Series preview: The Cavs-Knicks series offers a referendum on the moves of the summer

All eyes will be on Donovan Mitchell – and New York’s Jalen Brunson – in the first-round series.

The Knicks and Cavaliers head into the NBA spring with confidence, and all anyone wants to talk about is last summer.

At least that’s what it sounds like, because so much of the conversation centers on Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland’s scoring star and the guy New York avoided. Even Mitchell, a native of New York, seemed surprised the Knicks refused to negotiate with Utah because it didn’t want to part with young pieces and draft picks. The Knicks signed free agent guard Jalen Brunson, groomed by the likes of Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes and others, took spark plug Josh Hart in February and turned everything into a fifth seed in the East. They are making their second postseason appearance in the last 10 years, which makes the results difficult.

However, Cleveland showed no such hesitation. It put together a hefty package for the Jazz, who were looking to bring in just the kind of star they needed. Mitchell responded with the best of his five NBA seasons, averaging a career-high 28.3 points and making every other Cavalier a little better with his presence.

Now the result of this series acts as a kind of referendum for many. If the Knicks win, they will have made a more cautious move. If the Cavaliers advance, they went big and avoid going home.

Regular season results

October 30: Cavaliers 121, Knicks 108
December 4: Knicks 92, Cavaliers 81
January 24: Knicks 105, Cavaliers 103
March 31st: Knicks 130, Cavaliers 116

3 things to watch

1. Mitchell vs. Brunson. As noted above, these are two additions that put their teams in the playoffs. Each led their team in scoring in four regular season games, Mitchell scored 31.8 points against New York (38 in the first meeting), while Brunson burned Cleveland for 25.3 points (48 in the most recent clash). The Knicks guard doesn’t control the ball as much as Mitchell, but be who they look like late in the clock. For comparison, when Dallas beat Utah in six games last spring in the West, Brunson averaged 27.8 points and shot 48.4 percent to Mitchells 25.5 on 39.8 percent shooting.

2. Cavs D vs. Knicks O. Which will flash first? In their four games against New York this season, the Cavaliers, who had the best defense this season at 109.9 points per 100 possessions, dropped to 112.7. The Knicks had an offensive rating of 117.0 compared to Cleveland’s 112.7. The slow pace at which Cavs coach JB Bickerstaff likes to play may factor into this, but New York can handle being coached by Tom Thibodeau after he honed his gears in a half-court slog.

3. Where is Danny? When the Cavaliers acquired veteran guard Danny Green in February, the thinking was that his extensive postseason resume would be as valuable as his fly paper defense and 3-point range at this point on the calendar. Anything could still happen, but Green has only played 71 minutes in seven games for Cleveland (14 DNPs), and this is the time of year when rotations get tighter. It might not make or break the Cavaliers’ prospects, but his involvement is worth watching.

The X-Factor

Julius Randle will be the center of attention — if he can play at full strength after an ankle injury.

Until Julius Randle removes the ? a sprained left ankle earns him an X here. Randle was injured two weeks ago against Miami, has been walking in a walker and is scheduled to be re-evaluated in the next few days. If he can’t compete or is even limited, he could face a repeat of last spring when he averaged 18 points on 18.8 shots per game and shot 29.8% in a five-game sweep in Atlanta. In half, Knicks fans will look to the two-time All-Star and possible All-NBA selection to test Clevelands Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen inside and out.

The number in the record

+5.6 —The Cavs were tied for the league’s fifth-best record, but had the second-best scoring differential both per 100 possessions (+5.6) and per game (+5.4). They ranked higher than the Milwaukee Bucks (the best record in the league) in both offensive and defensive efficiency and were one of three teams to finish in the top 10 on both ends of the floor. Statistically, they were a much better team than their record would indicate.

The Cavs were 24-21 (10th-best) in games within five points in the final five minutes and 27-10 (second-best) otherwise, leading the league with 33 double-digit wins. That was the biggest margin in the league, and it was the second straight season Cleveland wasn’t as good in close games as it was otherwise. The Cavs’ defense was solid in clutch situations, but they ranked 20th in the league. Darius Garland (21-62, 33.9%) was one of seven players to shoot worse than 35% on at least 50 clutch field goal attempts. .

Julius Randle was one of the other six and the Knicks were also worse in clutch games (23-22) than otherwise (24-13). Three of the four regular season meetings were within five points in the final five minutes, and the Knicks won two of those three.

– John Schuhman

Selection

No Randle, no shot at New York. If he returns and is close to 100%, this will be a long streak. Both coaches preach defense, both have solid rim protection, and both have dynamic point guards to drive their offenses. If Mitchell Robinson and Allen cancel each other out in the paint, the versatile Mobley could prove to be the difference, troubling the Knicks at different spots on both ends. The Cavaliers likely have a little more pressure, but they have Home Court to start and finish. It should get done. Cavaliers in 7th.

* * *

Steve Aschburner has been writing about the NBA since 1980. You can email him here , search his archives here , andfollow him on Twitter.

The views of this page do not necessarily reflect those of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Insights from Discovery Sports.