years.

· Purdue has faced adversity and recovered. It looked bad offensively by going into a bye week after the Minnesota defeat, but fixed things up for a big win in Iowa. It looked bad offensive against Wisconsin, but returned to win in Nebraska. So far, it has avoided a real losing streak. Things are not entirely snowballs, unlike in previous years.

· On the last point, as long as Purdue wins the Northwestern game where it is popular, we will avoid a losing streak of at least three games for the first time since 2011.

· Brohm has shown adaptability. From three QB systems that were confused from the backfield of Iowa and Jackson Anthrop, to Zander Horvath’s wildcat clicks and adjusting the thin line of attack on the fly, Boilers are at least trying new things. It’s usually played well when it’s gaining momentum, especially in the second half of the games. We may not try all sorts of trick games like in 2017, but when Brohm gets a favorable match, he takes advantage of it.

· Purdue has won three road games and is likely to be favored in the fourth. It last won three road games in 2018, but before that it was 2006. If you’re looking for the last time Purdue won four road games (and if you like Wrigley as a road game), you have to go back to 1943, when Purdue won 9-0, it should have been the national champion and was on the road 5-0 (though Purdue won 3 -0-1 away from home in 1955) . If you count the bowl games, Purdue won four away games from Ross-Adele in 1979, 1980 and 1997. Winning in Wrigley and Bowl means Purdue has five wins at home in one season for the first time in almost 80 years.

· Finally, recruitment has improved significantly. Hazell’s best class was 68^th according to competitors. Brohm has gone 49, 26, 33, 77 and is now 34^th there. We don’t bring five stars with reckless rejection, but we also don’t fight to get out of the Big Ten basement. He is constantly at least at the top of Big Ten, which helps a lot. He has also brought things back in a decent class this season after the low number in 2021.

These are modest achievements compared to many other teams, but for Purdue? We look at the heights of the program, which have not been seen since many of the current players were toddlers. If it’s not a significant improvement, I don’t know what is.

However, we have been here before. The late Tiller years were there. Danny Hope’s years were there. Even the first two Brohm years were there. How do you take the next step? Going 6-6 or 7-5 this year is progress, but how can you change it to 8-4, 9-3 or even better? Coach Brohm’s record for a single goal game is still worrying. He was 8-15 coming this year there, but has improved it to a 10-16 win over Illinois and Nebraska as well as a defeat for Minnesota.

That question will not be answered until next year. Indiana State (FCS), Syracuse (currently 5-4) and Florida Atlantic (currently 5-3) present a challenging but not overwhelming non-conference schedule. Leaving Maryland and Indiana from the east are huge breaks, while getting Penn State in West Lafayette to start the year is a very curious match. I may look too far ahead, but eight (or more?) Wins next year are a very real possibility, as Purdue dominates Kirk Ferentz, Nebraska in Nebraska, and Illinois and Northwestern in both years of disappointment. With the toughest games seeming to be in Penn State, Minnesota and Wisconsin, it’s a good place to be.

The biggest obstacle to this is the line of attack. If we can protect quarterbackers and create something out of a running game, Purdue is much better. We saw a difference from Iowa to Wisconsin in this regard. However, I am encouraged that Brohm saw a major shortcoming (in defense) and corrected it this interim. This year is five because the line is worrying and it is difficult to improve overnight. A couple of freshmen got wet on the line in Nebraska at Josh Kaltenberger and Mahamane Musa. Cam Craig, Spencer Holstege and Gus Hartwig start as a second student. It’s a line that at least grows and improves. It gives some hope. I think the loss of four medical retirees in the summer was significant, but that depth is now growing in red shirts. it should be better next year, and if this year’s line is low, it’s exciting because it’s been “enough” so far.

I never thought Jeff Brohm would be fired after this season without a complete catastrophe like 1-11, mainly because of the terms of his contract. During the eight games, there is very little doubt that he will become a coach in 2022 except for something unexpected. Will the bowl game in 2021 buy him the year 2023 automatically? I think it makes it much more likely, but once again, the year 2022 can’t be a step backwards. At least one more win will at least get Brohm back to the level he was at the end of 2018 and allow him to continue that success next year. Two more regular season wins will give him the best regular season in West Lafayette and raise expectations for next year.

Let’s take a moment to have five wins in November for the first time since 2007.