One statistic is the key to competing in Rutgers football

Rutgers football is 5-5 when they are going to the last two matches of the regular season. It’s been an up and down campaign that has made this team feel at times unpredictable this fall. When you dive a little deeper, the key to this season is that the Scarlet Knights have been very reliable against opponents who were either better or even better than on paper.

Four of the five losses this season have come against teams that are currently in the Top 20 in both the AP and Coaches polls. Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State are all among the top 10, and Wisconsin is just rising into the top 20. All four teams are also in the Top 20 of ESPN’s FPI rankings.

While Rutgers has the longest drought beating five-team ranked, the last time they lost to these four opponents in 2009 this season should come as no surprise. While Rutgers raised expectations by giving Michigan everything they could handle at the Big House was unexpected, so was the leap made by Spartans Mel Tucker in his second year.

In breaking the schedule, Rutgers is 5-1 in those games where they had a reasonable chance of winning. Not only is it impressive in Greg Schianos ’second banking term, but it is the key to making this program move forward sustainably.

Referring to ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), Rutgers is currently ranked 71st and has jumped 9th place after beating Indiana (2-8) on Saturday. They swapped places essentially with Hoosiers, who are in 80th place after dropping 10 seats. The Scarlet Knights also have victories in 69th place in Syracuse (5-5), No. 75 in Illinois (4-6) and No. 125 in Temple (3-7). Their Fifth victory came against Delaware (5-5), an FCS opponent.

By sweeping its out-of-conference schedule this season, the RU will not have to approach the 0.500 league record to get to the bowling alley.

Basically, Rutgers has run the business in games they favor or were close to a 50/50 match. The only exception was a 21-7 loss to Northwestern (3-7), the team currently ranked 89th in the FPI. While this was the most disappointing defeat of the 2021 season so far, it is clear that Rutgers was appalled after suffering three consecutive losses to the 10 biggest enemies. The Scarlet Knights also had several injuries in that game. It’s not an excuse to play so badly, but this team has shown great character in winning two of their next three matches right after May Day after the defeat.

The fact is, teams very rarely win every game they have either favored or have about a 50/50 chance of winning. Rutgers ’win in five of these six games is very impressive. In doing so, they are now one win away from the bowl match. Analytical data gives Rutgers a legitimate opportunity to do so in large part because they play Maryland in the final week of the season. The Scarlet Knights are likely to be favored in this game as the Terps are ranked 79th in the FPI and currently give the RU a 64.9% chance of winning the match.

While Schiano and the coaching staff need time to improve the talent and depth of the list to the level needed to challenge the best teams in Big Ten, they have shown that they can not only compete but also win now against the middle and bottom levels of the conference. . It’s a huge step forward for a program that had a 21-game losing streak in Big Ten before Schianos returned.

Despite the skewed losses that can still be hard to swallow, winning the games that they should reasonably have has brought know-how and respect back to Rutgers football. If it can go on, the Scarlet Knights should be in a bowl dispute from year to year, no matter how they do against blue blood. And this is the most encouraging statistic of all.