Where have all the 5-5 points gone?

Injuries have been the main issue for the Colorado Avalanche, as the team has already lost almost 200 man games this season, and 35 different players have been used in the lineup during the first two months of play. However, a very underplayed headline is the fact that 5-on-5 scoring has been an issue all year, even before the injuries started happening. The hot power play, which at one point was at the top of the league, has masked the problem as well.

Currently, the Avalanche are second last in the NHL in 5-5 goals with 43 goals, which is just the best cheat. Chicago Blackhawks. The New Jersey Devils leads the league in comparison with 75 goals. Last season’s final Stanley Cup The Champions finished fifth in scoring with 198 goals, which is 2.41 per game. Their pace currently stands at a paltry 1.53, which would translate to just 124 goals scored at 5-5 this season.

Goals lost

The following table shows all Avalanche players who have scored at least two goals in the 2022-23 5v5 season, along with their 60%. Not only is the injury bug limiting the goals, but outside of Mikko Rantanen, the puck going into the net is depressed for all players.

Comparing that to what the Avalanche got in 2021-22 shows the scoring problem this team has endured all season.

Here’s a clear loss from the departure of some of Colorado’s top goal producers, Andre Burakovsky and Nazem Kadri. Artturi Lehkonen and Evan Rodrigues are expected to pick up some slack, but that’s a huge gap to fill. It is clear that here the constant absence of Gabe Landeskogs also affects the lack of scoring.

The same 11 goals they squeezed out of Nicolas Aube-Kubel’s bottom-six season feels like a pipe dream. What he brought in at just over $1 million in cap hit seems to have gone unappreciated and certainly hasn’t been replaced. Only Martin Kaut, Ben Meyers and Dryden Hunt have scored once in a 5-5 game this season.

And then there’s the slump from some of the team’s top producers. Nathan MacKinnon has yet to get hot and produce much in a 5-5 game with just four goals. With Cale Makari, it’s fair to wonder if his eye-popping goal output last season is the outlier of his career.

Reaching goals

One of the most important analytical indicators when talking about goal production is shooting percentage and as a team the Avalanche are easily dead last in the league at 6.2% in their 5-on-5 game. There is optimism that the percentage will normalize and approach last season’s 8.9% mark. But there’s a danger this year’s disparity will be written off to bad luck and natural shooting fluctuations, with injuries and depth issues equally to blame. The Avalanche are getting fewer shots on net as they have dropped from 34.5 per game to 31.6, which also continues their shooting percentage issues. Low-skilled players naturally struggle to convert their chances and thus lower the overall team’s percentage in the process.

Nathan MacKinnon’s low shooting percentage seems to be the story every season. With his talent and shot, MacKinnon creates that he always gets hot and starts filling the net. But his shooting percentage has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career, even after MacKinnon’s rise to superstardom. His current 5.7% at 5-5 is a far cry from last season’s 11.3%, but in 2020-21 MacKinnon finished the year shooting 6.3%. His 0.65 goals per 60 this season matches the 0.66 he also had two seasons ago. So while he may have more individual success this season, it’s hardly enough to pull the team out of its shooting percentage rut.

Aside from getting consistent producer Landeskog back in the lineup, there is hope on the horizon. The continued development and improvement of offense from the likes of Alex Newhook and Ben Meyers will lead to more pucks in the back of the net. Artturi Lehkonen is clearly below his career pace, currently shooting 5%, so an increase is expected from him as well. Makar’s 3.8% shooting is one of the lowest on this year’s team and he also has more to offer than superstar talent. Rantanen’s blistering pace is something he compared to two years ago, and he’s a consistently high-percentage shooter, where his 17.4% isn’t wildly above career norms and could continue for most of the season.

So a natural upward regression is reasonable to expect. The Avalanche aren’t likely to finish in the top five in 5-5 this season, but can they even get back into the top half of the league much less the top five with the deficits already created and the firepower diminished? That’s the question that could define the 2022-23 season for the Colorado Avalanche.