College football best bets, picks, favorites, underdogs, over/under

All spreads and totals were taken Wednesday from the Consensus odds at VegasInsider.com unless noted. All times Eastern is Saturday unless noted.

NFL best bets for Week 5: A Jared Goff-Bailey Zappe shootout? Why not?

Well. 17 TCU (-7) at No. 19 Kansas, noon, Fox Sports 1

With their first 5-0 start and first national ranking since 2009, the Jayhawks have been one of the fun stories of the season, and ESPNs College GameDay will be making its first trip to Lawrence for Saturdays game against the Horned Frogs. Unfortunately, they’re about to hit a speed bump.

Kansas was lucky to reach this rarefied air. In this past weekend’s 14-11 win over Iowa State, the Jayhawks simply couldn’t get the Cyclones off the field. And were it not for some poor kicking on Iowa States part, this game against TCU probably would be taking on far less meaning. The Cyclones had drives of 14, 12 and eight plays end with a missed field goal, including an errant 37-yarder with 32 seconds left that would have tied the score. Iowa State converted on 4 of 5 fourth-down attempts, and Kansas’ opponents have a success rate of 43.96 percent on third and fourth down, which ranks 102nd in the country (TCU’s offense, meanwhile, ranks 13th in that category).

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The Horned Frogs couldn’t convert either fourth-down attempt this past weekend against Oklahoma, but it didn’t matter: TCU clobbered the Sooners, 55-24, a score that could have been Worse had the Horned Frogs not eased off the throttle in the second half . TCU features four Offensive players who average at least 6.5 yards per carry, and three of them running backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado and quarterback Max Duggan combined to average a gaudy 15 yards per carry and score five times against the Sooners.

When he wasn’t rushing for 116 yards against the Sooners, Duggan somehow found the time to complete 22 of 32 passes for 3o2 yards and three scores, so it’s not as if TCU is lacking balance. Kansas defense Ranks 96th nationally in passing success rate, and while its offense has been able to put points on the board, I’m not sure that’s going to be enough against a TCU defense that ranks seventh in overall success rate. Give me the Horned Frogs.

Well. 13 Kentucky (-10) vs. South Carolina, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

The Wildcats should have beaten Mississippi this past weekend. Their final three drives all ventured into Rebels territory, but Kentucky turned it over on Downs once, fumbled twice, came away with zero points and lost, 22-19. Take away that bum luck and the Wildcats would still be a top 10 team, and they probably would have been favored by more here against a fairly pedestrian Gamecocks squad. Instead, they were getting some value on the favorite.

South Carolina (3-2) has beaten 1-4 Georgia State, 1-5 Charlotte and 1-3 Football Championship Subdivision team South Carolina State, and it Ranks eighth in rushing success rate (one of the few advanced stats where it excels). But much of that is based on the wins over those latter two bad teams, when the Gamecocks averaged 6.7 yards per carry and rushed for a combined 480 yards. In its season opener against Georgia State (a team that now ranks 118th in rushing yards allowed per game), South Carolina managed just 79 rushing yards and averaged 2.5 yards per carry. In losses to Georgia and Arkansas by a combined 55 points the Gamecocks averaged a meager 2.2 yards per carry.

Kentucky’s defense ranks ninth nationally in rushing success rate. Yes, the Wildcats allowed Mississippi to Rush for 186 yards, but took away Quinshon Judkins’ 48-yard touchdown run in the first quarter and the Rebels averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, two yards below their season average.

South Carolinas defense Ranks 117th in success rate, and I see the Wildcats offense getting more into a groove as running back Chris Rodriguez 6.7 yards per carry and 26 rushing touchdowns over the previous three seasons works his way back from his season-opening four-game suspension. Rodriguez rushed for 72 yards and a score against a pretty good Ole Miss defense. Add it all up, and Kentucky covers again.

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Akron (+11.5) at Ohio University, 2 p.m., ESPN3

Were going with a bit of a deep cut here; these are two of the nations worst teams (Ohio Ranks 121st in terms of overall SP+ efficiency; Akron is 127th). But are there 12 points separating them? Probably not.

The Zips have shown some improvement since getting pummeled by Michigan State and Tennessee by a combined 115-6 in consecutive September games. Quarterback DJ Irons left the game against the Spartans with an injury in the second quarter and labored through the pain against the Volunteers, but he threw for three scores and ran for 105 yards and another touchdown in this past weekends three-point loss to Bowling Green . Irons might be able to find similar success against an Ohio team that gave up 398 passing yards and 77 rushing yards to Kent State quarterback Collin Schlee this past weekend.

About that game: Kent State needed overtime to beat Ohio despite being a 13-point favorite, but the result was a little deceiving. The Golden Flashes piled up 736 yards and 36 first downs and averaged 7.7 yards per play, but they fumbled six times (losing two of them) and had two other drives end with missed field goals, one of them with the score tied at the end of regulation. The Bobcats also moved the ball plenty they had a 300-yard passer, 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver but punted eight times and managed all of 24 points, including overtime.

Both of these teams are plainly awful: Akron needed overtime to beat FCS St. Francis (Pa.) in its season opener and Ohio allowed FCS Fordham to score 52 points on Sept. 24, a game in which the Bobcats needed a Miracle comeback to win (they scored 14 points in the final 52 seconds, the last touchdown coming on a 42-yard fumble recovery as the clock expired). But Ill take the Zips to be just good enough to keep it close.

Army at No. 15 Wake Forest, 7:30 pm, ESPN3: Wake Forest team total over 42.5 points (DraftKings)

The Demon Deacons and Black Knights played a memorably Batty game last season, with the Demon Deacons winning, 70-56, in a game that featured more than 1,200 yards of offense (Wake Forest averaged 12.3 yards every time it snapped the ball, while Army averaged a mere 7.2 yards per play).

What if I told you that Wake Forests offense is just as spry this season, while Armys defense has gotten demonstrably worse? The Demon Deacons have scored at least 31 points in all five games this season, and three of those games were against Power Five defenses. The Black Knights, meanwhile, have given up 38, 41 and 31 to the three Football Bowl Subdivision teams it has played, and its not like those three teams (Coastal Carolina, Texas San Antonio and Georgia State) are known for having truly Dynamite offenses .

This season, Army Ranks 130th in defensive success rate, 127th in rushing yards allowed per game, 120th in rushing yards allowed per carry and 108th in yards allowed per pass attempt (8.0). The Black Knights give up 3.86 points per drive, and only four teams are worse.

Wake Forests RPO mesh attack should find little to stop it. The Demon Deacons rank 10th in passing success rate, and quarterback Sam Hartman has thrown 15 touchdown passes against only two interceptions (the same number of picks that Army has compiled as a team). Wake Forests rushing attack hasn’t done much this season, but now it goes up against an Army rushing defense that is 130th nationally in terms of success rate. The Demon Deacons probably can score at will here, easily getting over this team total.