Top 15 NFL Bets: Cardinals spins on the road, Saints hangs out with Bucs and other choices from Jason La Canfora

So yes. I think we have a heater. Went 2-0 with our best bets last week and both survived easily. It took a while for the Seahawks to take the game down their throats, but when they succeeded, it was one-way traffic. And the Saints withdrew big in the second half as well.

Don’t sweat there. No chance of a bad shot.

This brings us to the best bets of the 19-13 season and also makes us 37-21 ATS in the last four weeks. We could all live with it. Worth it, I like this week’s list of games a lot more than a week ago, but as always, buyers beware of COVID’s so much uncertainty in this scenario, and now it’s even harder to see when a player might return. with the introduction of new protocols.

There are plenty of surprises, and the number of players on the COVID reserve list is astonishing, and not surprising given the virus situation in this country and the NFL’s reluctance to adopt general improved protocols earlier.

To put it mildly, there are plenty of variables. But despite this, I like the most this week:

Arizona Cardinals -13.5 at the Detroit Lions

Latest odds:

Detroit Lions +12.5

It’s a year of great spread, but I don’t think this is big enough. The Lions Super Bowl won the Vikings, but they have big virus problems and they don’t have much talent at all. Kyler Murray gives them blows, and I don’t see Kliff Kingsbury raising his foot in the attack at all. They try to pile up points and yards.

Arizona is also going to defend, and I suspect they’ll get at least one pick point from Jared Goff, a limited QB they know all too well. The Cardinals can both control the clock and also make a goal quickly in an explosive manner. … They do a lot of both in this matter. This has a real explosion of at least three points, and I don’t see much hope in the back door given Lions ’staffing constraints.

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New Orleans Saints +11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Latest odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -11

New Orleans is a strong team with an excellent defense and has seen a lot of Tom Brady. The Saints beat them once at Trevor Siemian in QB and Taysom Hill offers more stability there. New Orleans is healthier. We’ve seen Bucs give teams a chance to do a lot of junk time to get the games closer than they need to be.

This is the definition of a competitive game – which is usually close – and New Orleans really needs this to create a real playoff push. The Saints create some pressure. Saints plays ball control to keep this close enough and keep Brady off the field. Many advanced analytical models show that the Saints are an undervalued team that is better than its record and has had to withstand more external variables (transfer) and key injuries than most teams. But they’re getting healthier now, and Sean Payton is getting them to prepare and believe they can get another shock.

Green Bay Packers -5.5 in Baltimore Ravens

Latest odds:

Baltimore Ravens +6.5

These are two teams that are going in very different directions. Baltimore is constantly losing important starters and the Packers are constantly finding ways to make points. Ravens ’entire starting secondary game from week 1 is out of this game, and Aaron Rodgers reveals their weaknesses. Baltimore doesn’t get pressure without bleaching (and not enough bleaching), and it lacks the subsidiarity to take that risk now.

Defense QB, wearing a helmet, Chuck Clark is on the COVID list, and the very young minor is likely to be messed up without him. Green Bay is one of the NFL’s best big game defenders and Baltimore is almost the worst big game defense. And Ravens will almost certainly play a backup QB in their second NFL run (and first at home). This can get ugly and fast.

Tennessee Titans PK at the Pittsburgh Steelers

Latest odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers PK

The Titans are too strong in the graves for the Steelers. They can eat the Steelers O-line with their front four and they drive the ball down the Pittsburgh throat as all the entrepreneurs run the ball down the Steelers ’throat. The outer zone gives Pittsburgh scenes. Ryan Tannehill delights in a bad secondary stomach, and this is just the kind of defense that can beat and hit Big Ben without an explosion and despite his quick release.

The Steelers are not as good as their pedestrian record, and I expect them to fall to the bottom in the final weeks of the regular season as well. The extra holiday from last Thursday’s game may help some, but not enough. The Titans left a virtual goodbye against the Jags team last week and prayed that their coach would be fired (graciously he was), and Mike Vrabel will get them to meet that challenge.