Big Ten football schedule format: What’s the latest after conference meetings?

Big Ten administrators, school officials and conference football coaches left their meeting at conference headquarters last week without finalizing a new scheduling model for 2024 and beyond. But it was far from a futile journey.

College Football Playoff eligibility was established as a core idea, and all future alignments must serve that greater good. Two other common sense principles were also confirmed. First, that the schedule should be fair and equitable. Two, that every four-year player should compete at least once on every Big Ten campus. For example, Illinois no longer has to wait nine years before competing three hours southeast in Indiana.

With YKP and a balanced schedule set as priorities, that leaves only figuring out annual opponents and schedule conditions as the biggest obstacle to making an announcement. But the competitive landscape is delicate and uncertain, especially in a conference with nine schools that have been in business for more than 100 years and seven others whose service stretches back 70 years (Michigan State) to next August (USC, UCLA).

We’ve talked about it in a couple of different ways, said Iowa athletics director Gary Barta, the 2020-21 CFP chairman. Flex protection (varies by school), and then we’ve looked at one, we’ve looked at two, but nothing was definitive yet.

I don’t know where it ends well. But it follows these principles. Which is fairest? What gives us the most teams in the new playoffs? And we don’t want to go, I don’t want to go, and I don’t think the Big Ten is interested in going seven years before you play somebody. That is, for better circulation.

All of these plans lead to the elimination of the division, which Barta admitted because it seemed like it could be where we end up. While it seems like an easy decision, the East-West structure has served the Big Ten well. Although divisional play produced disproportionate championship results, it ensured the correct result with the most qualified East Division entrant receiving the highest possible position. But the growing imbalance between the divisions, combined with the arrival of USC and UCLA and the expansion of the CFP from four to 12 teams in 2024, makes eliminating divisions not only inevitable, but absolutely the right thing to do.

USC and UCLA will join the Big Ten in 2024. (Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

In the first four games between East and West, the difference varied from three to four points. Off Ohio State’s shocking 59-0 win against Wisconsin in 2014, the next three games were competitive and decided in the final moments. In 2015 and 2017, West Division champions Iowa and Wisconsin were undefeated and had a chance to win the title. Michigan State beat Iowa 16-13 on a 22-play drive that culminated in a touchdown with 27 seconds left. Wisconsin got the ball in Ohio State territory with three minutes left, but an interception shut the Badgers down in a 27-21 loss. But those teams spelled the end of the West, seriously challenging the East in Indianapolis.

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In the last five years, the Eastern champion was a double-digit favorite, and all five times the final points justify a lopsided betting line. The West had moments when Wisconsin and Northwestern led Ohio State at halftime in 2019 and 2020, but each time the East champion was too much for the West. Arguably the second-best team in the conferences, they competed in the East in 2016, 2018, 2021 and 2022.

This trend is likely to continue indefinitely. In nine years, the East leads the West 90-78 in crossover games. Last fall showed the biggest difference between the divisions, with the East winning 13 of 21 games. Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State each went 3-0 against the West. Only Iowa (15-9) and Wisconsin (14-10) have winning records against Eastern Division teams in an East-West season, and Iowa is the only West team to beat every East team in the last nine seasons.

In the four-team CFP era, divisional alignment was sufficient, with only one Big Ten team usually making the tournament. The 2022 season was the exception, with Michigan and Ohio State earning a berth, and without a championship rematch, it might have secured both of their spots. But with the expanded CFP, the conferences playing the top two teams are less likely to force the loser out and confirm a first-round bye for the champion. A lopsided matchup that produces a major upset can have a ripple effect that limits playoff participants. In terms of competition, there is even reason to cut off the championship match completely.

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You can debate whether the championship match is better or worse, but we haven’t had a serious discussion about eliminating it, Barta said. First of all, we just got it up and running. It’s sold out. There are financial consequences if we choose to do so. But we haven’t had strong, serious discussions about it.

Although holding disagreements has generated discussion, there is little desire for it. A geographic alignment with USC and UCLA joining the West division and pushing Purdue to the East might limit the competitive disparity, especially if USC re-emerges as a national power, but it would limit regular season games featuring USC against Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. . Big Ten media partners Fox, CBS and NBC want as many high-profile matchups as possible, which includes more frequent games with the Big Ten’s biggest brands currently residing in the East Division.

Of the 36 Big Ten games with 3.5 million viewers over the last two years, only four did not feature Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State. The conference cannot ignore it. But four of the 10 non-conference regular season games that drew 3.5 million viewers also involved West Division teams. So it’s not that one-sided that current West Division schools don’t add value. But USC, which regularly competes against the big three in the East Division, produces titanic grades. It cannot be guaranteed against West Division foes.

Other topics include things like November’s Saturday primetime challenges, the order of selection between Fox, CBS and NBC, and Friday game titles. They will be resolved soon, perhaps in early March, when the leadership meets again in the Big Ten men’s basketball tournament. Or the 2024 decision could extend to mid-spring or later.

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On the other hand, there really is no deadline, Barta said. We don’t have to do it immediately by a certain date because it’s two years away. It is on the side that says there is no major pressure point. On the other hand, purely from a design standpoint, I’d like to see it done sooner rather than later. There isn’t a moment where if we don’t decide by today we’ll be in trouble. So there is no such pressure.

If it goes in the best possible way, announce everything at once. I think that makes more sense. I’m not going to predict it, but I think the desire is to get it all out at once so everyone can plan ahead.

(Top photo: Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)