Try to catch these guys before they take off in the second half

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Action was light after the NHL resumed play after the All-Star Game, which is unofficially the midpoint of the season, though most teams have played 50 of the 82 games. The break gives players a chance to reset, and in some cases, a few of them end up playing much better in the second half. Example: Kevin Fiala scored 32 points in 40 games in October-January last season, but 53 points in 42 games from February onwards.

Here are this week’s trade goals with a little help from analytics. All cool stats: naturalstattrick.com.

Change the For

Brady Tkachuk, LW, OTT (99% rostered)

It’s hard to replace Tkachuk, especially in banger leagues where he’s a unicorn, but note that among forwards who have played at least 250 minutes in a 5-on-5 game, Tkachuk ranks 15th in expected goals against. While he’s scoring at a point-per-game rate and also the highest of his young career, it suggests there’s potential for even better production, especially in assists.

The key to unlocking the Sens’ talented offense, which ranks 23rd with a modest 3.00 goals per game, is to take advantage of their scoring opportunities more often. According to hockey-reference.com, the Sens have the third-lowest shooting percentage in the league at 8.9 percent entering Tuesday’s games. According to Hockeyviz.com, it’s really held their offense back from reaching their full potential, as they’re allowing four percent more expected goals per 60 minutes than the league average.

This criticism can be applied to the Sens as a whole, as almost all of their top players fell short of expected goals, but the good news is that those numbers tend to revert to the mean. If Drake Batherson and Alex DeBrincat can improve their numbers, even though they don’t often play at equal strength with Tkachuk right now, they play together on a power play that increases everyone’s team’s scoring.

Story continues

Tkachuk seems like the most logical signing since he is Ottawa’s top scorer and will benefit the most. We’re already starting to see signs of a potential turnaround as Batherson and DeBrincat entered the All-Star break with points in back-to-back games, while Tkachuk had two assists against the Habs.

Vincent Trocheck, C, NYR (69% listed)

Overall, Trocheck has been good for the Rangers, but his production from month to month has really fluctuated. He flew out of the gates with nine points in 10 games in October, struggled in November with six points in 14 games, then had 13 points in 13 games in December before dropping to six points in 12 games in January. According to this formula, February should be a really productive month.

Trocheck has increased his shooting to nearly three per game this season, but has been held back by a lower shooting percentage (9.5 percent). The Rangers offense as a whole just isn’t as dynamic as it was last season, especially with a linemate Chris Kreidern regression, but there is certainly room to revert back to the mean. There’s always a chance the Rangers will go big game hunting at the deadline and maybe get one Timo Meier or Patrick Kane bump into Barclay Goodrow From Trocheck’s line playing higher in the lineup than he should.

Andrei Kuzmenko, LW, VAN (51% on roster)

A big plus for Kuzmenko is his ice time. After the trade Bo Horvat for the Islanders and raises Elias Pettersson into the No. 1 role, Kuzmenko played 18:04 against the Devils, his seventh-best ice time of the season. Kuzmenko’s Ice Time has risen steadily during the year and has varied from an average of 15:19 in October to 16:17 in January. Recently re-signed to a multi-year extension, the Canucks have recognized Kuzmenko as part of the core going forward, and his spot alongside Pettersson on both the even and power play is all but guaranteed.

Kuzmenko was benched once earlier in the season due to poor play, but with a team out of shape and expected to trade at the deadline, it’s unlikely they can afford to keep Kuzmenko out of the lineup. Also, in Horvat’s absence, the Canucks have shown they can still be a dangerous offensive team. Kuzmenko is an under-the-radar option for fantasy leaders looking for offensive upside.

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Travis Konecny, RW, PHI (83% listed)

That’s a bit of a shame because Konecny ​​has been outstanding for the Flyers this season and one of the best late-round/waiver-wire picks of the season. He’s a multi-class contributor, but finds himself going through his longest slump of the season, going five games without a point. John Tortorella wrote a rare public letter telling their fan base that the Flyers are still a work in progress.

Translated, that means the Flyers will sell at the deadline, and among their trade bait is Konecny’s linemate, James van Riemsdyk.

Of course, the Flyers could always move Konecny ​​back to the line Noah Cates and Joel Farabi, but the bigger picture is that the Flyers are looking to move some veterans out the door. Also among the possible departures is All-Star Kevin Hayesand if the Flyers knock off much of their top six, it will make it even more difficult for Konecny ​​to score because of inferior linemates and tighter defensive matchups.