Iowa football passing game: 3 areas the Hawkeyes need to improve in 2023

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Questions continue to swirl around Fortress Kinnick about possible changes to Iowa’s coaching staff or whether the Hawkeyes will continue with the status quo for another season.

Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz remains a public lightning rod for a restive fan base as a symbol of the worst offense in college football. The stats reflect playmaker and schemer, both of which are part of Ferentz’s job description. There are also other factors such as talent, experience and health that played into offensive performance that were beyond the coordinators’ control.

Whether Ferentz will return for a seventh season calling plays or leave for another job is currently speculation. The point of discussion is that Iowas offense, which ranked in the 120s in most areas, needs improvement just to complement an elite defensive scheme.

Every year you go into the offseason and look at the things you did well, the things you didn’t do well, Brian Ferentz said before the Music City Bowl. How do we highlight the things we did well? how we can improve the things we didn’t do well.

Some progress has been made. In other respects, not so much. And then on the other hand, I think we’ve regressed in some areas. The January-February challenge, which has really started throughout December, is to identify all three areas and figure out the best plan of attack for next year.

Every aspect of Iowas crime remains under review, and others will be investigated in the coming days and weeks. For today, here are three areas of the passing game that require evaluation before the spring.

Cade McNamara played three seasons at Michigan before transferring to Iowa. (Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

Strict end use

Iowa’s passing game runs on its tight ends, just like last fall. But the Hawkeyes were more adept as a tight end in the offense in 2017 and 2018, with TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant combining for 27 touchdowns over those two seasons. Perhaps it’s unfair to compare the current tight ends to two first-round talents, one of whom earned his second Pro Bowl nod. But Sam LaPorta will likely be in the top 80 in April, with similar ability and greater toughness than his predecessor. Luke Lachey has comparable potential, a bigger frame and perhaps a higher athletic ceiling than all three. Michigan transfer Erick All also fits into the same category.

So what did Iowa do differently with Hockenson and Fant that didn’t translate in 2022, but for Lachey and everyone else this fall? The staff attacked downfield with previous tight ends, especially Hockenson. In his third start in 2018, Hockenson caught 17 passes for 379 yards and two touchdowns. No tight end has had more third-down receiving yards in a season since 2013, and 15 of his 17 catches went for first downs. No one nationally had more third-down catches of 25 yards than Hockenson (seven).

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There are reasons Iowa could play this way in 2018 and not so much in 2022. Fant and Hockenson were complemented on the field by a stretch Z receiver in Ihmir Smith-Marsete and a tough coin-pass catcher in Nick Easley. But more importantly, Iowa had Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs, giving quarterback Nate Stanley time to attempt passes downfield. Hockenson was also able to target the ball with height better than most receivers, and the two tight ends often matched up in one coverage for each other.

In 2022, injuries decimated Iowas receiving corps. In the Hawkeyes’ first two games, only one scholarship receiver was available, and that was 5-foot-5 Arland Bruce IV (who has since transferred to Oklahoma State). There was no consistent X-receiver or deep threat, and only slot receiver Nico Ragaini found openings or made tough catches. LaPorta often played wide to compensate, but that limited his effectiveness. He still finished his career with 153 catches, fourth in Big Ten history at the position.

Analysis: In 2018, 61.8 percent of Iowa’s offensive snaps featured at least two tight ends. In 2022, it was 61.7 per cent. From 2019 to 2021, the Hawkeyes didn’t exceed 39 percent in any year with two tight ends, and it was just 20.9 percent in 2019. Iowa’s projected 2022 best personnel includes two plus tight ends on 60 percent of the offensive snaps. The Hawkeyes have NFL potential in Lachey and All, and the best bet is to keep them as tight ends instead of flexing them. With some time and improvement at receiver, new quarterback Cade McNamara should put tight ends in prime position to not only catch, but extend plays after receiving.

The depth of the red zone route

The gap between Iowa’s past red zone success and its recent failures is canyon-like. In 2018, Stanley threw for 301 yards and 20 touchdowns in the red zone. Iowa ranked eighth nationally in both categories. As clutch as Hockenson was on third down, Fant was his equal as a red zone target. In the 2017-18 season, Fant was in the red zone 21 times with 15 catches and 12 touchdowns. Among the 61 players with at least 20 red-zone targets over those two seasons, Fants’ 57.1 percent touchdown percentage ranked first in college football.

Brandon Smith played alongside Fant for two seasons, and few Big Ten receivers were better at contested catches on fade routes, especially in the red zone. From 2018 to 2020, Smith caught 13 red zone passes for 130 yards and eight touchdowns. Five of those scores were contested fumbles, and only one touchdown reception was thrown below the goal line.

In the red zone alone, Stanley threw for 47 touchdowns and just one interception in 2017-19. Barring one communication disaster (Penn State), Iowa had the third-most touchdowns in the red zone in 2018 (38) of any Big Ten team. Yes, Iowa really did it with Brian Ferentz as offensive coordinator.

Over the past three seasons, Iowa has totaled 16 red-zone touchdown passes and two interceptions. It scored 12 red-zone touchdowns in 2022, ranking 129th out of 131 teams. That’s less than one per game for an eight-win team.

But it’s even worse upon closer inspection. From inside the 10-yard line, Iowa had 38 plays for 38 yards in 2022. The Hawkeyes completed 6-of-10 passes for 13 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps most incredibly, Iowa only threw three passes to the goal line or end zone when lined up inside the 10-yard line. From the 20-yard line to the 11, the Hawkeyes amassed 172 yards in 36 plays, but only threw one pass into the end zone. Ironically, that incomplete pass had a wide open receiver at the end of the goal line. That adds up to four red zone passes to the goal line or end zone in 13 games.

Analysis: Scheme is apparently to blame along with play calling. In a year where the Hawkeyes had serious injuries at receiver, their best red zone passing options were their tight ends. But the game plan either didn’t have routes past the end line or the receivers weren’t open in the end zone. Neither result is acceptable.

Throwing past the goal line forces defenses to cover every bit of rubber from sideline to sideline. One missed Tackle usually turns into a touchdown. It’s a turnover-avoidance strategy, but it often leads to field goals. It negates the size advantages of existing tight ends or doesn’t allow athletes to play the ball. Sometimes football coaches have to think like their basketball counterparts. Trust your players to play.

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Quick and easy

Nothing in Iowas passing game has come easy, but perhaps most troubling is the lack of simple 2.5 second fillies. Per TruMedia, Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras completed 60.7 percent of his passes in under 2.5 seconds for 6.0 yards per attempt and an efficiency rating of 118.5 (102nd nationally) last fall. He also endured 16 sacks.

Almost all of the issues with Iowas offense come down to those numbers. First, quarterbacks are not accurate. Second, there was little chemistry with the receivers. Third, receivers struggled to get away on the first three steps. Fourth, the receivers did nothing with the ball after catching it. Five, the line did not provide adequate protection. Six, the quarterback couldn’t avoid the rush. Seven, the system didn’t change enough to improve any of those numbers.

McNamara was better in all of those areas in 2021 when he started at Michigan. He completed 70.5 percent with 7.8 yards per attempt for a 147.0 efficiency rating. Petras threw four touchdowns and one interception in 2022, while McNamara threw 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Analysis: Iowa needs quick winners on the perimeter. If a receiver can’t beat press coverage routinely, the playcaller must compensate with snap motion or keeping them off the line of scrimmage. Either way, the use of quick complements allows everything to flourish in Iowas style of play. Otherwise it will spill.

(Top photo of Luke Lachey: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)