Could China grow to be a Russia-like problem? – EURACTIV.com

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Welcome to EURACTIVs Global Europe Brief, your weekly update on the EU from a global perspective.

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In this weeks edition: China dependencies, post-EUCO energy and Schengen woes.

Once you make a mistake, you try to avoid repeating it again. But you cant avoid what you dont identify – or identify too late.

Before this week’s China discussions, the EUs diplomatic service prepared a so-called non-paper and sent it to member states, which we also got our hands on. The document makes it clear China has become an even stronger global competitor for the EU, the US and other like-minded partners.

It draws a rather grim picture of the EU-China relationship since 2019, when the bloc verbalised its strategy towards Beijing, followed by trade disputes and sanctions.

Most notably, it advises the EU to intensify its efforts to reduce vulnerabilities in technology, maritime and space security, innovation, and by fighting disinformation.

The report also said the bloc must prevent and isolate Chinas attempts to apply its divide et impera tactics [] and refrain from isolated or uncoordinated initiatives that would weaken our stance. “

At their regular meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, the EUs foreign ministers confirmed their support for the China memo.

Although not directly verbalised in the report, several ministers drew a clear parallel between the current dependencies created with Beijing to the mistake made with Russia more than a decade ago.

Will Russias war in Ukraine, and the changed geopolitical context, be a wake-up call to look a bit closer at where dependencies lie?

If not, it could be a grim picture.

Over the week EU officials and diplomats noted that in his opening speech last Sunday, China’s President Xi signalled the partys intent to push forward with policies around dual circulation, zero-COVID, and external assertiveness.

China is also pursuing unification with Taiwan on a much faster timeline than previously expected, with President Xi Jinping refusing to rule out the use of force to unify with the self-governing island.

We are talking about a Taiwan under Chinese control [] 98% of microchips will be gone if China invades Taiwan its better we start thinking about that now, a senior EU official said only a few days after.

“And if this happens – I don’t think we can stay on the sidelines,” the official added when asked about what the EU’s potential reaction could be.

“That’s why we need to minimize the impact already now,” he said, “and avoid being blackmailed in the future,” pointing towards the bloc’s recent new strategies on chips, batteries and raw materials.

No one in Brussels, of course, is currently considering sanctions against China to deter it from invading Taiwan. But should they be on the table one day, only consider how laborious dependencies have made the implementation of sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine.

However, while EU leaders were meant to address lessening dependency, the distance between how EU officials believe the bloc should handle its relations with China, and how far its member states are willing to go, was laid relatively bare.

Concerned about leaks, the leaders’ discussion was held with no phones present in the room. In comparison, the talks about the war in Ukraine have had no such security restrictions for several meetings now.

In Beijing, one keeps a close eye on European discussions.

Heard contradictory views on China from Europe: continued engagement vs. competition and rivalry, Wang Lutong, Europe director at the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs, tweeted before the summit.

Sound conclusions need to be based on reality, rational thinking and good logic. Hope our European friends will come to the right decision as to what exactly is in their best interest, he added.

This time, the three-hour-long summit discussions produced only short conclusions, a sign that future talks might prove even trickier.

Especially since some couldn’t help but spot the deja vuof some EU member states wanting to run solo on China as they did on Russia.

“Let’s face it, we’ll be having the same problem with the ‘usual suspects’ in regard to relations with Beijing as we had with Moscow,” a displeased EU diplomat told EURACTIV during the summit night before the discussion.

A senior EU official compared German Chancellor Scholz’s trip to some EU member states becoming even more dependent on Russian oil after Moscow’s invasion of Crimea.

Some countries, instead of reducing their dependence [on Russia], increased it. That is the problem, but it is their decision, the same is happening with Germany, the official said.

EU IN THE WORLD

EUCO ENERGY | After a long night of discussions, EU leaders backedplans for a temporary dynamic price corridor on natural gas transactions as well as joint gas purchasing and default solidarity rules among EU countries facing an emergency.

The next step is for EU energy ministers to further discuss the measures this Tuesday, providing guidance for the EU’s executive to follow up with concrete legislative proposals in the coming weeks. But beware, some EU diplomats and leaders were briefing we could likely look towards an emergency EU summit in November if things don’t move fast enough.

SPECIAL TRIBUNAL | EU leaders acknowledged Ukraines efforts to secure accountability, including for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, and asked the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell to explore options. This comes after the foreignministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania earlier this week issued a joint statement calling on the EU to support Ukraine in creating a special tribunal for the future trial of Russias leadership.

IRAN SANCTIONS | After an initial warning and a slate of human rights sanctions, EU member states this week agreed on fresh sanctions against three individuals and one entity for supplying Iranian drones that have been used by Russia to bomb Ukraine in recent weeks.

The expectation in Brussels is that further measures are likely, as Iran has promised to provide Russia with surface-to-surface missiles, in addition to more drones.

CRITICISM MISSING | The EUs stance on Tunisia, which has been governed by presidential decree since July 2021, is increasingly disappointing pro-democracy campaigners in the country.

DEFENSE CORNER

UK MOVES | EU ambassadors this week unanimously approved the UKs application to join the EUs project on military mobility, which aims at improving the rapidity of troops and equipment movement across Europe, should the need arise. If all goes down the institutional road as expected, the decision could be sealed in November when EU foreign and defense ministers will meet in Brussels for their regular autumn session.

BORDER MISSION | While EU foreign ministers agreed to send a short-term observation mission to work alongside the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, but questions remain over its final objectives and long-term planning.

SWEDISH OFFER | The new Moderate Swedish Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson said he is prepared to go to Ankara to discuss the ramification of his country’s NATO application, which Turkey is still set to approve.

ENLARGEMENT LATEST

FREE MOVEMENT | Western Balkan ministers this week agreed on ID-free travel between the six countries and on mutual recognition of university diplomas and professional qualifications, taking a step towards EU membership.

SCHENGEN WOES | Meanwhile, the Dutch Parliament voted against the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the Schengen border-free area. It comes two days after the European Parliament passed a resolution with an overwhelming majority, urging the Schengen member states to allow Romania and Bulgaria to join the EU free movement area without further delay.

ON OUR RADAR EU’s chief diplomat goes Latin America for CELAC-EU Ministerial | Mo-Thu, 24-27 October 2022 | Uruguay, Argentina EU Military Committee (EUMC) meets on Strategic Compass, military mobility and CSDP missions | Mo-Tue, 24-25 October 2022 | Brussels, Belgium European Parliament’s AFET Committee meets on EU-Armenia, EU-Azerbaijan relations and Afghanistan | Tuesday, 25 October 2022 | Brussels, Belgium European Parliament’s SEDE Committee meets on Defense Joint Procurement Task Force, Strategic Compass components | Wednesday, 26 October 2022 | Brussels, Belgium #SHEcurity 2022 Index | Thursday, 27 October 2022 | Brussels, Belgium PAST EDITIONS

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]

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