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Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
Finally it happened. After months of speculation about a contract impasse and weeks of trade negotiations, the Canucks traded captain Bo Horvat to the Islanders for winger Anthony Beauvillier, prospect Aatu Raty and a protected first-round pick. The impact of this trade on fantasy hockey could be huge.
The Canucks got the pieces they asked for, and the Isles have taken the most valuable trade piece off the board. The price seems high – the Isles are no playoff certainty, and their already low prospect pool lost arguably their best chance. The trade makes a lot more sense if the Isles are going to re-sign Horvat, which will surely cost them a large chunk of their cap space. GM Lou Lamoriello may be old-fashioned, but he’s not averse to handing out big checks — he signed Ilya Kovalchuk to 15 years, Patrick Marleau to three years at 37, and heck, even Nikita Zaitsev (!) to seven years. years.
Here is your trade breakdown for my colleagues. (Update: Vancouver Canucks GM Patrik Allvin said Aatu Raty will initially head to AHL Abbotsford. Updated story and impact on his fantasy value.)
It’s Horvat
The general rule of thumb in any blockbuster trade — and this is true given the league-wide interest in Horvat — is that the team that gets the best player usually wins the trade.
Horvat will immediately bolster an Isles roster that has struggled to win games, improve a power play that ranks 31st in the league and give coach Lane Lambert a lot of flexibility in his lineup.
It’s unlikely that Horvat’s usage will change that much, but there will be a transition period as he leaves the only organization he’s known. What has made Horvat so good this season — second in starts (625) and eighth in goals (31) — should show up well as long as he plays a lot of minutes and plays a buffer position on the power play.
We can expect a slight hit to Horvat’s scoring because the Isles don’t have the same type of playmakers feeding him on the power play, but Wrist shot by Horvat has improved dramatically this season. He’s dangerous going downhill on either side, having previously relied on toe-pulling to get to the net, and his ability to score from mid-range and from a variety of angles will help avoid a dramatic scoring drop-off. Horvat’s spike in shooting percentage this season isn’t entirely dependent on the team he’s playing for, and as we saw in January, when he scored five goals in 13 games, his level started to decline even before the trade.
The Isles would be wise to use Horvat the way the Canucks have used him all season, and if Horvat ends up lining up with Mathew Barzal (more on that later), look for his offensive zone to skyrocket.
According to naturalstattrick.com, Barzal starts in the offensive zone 84.62 percent of the time, while Horvat is just 49.52 percent in the 5-5. That should be a boon for Horvat as it frees up some of his defensive responsibilities, and in recent years he’s actually been tricked into being a two-way player.
Ripple effect
The bigger impact of the Horvat trade is how his usage affects the rest of the Isles’ lineup. The Isles and Canucks won’t play games until after the All-Star break. We’ll see how the new lines shake out, but the best move might be to move Casey Cizikas back to center and move Barzal to the wing. Barzal has never been good at the point, and handing over center ice to Horvat might give Barzal more freedom to create offensively because he doesn’t have to worry about covering down low.
Cizikas currently plays on a line with Barzal primarily to receive tackles, but their skill sets don’t match. Simply putting Horvat in Anthony Beauvillier’s spot and getting Horvat and Cizika seems like an unnecessary move, and Cizikas is probably better off in a top six role.
Could you imagine Barzal, a righty with elite playmaking skills, paired with Horvat, a lefty with good finishing ability? It’s a goaltending nightmare and gives the Isles a new line that can score and allows them to keep Brock Nelson and Anders Lee together at all times.
If Horvat ends up with Barzal, it will give Barzal a huge fantasy boost. Defensive matchups are a bigger problem for the opposition, as the Isles have two goal lines, opening up more opportunities for Nelson and Lee.
A power play with those four forwards along with Noah Dobson — who is expected to return after the All-Star Game — should quickly turn their power into one of the league’s best units if they can create chemistry.
Isles alternates with Pageau and Kyle Palmier as the fifth player in their top unit, who have combined for 16 goals to Horvat’s 31 goals. The Isles rank 16th in shot attempts per 60 minutes on the power play, while the Canucks are fifth. Horvat will certainly help to heal the islands.
Canucks void
Whether Rick Tocchet was pitching Horvat for a potential trade or genuinely pushing him to play him 25+ shifts and 20-plus minutes a night, Horvat’s departure leaves a huge void. On the flip side, the Canucks’ lineup paints a pretty clear picture: Elias Pettersson is their undisputed No. 1 center going forward, with JT Miller playing center full-time.
This doesn’t change much even with strength. The Canucks’ biggest flaw is their defensive corps, so they will continue to fall. Losing their top player will make it harder, not easier.
On the power play, Horvat’s absence will be felt the most, as he has truly been one of the league’s best on the man advantage.
Everyone’s production will take a hit, especially Miller, who scored 22 of his 44 points on the power play. Pettersson is in a more interesting spot because it might allow him to take more shots, and he just scored his first power play goal of the season on Friday against the Jackets. It also opens up a spot for Brock Boeser to rejoin the top unit that Andrei Kuzmenko had bumped into earlier in the season. Boeser might be the only one who benefits.
Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
About Raty and Beauvillier:
Raty featured in this week’s Week 17 fantasy platform, and a move to the Canucks opens up opportunities he might not have had on Long Island.
First, the Isles had plenty of depth up the middle. Competing for a playoff spot means emphasizing experience over development.
The Canucks are the opposite. They’re changing direction on the fly (again), and they got a prospect who can step in now. In 12 games with the Isles, Raty looked like he had made strides and even had a few exchanges with Barzal in the last game. Originally considered a first-round talent, Raty fell 52nd overall in the 2021 NHL draft due to his skating, hockey IQ and effort level. He played as a minor in the World Juniors in 2020, but was cut in 2021 and scored 10 points in seven games in 2022.
After the trade, Canucks GM Patrick Allvin announced that Raty would be assigned to AHL Abbotsford, although it may be temporary due to the upcoming all-star break, and the Canucks don’t play until Monday. If Raty is recalled after the weekend, the Canucks will be eager to see what kind of impact Raty can make right away as their goal is to be as competitive as possible and avoid a full-on rebuild.
The Canucks lack depth at center and have had to play minor league Sheldon Dries on their second power play unit, so they could definitely use an extra body. Raty is ideally suited to play in the bottom six minutes as he acclimates to the NHL game and centers the second power play unit to showcase his offensive wares. Raty went from an ultimate fantasy resource to one with a sneaky turn in the deeper leagues as long as he can stay in the Canucks’ lineup.
As for Beauvillier, he’s at a point in his career where what you see is what you get. He is a quick winger who can play on both sides but struggles to finish. Still, with Ilya Mikheyev ruled out for the season with ACL surgery, look for Beauvillier to make the top six.
Conor Garland will likely move up the depth chart, while Beauvillier will likely replace Lane Pederson on Pettersson’s line. Hopefully playing with Pettersson or even Miller can unlock Beauvillier’s offensive potential, but don’t get too excited after working with a top-tier playmaker in Barzal for years and only scoring 18 goals each season.
TL;DR, give me the spark notes for the fantasy:
Bo Horvat: Oh wait, some concerns about behavior are negated by the development of his individual skills
Installments: On the rise, perhaps a regular role and PP2 opportunities if he stays with the NHL Canucks
Anthony Beauvillier: Hold, has yet to prove he can be a goalscoring winger
Mathew Barzal: On the rise, Horvat’s potential linemate
Brock Nelson/Anders Lee: Step up a bit and Horvat/Barzal might take away the tougher D matchups
Jean-Gabriel Pageau: Trending downwards, and Horvat has a lot of work to do on the save
Brock Boeser: On the rise, possibly rejoining PP1
Elias Pettersson: Hold on, possibly more shooting opportunities with Horvat out
JT Miller: Trending down because he depends on power play production
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Sources 2/ https://thehockeynews.com/news/bo-horvat-trade-has-huge-effect-in-fantasy-hockey The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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