College football best bets for Week 2: Austin Mocks model predicts overs for Alabama and Iowa

My college football betting model started off the season in solid fashion as we squeaked out a profit on our four plays. Illinois was a push that should have been a win (they’re dead to me), but we also won the over in Houston/UTSA in overtime so I can’t complain too much. Regardless, profit is profit and we move on.

This week the model is loading up. There are 11 plays with value. It seems the market is overreacting to some Week 1 results. It’s a lot of plays so Let’s hop right in but before we do, if you see any “edges” between my numbers and the market, it’s likely that I’ve left them off for some reason. That reason could be injury-related or something that I’m not comfortable with. My model is picking up like scheme changes or teams making drastic improvements from year to year.

Week 1 record: 2-1-1 (+1 unit)

Week 2 best bets

All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Louisville +6.5 (-110) at UCF

I’m going to chalk this line up to an overreaction to Louisville’s poor performance against Syracuse last week. I’ll take the value here as my model doesn’t see too much of a difference between these two teams and getting 6.5 is worth the price. Louisville moved the ball decently well last week but three turnovers, including an interception in the end zone, combined with getting stuffed on fourth down at the Syracuse 2-yard-line is how you end up with just seven points. I expect the Cards to bounce back here and wouldn’t be surprised if they win this game outright.

Worst line to bet: +6.5 (-110)

Model projection: UCF 31.8, Louisville 28.2

Alabama at Texas over 64.5 (-110)

There are some 64s out there so be sure to shop around but 64.5 is fine if you can grab -110. Alabama is going to score on just about everyone this season so I’m not too worried about them holding up their end of the bargain. Texas, on the other hand, should be able to do their part as well. Steve Sarkisian should have enough of a scheme and talent to be able to move the ball against the Crimson Tide here. Alabama rates as the best offense in college football in my model, and Texas joins them in the top 10. This will likely come down to how efficient Texas is in the red zone and if they don’t waste scoring opportunities, this one should fly over.

Worst line to bet: Over 64.5 (-110)

Model projection: Alabama 43.5, Texas 23.7

Missouri at Kansas State under 57.5 (-110)

Kansas State just threw for 95 yards on 23 passing plays against South Dakota. Sure, South Dakota has a pretty good FCS defense, but are they any better than Missouri’s defense? If they are, it’s not by much so I expect Kansas State to again struggle to pass and rely heavily on its rushing attack. Oh and they have a top 25 defense per my model. Missouri will certainly play at a fast pace, but the Tigers are also more efficient on the ground than they are in the air. Kansas State would like to dictate the pace of this game so I expect the Wildcats to be in no hurry to snap the ball. If Missouri can’t run a ton of plays, my model will be right projecting this game for the low 50s.

Worst line to bet: Under 56 (-110)

Model projection: Kansas State 30.1, Missouri 23.2

Virginia +4.5 (-110) at Illinois

We were on Illinois last week and they blew a cover (and Outright win) that they should have easily had and this week we are going to fade them. Simply put, this is too many points for a team that struggles to move the ball efficiently on offense. Virginia played a “close” game with Richmond last week, but the Spiders are a solid FCS squad. My model makes this game about a field goal and this game will rely on the ability of the Cavalier offense to stay on schedule and not waste scoring opportunities.

Worst line to bet: Virginia +4 (-110)

Model projection: Illinois 30.9, Virginia 27.9

Houston +3 (-110) at Texas Tech

Houston’s offense had a poor showing in Week 1. They were way too tentative for my liking on offense, but UTSA is a good team. My model doesn’t see too much of a difference between Texas Tech and UTSA so why the huge difference in line? Maybe this is an overreaction to Houston looking poor in Week 1, but this game should be closer to a pick ’em. If this is under a field goal for you, I don’t mind taking the ML bet if you get a price at +120 or better.

Worst line to bet: Houston +3 (-110)

Model projection: Texas Tech 33, Houston 31

Iowa State at Iowa over 40.5 (-110)

Ok, hold your nose but we are zigging while others zag here. Iowa famously scored seven points last week but failed to reach the end zone and the Hawkeyes have been getting made fun of all over social media for their pitiful offense. I thought about possibly leaving this off considering how bad they look but getting under 41 has made me get involved. My model makes this 45 as I don’t think Iowa State’s defense is to the level it’s been in years past, but then again, it’s Iowa and it might not matter. Hopefully Iowa has some defensive or special teams scores to get this ticket to the window. This game has the potential to be another single-digit scoring affair so do yourself a favor and watch something else when this game is on and check the score every once in a while on your phone.

Worst line to bet: Over 41 (-110)

Model projection: Iowa 23.9, Iowa State 21.1

UNLV +13 (-110) at Cal

UNLV is live here as Cal’s offense has been as bad as it gets for a Power 5 school over the past few seasons. UNLV hit the transfer portal for Ricky White (Michigan State) and it paid off dividends last week as he went for 182 receiving yards and two scores against Idaho State last week. I think this is a case where the market is slow to catch up to the change in Talent for UNLV this season after going 2-10 last season. As for Cal, the defense should be great but a bad offense laying 13 points is tough to pass up considering the upside of UNLV’s offense.

Worst line to bet: UNLV +13 (-110)

Model projection: Cal 28, UNLV 5/17

UAB -6.5 (-110) at Liberty

The post-Malik Willis era started off rough as Liberty needed four overtimes to get past lowly Southern Miss. On the other side, UAB is going to be at the top of Conference USA all season and the Blazers just dominated Alabama A&M 59-0. I know that’s not all that impressive, but I’m certainly a fan of teams that just absolutely demolish bad teams. UAB passed the test. My model is pretty high on the Blazers here and I’ll gladly fade Liberty as a lot of their Priors are based on having an NFL prospect at quarterback.

Worst line to bet: UAB -7 (-110)

Model projection: UAB 29.3, Liberty 21.3

Arizona State at Oklahoma State Under 57.5 (-110)

I’ll fade the Spencer Sanders hype. I’ve bought into it before and it always seems to backfire at some point and I’ll take my chances here. Oklahoma State’s defense looks to have taken a step back from last year, but I’ll fade that Logic as well, at least for another week. They held Central Michigan in check for most of the game last week before things got really loose in garbage time. Arizona State is also a team that projects to be much stronger on defense than offense, per my model (67th offense, 45th defense). If Sanders comes back to earth along with both defenses being the strength in this game, low 50s is entirely possible.

Worst line to bet: Under 57 (-110)

Model projection: Oklahoma State 31.9, Arizona State 22.6

Virginia Tech -3 (-110) vs. Boston College

Re-occurring theme here but this is possibly an overreaction to Virginia Tech’s loss to Old Dominion last week. Per my postgame win expectancy model, Virginia Tech would expect to win that game 92% of the time. Penalties, turnovers and special teams all let Virginia Tech down last week and it was to such an extent that it’s unlikely to happen again. After all, Boston College lost to Rutgers last week and I’m not sure which loss is worse. This number should be above a field goal as my model thinks the Hokies get back on track against a horrible Boston College offense.

Worst line to bet: Virginia Tech -3 (-110)

Model projection: Virginia Tech 24.8, Boston College 19.2

BYU -3.5 (-110) vs. Baylor

Hop on the Cougar CFP train (I’m kidding, maybe). BYU was really impressive in its Week 1 win on the road at South Florida. My model is much lower on Baylor than the market so it’s not shocking to find value here, but I’m not a believer in the Bears’ offense. I think BYU’s offense will be too much in this game and Baylor won’t be able to keep pace on the road. Maybe Dave Aranda can scheme these guys up to stay in the game, but by the end of four quarters, my model doesn’t think it’s likely Baylor stays within a field goal.

Worst line to bet: BYU -4 (-110)

Model projection: BYU 29.1, Baylor 21.9

Bonus pick but the line already moved too far during the editing process

Colorado at Air Force over 47.5 (-110)

Per gameonpaper.com, Colorado surrendered 0.47 EPA/rush against TCU last week which rates as one of the worst performances (100th percentile) among other college rushing performances. Now they have to prepare for the triple option and a Sneaky good Air Force offense? The issue with playing an over involving an option team is always that the clock will be churning but Air Force should be able to move the ball with ease against this putrid Buffs defense.

Let this be a lesson in playing lines early in the week when you see an advantage. The total has moved north of 48, which was the worst line to bet for this game.

Model projection: Air Force 32.8, Colorado 15.9

(Photo of Spencer Petras: Jeffrey Becker/USA Today)