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PROVO, Utah – Starting in 2023, the college football season will be historic for BYU. That’s because the Cougars will become a Power Five program for the first time in their history as a member of the Big 12 Conference.
A familiar knock for teams outside of the Power Five structure is whether they can survive the weekly grind of a Power Five schedule. BYU has played a lot of P5s in their 12 years as an FBS Independent, but they’re staring at 10 P5 opponents in 2023.
🪩 2023 SP+ PROJECTS 🕺
* You will NEVER BELIEVE who is number one!
* Bama starts fourth??? #The sky is falling
* The Pac-12 rivalry could be great
* State of Kent 😬
* Welcome to the party, @JSUGamecocks_FB and @BearkatsFBTHE BROKERAGE OF THE YEAR IS OVER, EVERYONEhttps://t.co/e5MWjgkWcF
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) February 14, 2023
How is Kalani Sitake’s team doing?
One power ranking projects BYU to finish as a top 12 seed at the end of the season.
The ESPNs Bill Connelly released his first installment of the 2023 SP+ ratings. Connelly created SP+, a measure of college football’s tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency.
The 2023 SP+ rankings have BYU ranked No. 62 in 2023. That would be good for 14th in the 14-team Big 12.
Does this mean BYU is having a bad season? No. If anything, it highlights the depth of BYU’s new league home, which has one more year with Texas and Oklahoma in the conference. But it also shows that expectations for BYU football may be needed in 2023.
Where the Big 12 teams rank in the 2023 College Football SP+ rankings
- 9. Texas
- 14. Oklahoma
- 19. TCU
- 22. Kansas State
- 34. Oklahoma State
- 35. Texas Tech
- 38. Baylor
- 39. UCF
- 43. Cincinnati
- 45. Iowa State
- 50. West Virginia
- 51. Houston
- 57. Kansas
- 62. BYU
The two big reasons why BYU is so low in the initial SP+ rankings are the return of production and recent recruiting. BYU’s recruiting rankings since 2020 have been ranked 82nd (2020), 70th (2021), 57th (2022) and 52nd (2023) in the 247Sports Composite team rankings.
Then with the returning production, losing Jaren Hall, Puka Nacua, Blake Freeland and Clark Barrington are significant losses.
2023 @BYUfootball Schedule
Year 1 year @Big12Conference #GoCougs pic.twitter.com/QObb8pgCDR
— KSL Sports (@kslsports) 31 January 2023
The good news for BYU is that it opens Big 12 play against a Kansas team that is just five spots ahead in the SP+ rating. Then a week later, BYU’s first Big 12 home game is against Cincinnati, led by first-year head coach Scott Satterfield. The Bearcats are ranked No. 43 in Connelly’s original rankings. So both games are probably slippers to start the season.
BYU’s non-conference schedule opens the season on Sept. 2 against Sam Houston of Conference USA. Sam Houston moves from FCS to FBS. Bearkats at #124.
Next week, Southern Utah comes to Provo. The T-Birds are not in Connelly’s classification because they are a member of the Football Championship Series (FCS). Then in week three, BYU goes down to SEC country to try and get some revenge on Arkansas. The Razorbacks are ranked No. 29 by Connelly.
With 29 years and nine conference games to go at Arkansas, BYU has a lower mark than 10 of its 12 opponents in 2023.
BYU football opens spring practice on March 6 and the spring game on March 31 at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Mitch Harper is KSLsports.com’s BYU Insider and host of the Cougar Tracks podcast (ROOM) and Cougar Sports Saturday (Saturday noon-3 p.m.) on KSL Newsradio. Follow Mitch’s coverage of BYU’s move to the Big 12 Conference on Twitter: @Mitch_Harper.
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