Can tanks change the war in Ukraine, and why does Zelenskyy want them?

“They not only strengthen us on the battlefield, but also send the right signal to other partners.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s words after British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak told him in a phone call on Saturday that Britain would send 14 Challenger tanks and more artillery support.

The Russian embassy in London said the delivery of the tanks would prolong the standoff, lead to more casualties, including civilians, and was evidence of “London’s increasingly apparent involvement in the conflict”.

Huge decisions are expected that will affect this now almost a year old conflict.

Could sending tanks help Kiev break the deadlock, could they just escalate the war, what other tanks are available and why are they so important to Zelensky?

Challenger 2

The Challenger 2 is a tank designed to attack other tanks and has been in service with the British Army since 1994. It weighs 62.5 tonnes and is armed with a 120 mm rifled gun and a 7.62 mm chain gun.

Last year, Britain sent 14 of them to Poland as part of a deal to help Ukraine by freeing up capacity in Warsaw to supply Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Kiev.

The Ukrainian army mainly uses these T-72 tanks. However, Zelenskyy’s team has long been eyeing mass-produced German Leopard II tanks. They are used by many European allies, including Germany, Poland, Turkey and Finland.

Top tank of the West

This Leopard tank is considered one of the finest in the West. The German defense company Krauss-Maffei Wegmann has built more than 3,500 units since production began in 1978.

It weighs more than 60 tons, has a 120 mm smoothbore gun and can hit targets up to 5 km away. Twenty countries use this tank, which means that several of them could offer their own to support Ukraine. This would also facilitate the management of Kiev’s maintenance and crew training.

However, the re-export of Leopards tanks requires the approval of the German government, so other countries cannot send them to Ukraine until they receive the green light from Berlin. Warsaw and Helsinki have already suggested that they want to supply Kyiv.

Effect

Polish President Andrzej Duda said last week that he hoped several tanks from Western allies “will soon sail along different routes to Ukraine and be able to strengthen Ukraine’s defenses.”

Germany has played cautiously. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been more reluctant to arm Ukraine than other countries such as the United States and Great Britain. But some German officials appear to be softening ahead of a meeting of Ukraine’s allies in Ramstein, Germany, next Friday, where the governments will announce their latest pledges of military support.

Russia downplays the arrival of tanks on Ukrainian soil. Its embassy in London said the tanks would not turn “the tide of the battlefield” but would “become a legitimate major target for Russian artillery”.

So what’s all the fuss about these vehicles? A former British tank commander said Western armor could “tip the balance” for Ukraine and would send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that “nothing is off the table”.

Although the Challenger 2 has not been updated since the 1990s, both Western tanks are considered more modern, better protected, more reliable and faster than most others around the world.

Regardless of intentions and demand, the supply of these tanks will be critical if Ukraine is to increase its offensive capabilities this spring as Russia ramps up its offensive as the anniversary of the start of the conflict approaches.

Availability

Three decades after the end of the Cold War, tanks and other heavy weapons are scarce in most of the West. Many countries drastically reduced their armies after the fall of communism. Germany has about 350 Leopard 2 tanks. They had about 4,000 main battle tanks at the height of the Cold War. It is impossible to buy large quantities of Leopard 2 tanks quickly.

The German defense industry is forbidden by law to manufacture them for storage. Countries ordering new tanks must be prepared to wait two to three years for delivery. Even if production is ramped up, experts say it could take at least two years for the first new tanks to leave the factory.

Are there other tanks available?

The United States has thousands of M1 Abrams tanks built by General Dynamics, but they are considered unsuitable for Ukraine because they are powered by gas turbine engines. The Leopard 2 is powered by a more economical engine that burns diesel, which is easier to obtain than kerosene.

Although France uses Leclerc tanks, it announced on Friday that it will supply “AMX 10-RC” vehicles to Ukraine, although some experts describe it as an armored vehicle rather than a tank. Ukraine and France have claimed that this is a light tank.

Balance

Western officials are trying to strike a delicate balance between allowing Ukraine to defend itself and not supplying weapons that could embolden Kiev to attack Russia or draw NATO into conflict with Moscow.

Although Moscow has condemned the increase in arms deliveries to Ukraine, this has not led to military consequences for the West. This has made governments more open to the idea of ​​sending tanks.

Zelenskyy is closely following next Friday’s meeting with about 50 countries in Germany. It will be a big test to gauge where everyone is and how willing they are to provide more military support to Ukraine.

In his weekend evening speech, Zelenskyy emphasized that tanks were high on his wanted list. “That’s really what’s needed. And I believe similar decisions will continue to be made by other partners who understand why such evil cannot be given a single chance.”