As the Australian Open begins, all eyes are on Rafael Nadal

MELBOURNE, Australia The first collective gasp of this year’s Australian Open took place on Thursday afternoon, four days before the tournament officially began.

The rumor came right at the beginning men’s singles draw when Jack Drapers name appeared in second place in the 128 man field. That meant Drapers’ first-round opponent was guaranteed to be Rafael Nadal, the reigning Australian Open champion and No. 1 seed without the injured Carlos Alcaraz.

The buzz in the room was a sign of the gathering power of the left-handed Drapers 21-year-old Briton, he is fit and up to 40th in the world, but also reflects Nadal’s disorganization.

One of the greatest champions of all sports, Nadal has lost six of his last seven tour singles matches. She struggles with her timing, confidence and even her composure, having been beaten by Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round of the series. US Open; Tommy Paul in the first round of the Paris Masters; Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime, in round robin matches at the ATP Finals; and Cameron Norrie and Alex de Minaur in the recently concluded United Cup team event.

None of those six men have reached a Grand Slam singles final, and neither has Hubert Hurkacz, who handed Nadal his latest defeat, albeit only in a practice match at Rod Laver Arena on Thursday night in front of a few thousand spectators (and a chair umpire).

Hurkacz, a flashy shooter with a flamboyant personality, is no pushover. He is ranked No. 10 in Melbourne and will forever be the last man to face and defeat Nadal’s friendly rival Roger Federer in singles.

Hurkacz beat Federer in straight sets in the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2021 and looked significantly more relaxed and relaxed on Thursday night than Nadal, who kept throwing worried looks at his head coach Carlos Moya after missing ground balls and first serves.

Rafa is certainly vulnerable, said Todd Woodbridge, the Australian former star who is now an analyst on Australian television. He had that distant look for the exchange against Tiafoe at the US Open, and it looked like he had it again in his match against de Minaur last week.

But as Woodbridge and every other tennis fan has learned repeatedly over the past 19 years, you can’t count out a player with Nadal’s talent and guts. He has repeatedly risen from the depths, most recently at the 2022 French Open, which he entered injured and collapsed, but then managed to win his 14th men’s singles title at Roland Garros.

However, another championship run in Melbourne seems much less likely. The opening hurdle is high for the 6-foot-1 Draper, who advanced to Friday’s semifinal match in Adelaide.

Jack Draper, the son of Roger Draper, the former chief executive of the Britains Lawn Tennis Association, was once considered unlikely to reach the top level because of his movement. But he has improved his speed and field coverage significantly in recent seasons.

It’s great to play on a big court against him; he’s a great champion,” Draper said in Adelaide of his first chance to play Nadal. Whatever happens, it’s a special occasion for me. I’m still very young in my career so it’s great to get experiences like this and be exposed to playing Rafa in a big arena.

Get past Draper and Nadal could face rising American Brandon Nakashima in the second round, Tiafoe in the fourth round and former No. 1 Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals in what would be a rematch of their fast-paced, five-set Australian affair. Open final last year.

Nadal’s experience, grit and ability to solve problems in best-of-five matches should not be overlooked, and he has focused on shortening points and coming to the net in his pre-tournament sessions this week. He pushed forward often against Hurkacz on Thursday.

I need to win matches, for sure, but the preparation is going quite well, I train a lot and I’m in good shape, Nadal said. Then you have to show it in the matches in the official tournaments, but I’m sure if I have a positive practice in the last week, why not?

Draper is not the only British player with a high-profile match in Melbourne. Andy Murray, Nadal’s contemporary and former No. 1, will face former Wimbledon finalist Matteo Berrettini in the opening round. Emma Raducanu, the big surprise US Open women’s champion in 2021, could face seventh-seeded Coco Gauff in the second round if both win their opening matches (and if Raducanu’s injured ankle continues to heal and allow her to enter the tournament).

Gauff, 18, struggled with his forehand and confidence at the end of the 2022 season but had a productive Offseason and won the singles title in Auckland, New Zealand on Sunday. The event was played indoors and outdoors, often due to rain, and many of the other leading Australian Open contenders were absent.

The favorite in the women’s draw remains No. 1 Iga Swiatek, despite her lopsided and emotional loss to American Jessica Pegula in the United Cup. But Swiatek, who faces German all-rounder Jule Niemeier in the opening round, is in a tricky part of the draw. Her eighth is Grand Slam singles stars Bianca Andreescu and Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins, who lost in the final in Melbourne last year to Ashleigh Barty, who retired last March.

There are also newcomers, including 15-year-old qualifier Brenda Fruhvirtova, the youngest woman in the tournament and part of a big wave of young talent from the Czech Republic that includes her sister Linda Fruhvirtova, 17, who is also making the Australian. Open singles debut.

Thursday’s draw brought another rarity: a first-round match between two former Australian Open singles champions: Belarusian veteran Victoria Azarenka, who won in 2012 and 2013, and American Sofia Kenin, who won in 2020 and has since dropped out of the top 100. That match was all the more special considering Azarenka and Kenin are the only Australian Open women’s singles champions in the draw. Seven-time Australian Open champion Serena Williams is now retired (or at least advanced). Two-time champion Naomi Osaka and 2016 champion Angelique Kerber are pregnant, and so is Barty, although it was after her surprise retirement at the age of 25.

A lot can change in a hurry in tennis, as Nadal well knows, and this year’s tournament is already a sea change from past years, with Novak Djokovic in the draw after being expelled by the Australian government on the eve of the 2022 event because he was unvaccinated against the coronavirus.

Now, following a change in government policy and winning a warm-up event in Adelaide, Djokovic, still unvaccinated, can chase his 10th Australian Open singles title. He will face unseeded Spaniard Roberto Carballs Baena in the opening round, opposite his long-time rival Nadal.

Based on current form, Djokovic’s 22nd major singles title sounds far more plausible than Nadal’s 23rd.