Matt Boldy’s deal already looks like a steal – Minnesota Wild

It is said that the draft class can only be judged after 1000 years. Then, long after NHL arenas have turned to dust, archaeologists can unearth the carefully preserved bodies of amateur scouts buried in their draft lists and use a millennium of hindsight to decide which one was right.

Four years can also be ok.

Decision time is coming for many players in the 2019 Draft class, if it hasn’t arrived already. While we’ve only seen 60 members make their debuts over the past four years, and we know more are on the way, the top players are already in the NHL and approaching their second contract.

The second contract is a big deal for both players and NHL clubs. For players, this is their first chance to cash out of an entry-level contract that artificially underpays them hugely. Clubs see it as their last, best chance to get a good deal on their future players, a good opportunity to buy some free agent years, or both.

More will certainly join the ranks this summer, but the 2019 Draft currently only has four members signed to long-term second contracts (five to eight seasons that buy out UFA seasons). They are Jack Hughes, Dylan Cozens, Matt Boldy and Cole Caufield, who signed his seven-year deal this week.

Here’s a breakdown of what those offers look like:

It’s curious how Boldy’s contract has both the lightest overall cap and overall value. There are reasons for this, of course. Boldy’s deal only buys two UFA years, while Hughes, Cozens and Caufield bought more. It is a reasonable added value at the end of the contract.

But when it comes to getting the team money for the bulk of the great players, Boldy’s $7 million cap hit is going to look like a steal as we see more of these deals being made.

Hughes will obviously be the gold standard in this draft class, and so will his contract. There’s a reason he went No. 1 in the draft. In the first year of Hughes’ contract, he had 43 goals and 99 points in 78 games, an MVP-worthy performance from the 21-year-old center.

Nobody is going to beat Hughes as the best in his class anytime soon. Still, four years after the 2019 Draft, Boldy is already the second-best player in his class, at least by some measures.

We might not even be very far away from dropping that qualifier. Only Hughes (87), Caufield (53), Trevor Zegras (49) and Cozens (48) have more goals than Boldy’s 46 hits. Hughes (207), Zegras (139) and Cozens (119) are the only ones with more points.

Those numbers are also just raw numbers without considering the difference in games between Boldy and the top names in this draft class. On a per-game basis, Boldy ranked among the top five scorers in 2019 over the past two years, with most of them making their debuts:

Even this season, a “down” year for Boldy, where he struggled mightily through much of the game, his 31 goals were still tied with Cozens for second in the class, and his 63 points tied for fourth. And this is just based on points that don’t tell the whole story.

Looking at stats that give a more holistic view of their value, we turn to Evolving Hockey’s Standings Points Above Replacement model. According to it, the top of its class has a career at SPAR:

1. Hughes, 13.8
2. It was 8.2
3. Kirby Roof, 4.7
4. Moritz Seider, 4.6
5. Philip Tomasino, 4.3
6. Cozens, 4.1
7. Alex Newhook, 3.5
T-8. Caufield, 3.4
T-8. Zegras, 3.4
10. Rafael Harvey-Pinard, 2.8

Not only is Boldy the second most valuable player in the 2019 class, it’s not even particularly close. This year’s Boldy has also been more valuable than almost anyone else in his prime. The top five individual SPAR seasons at any time by anyone in the 2019 class break down as follows:

1. 2022-23 Hughes: 6.8
2. 2021-22 Hughes: 4.9
3. 2021-22 Was: 4.7
4. 2021-22 Dates: 4.2
5. 2022-23 Was: 3.5

That’s right, even Boldy’s worst season to date has not only been better than almost anyone else’s best, but would match or surpass the careers of all but five players in this draft class so far. Boldy’s career value doubles that of Cozens and does more than circle the likes of Caufield, Zegras and whoever else.

All for the low, low price of $7 million per season during his prime. These long-term second deals aren’t getting any cheaper, so expect Boldy’s deal to remain a great deal for the next seven years. Even if it only buys two years of UFA status, keeping that number locked up at $7 million instead of signing a bridge deal, then hitting a home run in the third chapter of his contract to save the Wild an incredible amount of money.

Instead, Wild hit back-to-back Jacks when it came to Boldy. The first was to get the second best player in his class always in 12th place overall. This deal is another steep shot, and both should look better as time goes on.