Two games in Saturday’s Round of 64 Madrid Open

The ATP Masters Madrid Open is well underway in Spain. Although missing a few faces like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Jannik Sinner, the tournament has been exciting so far. Here are two matches to be played in Saturday’s round of 64.

Bet: Christian Garin vs. Miomir Kecmanovic OV 22.5 games

Garin is the best player in this match. While I know Kecmanovic can play at a high level, he tends to fade and get discouraged when he feels outmatched.

Reasons OVER: This is the first meeting between the two. The better clay court player here is definitely Garin, but Kecmanovic impressed with his recent performance at his last tournament, the SRPSKA Open in Banja Luka. He also surprised me in the first round of his defeat against the Italian Lorenzo Musetti in Monte Carlo, taking him to a tiebreak. The Serbian is capable of good aggressive tennis and the faster conditions on the clay courts in Madrid can complement that. Kecmanovic has good rhythm and pace coming into Madrid, which should help him contend with Garin.

Bet: Dusan Lajovic +2.5 games vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime

I love this betting. Lajovic is surely having the best year of his life on tour. In Miami, he lost to 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz in the first set 6-0, but then stormed back against the world’s second-best player, losing 6-7 (5-7) in the semifinals. Since then, the Serbian has won the SRPSKA Open, defeating world number one Novak Djokovic and world number six Andrey Rublev in the final.

Lajovics game is full of touch, consistency, variety and above all patience. I’m usually worried about the durability he’s been on lately, but he comes into this matchup against Auger Aliassime with a quick win in the first round when FAA last played in Miami a month ago.

The only problem for Lajovic might be Felixs serving power, complemented by Madrid’s greater height. The good news for Lajovic is that he can neutralize the power with his backhand slice and work himself into points.

It’s a great moment to support Lajovic in the moment he’s in right now against a player who’s still trying to get back into the swing of things after returning from a knee injury. Taking Lajovic’s ML at +130 is tempting, but a more conservative option is +2.5 games.