How important are recruiting rankings?

With the latest additions of Florida high school teammates 4-star Jon Mitchell and 3-star Antoine Belgrave-Shorter, both cornerbacks, Penn State football has moved up to No. 8 in the 2024 recruiting class.

3-stars, 4-stars, the rare 5-star (for Penn State, anyway), a top-10 recruiting class, what does it all mean and how do these rankings translate to success on the field?

There is a saying that goes “It’s not always about X’s and O’s, it’s about Jimmy and Joe”. All recruitment data and information is collected from recruitment site 247.

Recruitment success equals championships

A familiar phrase among college football fans is that “stars and recruiting rankings don’t matter.” They point to a surefire recruit that failed to develop into the next Heisman Trophy winner (Penn State football player Christian Hackenberg comes to mind) and use one waste as an excuse to devalue the entire system.

As Covid-19 completely changed the college football landscape, we look at the college football national champions since the start of the College Football Playoff system (2014) and compare them to both their 3-year and 10-year recruiting averages. classes before they held up the championship trophy for all to see.

2019 – LSU Tigers. Their three-year average before beating Clemson was 8. Their 10-year average was 6.8.

2018 – Clemson Tigers. The three-year average when they beat Alabama was 11.3. The 10-year average was 16.7.

2017 – Alabama Crimson Tide. When Bama beat Georgia in overtime, their three-year average was No. 1. They ranked first in seven out of ten years with an average of 1.8.

2016 – Clemson Tigers. When they beat Bama for their first national championship in 35 years, their three-year recruiting average was 12 and their 10-year average was 16.9.

2015 – Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama beat Clemson for No. 1 again with a three-year average, and the 10-year average dropped to 5.6.

2014-Ohio State Buckeyes. When OSU beat Oregon in its first-ever CFP Championship game, they did so with a three-year recruiting average of 3.3 and a 10-year differential of 8.2.

In this six-year span, it’s crystal clear that while star recruits sometimes fall short, these recruiting analysts get it right more than wrong.

Recent Penn State football recruiting

Penn State’s recent recruiting success has been quite impressive. While much of the Nittany Lion faithful is not a fan of James Franklin’s coaching abilities, no one can deny his ability to recruit.

In Franklin’s 10 seasons in a full recruiting cycle (including 2023), Penn State football averaged 14.6, with two top-10 recruiting classes at No. 6 in 2018 and 2022. His lowest was No. 21 in 2021.

As previously noted, the PSU class of 2024 is currently ranked No. 8 in the country and could rise higher if 4-star QB Michael Van Buren follows 247’s “Crystal Ball” projections and signs with the Nittany Lions. Of course, that number could also decrease if one of these top recruits unloads and signs elsewhere.

These numbers show without a doubt that success on the field is preceded by success in recruiting. Penn State football’s championship foundation was built over the past decade. Now they just have to finish the house.