The Black Caps bowling attack is intriguing as the Cricket World Cup draws to a close

First ODI: Black Caps vs Pakistan

Where: Karachi National Stadium; When: Monday, 10.30am [NZ time]

Live broadcast: Sky Sports 1

ANALYSIS: The Black Caps’ bowling attack will be a major area of ​​intrigue as they build up to the Cricket World Cup in India later this year, which begins with three ODIs in Pakistan this week.

Mitchell Santners name may be inked as their left-arm spinner, but where he bats is the key aspect.

Trent Boult is another bowler whose name can be written down immediately, although his new status as a free agent means there must be some uncertainty.

The fact that coach Gary Stead and second selector Gavin Larsen have considered 11 screenings for the series in Pakistan and India this month without another left-arm option suggests he is locked in.

Stead and Larsens’ plans for the coming fortnight were dealt two blows last week, first when Adam Milne was ruled out due to preparation concerns and a fresh side strain, then when Matt Henry suffered an abdominal injury in the drawn Test series.

This has left Tim Southee, Lockie Ferguson, Blair Tickner (who replaced Milne), Doug Bracewell (who replaced Henry) and Henry Shipley, who have been called up partly because of his all-round potential as seam options for Pakistan.

Jacob Duffy is set to replace Southee when the team head to India next week, having been unable to travel earlier after recovering from Covid-19.

Kyle Jamieson is another seam bowler in the mix but will not feature in either series as he focuses on returning from a back injury last June with Auckland Aces in the Twenty20 Super Smash.

How many of those bowlers will make it when the World Cup squad is named later this year?

It looks like there will be five at most, Bracewell, Duffy, Milne, Ben Sears (who was said to be out through injury when Bracewell was called up) and Tickner, who will probably be watching from the sidelines.

Duffy and Tickners have only had ODIs against Ireland, the Netherlands and Scotland so far, and while Milne played his first ODIs for five years against India in November, his fresh injury problems this month have denied him a much-needed chance to press on further. .

Ferguson and Henry joined Boult to form the Black Caps seam attack at the last World Cup in 2019 and it would be a shock if either player missed out this year.

Southee was an extra seam that campaign, dropped from the first-choice XI the previous summer, but has developed his white-ball game since then.

Jamieson made his debut in early 2020 and although he has only played eight ODIs, he impressed in them just as he has in cricket. He should be back in action by the time the Black Caps host Sri Lanka at the end of March in their last remaining home series before the World Cup, but those could be the only matches he plays before the final squad is selected.

The Black Caps’ next ODI assignment after that is five matches in Pakistan and April and May, where they are expected to be without Indian Premier League players like Jamieson.

Then there are four ODIs in England and three in Bangladesh in September and October, but the World Cup squad is likely to be finalized before the players embark on what could ultimately be four months.

Could all five of Boult, Ferguson, Henry, Southee and Jamieson survive?

It is possible but equally possible that one of these big names might not be in the squad depending on how the balance between all-rounders, spinners and seamers has been struck.

There will be three spinners, like the last time the World Cup was played in India in 2011, with Ish Sodhi and Michael Bracewell close to a certainty alongside Santner.

They are the only ones to have played for New Zealand since the last World Cup, although Glenn Phillips has been called upon at times. If he can be relied upon as a bowling option, Bracewell’s importance may diminish, with the all-rounder still having little to prove against great opposition.

If Bracewell makes it through, he could also serve as a backup top-six hitter, potentially freeing up a spot elsewhere. It is more likely to include six batters, one spare, three spinners including Santner and Bracewell and five seamers.

But are any of those seamers also versatile? Colin de Grandhomme is retired and Jimmy Neesham is unavailable this month as he plays alongside Boult in the new T20 competition in the United Arab Emirates. Neesham could still have a role to play and could potentially take up an extra batting slot as well, although his form took a nosedive in the back half of 2022.

The need to look beyond the two has led to the selection of Shipley, although he is more of a bowler who bats and has mostly showcased that side of his game in first-class cricket. Stead has indicated the Canterbury product will get a chance over the next six games and could be a big factor if he impresses.

Jamieson is the only other seamer who would look comfortable at No.8, although using a Bracewell-Santner spin tandem or including Neesham would make that a non-issue.

All-rounders create options and Daryl Mitchell cannot be forgotten in this conversation as he starred with the ball for the Black Caps in the last ODI after the previous 12 matches where he was hardly called upon.

If nothing else, picking five starters from Michael Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Boult, Ferguson, Henry, Jamieson and Southee would make big decisions.

As for the batting, the Black Caps head into the Pakistan series having used the same top six in their last four matches: Finn Allen, Devon Conway, Kane Williamson, Tom Latham, Mitchell and Phillips.

Henry Nicholls will be in Pakistan with them, while Mark Chapman will replace Williamson as the team head to India, suggesting they are next in line with Will Young on the fringes of the selection frame.

While veteran opener Martin Guptill has expressed his desire to remain selectable despite handing back his NZ Cricket contract, the fact that he was dropped beforehand makes a comeback difficult to imagine.

The big question mark is that Allen, Mitchell and Phillips have played a combined 25 ODI innings, so while they have been backed recently, they have no records to fall back on.

Allen, Conway, Williamson and Phillips have IPL contracts, so other batsmen should get a chance to make their case on the second tour of Pakistan.

Black Caps ODI tour of Pakistan and India

Group

Kane Williamson (c), Tom Latham (vc), Finn Allen, Doug Bracewell, Michael Bracewell, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Daryl Mitchell, Henry Nicholls, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner, Henry Shipley, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Blair Tickner .

Mark Chapman and Jacob Duffy will replace Williamson and Southee in India.

Lighting fixtures

Monday, January 9 at 10:30 p.m.: First ODI against Pakistan? Karachi

Wednesday, January 11 at 10:30 p.m.: Second ODI against Pakistan; Karachi

Friday, January 13 at 10:30 p.m.: ODI v Pakistan; Karachi

Wednesday, January 18 at 9 p.m.: First ODI v India; Hyderabad

Saturday, January 21 at 9 p.m.: Second ODI v India; Raipur

Tuesday, January 24 at 9 p.m.: Third ODI against India; Indore