Why the Cowboys went for a two-point conversion with 31 points against the Falcons

It wasn’t long ago when Dallas Cowboys was one of the NFL risk averse teams. Nearly 10 full seasons in the series as Jason Garrett’s head coach were often defined by playing on top of the safe, even though these decisions flew ahead of the basic odds. Garrett once belonged to the 4th and 1st overtime against Houston Texans, and never saw his attack get the ball back when Houston made the game a winning touchdown. Google “Jason Garrett Coward” and you will find many other examples of careful play that will destroy Dallas.

Garrett and the Cowboys parted ways before the start of the 2020 season, but Cowboys ’decision to hire Mike McCarthy still made people confused. McCarthy often did less and more Green Bay Packershead coach, but he has apparently learned from his past mistakes. Dallas is currently miles ahead of anyone else in the modest NFC East, and suddenly the Cowboys play like a team oozing self-assertion.

As an example: the Cowboys lead 34-3 Atlanta Falcons in the first half of Sunday’s week 10 match, Dallas still decided to go for a two-point conversion. Ezekiel Elliott ran into the ball and pushed the Dallas lead to 36-3. See Elliott’s transformation here.

Dallas was just blocked a pound to make a touchdown. The decision to move to a two-point conversion shocked publishers and fans across the league. Why would Dallas go for two when it was already 31 points away in the first half?

The answer comes from a strange NFL rule about PAT and what analysts say about converting two points after a penalty.

The Cowboys originally lined up for an extra point after the touchdown. Falcons was whistled for a penalty for PAT because there were too many men on the field. The penalty for that is “half the distance to the finish”, but the penalty can be applied to several places. The Cowboys could have moved their extra point business from the 15-yard line to the 7.5-yard line, or they could have tried a two-point conversion from the one-yard line (as opposed to the two-yard line). Yes, the teams are get to change their minds extra point vs. two-point conversion after penalty. McCarthy decided to go for two.

Percentage is in favor of moving to two after an extra point defense shot. It’s just easier to get one yard instead of two to convert two points. Still, you almost never see teams go over two with a 30-point increase, as the Cowboys did against the Falcons.

The Cowboys also finished 4th and 2nd when they were already 36-3 in the lead.

Maybe Dallas is just getting ready for the high-leverage situations they could see in the playoffs. The Cowboys cruise to the top of the low NFC East, and no one else in the division is even close. Dallas may need a two-point conversion of the switch or a fourth-handed drop in a single dropout. Going against the Falcons for two in the blast phase not only makes analytical sense, but also helps the team prepare for the playoffs.

It is clear that this is no longer a Jason Garrett team. Cowboys are really good and are not afraid to listen to math regardless of the game situation.