Experts say climate change is causing unprecedented heat; no end in sight ~ Missoula Current

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By Carson McCullough (Courthouse News) July 26, 2021

July 26, 2021 By Missoula Current

(CN) New research indicates that extreme weather events like the recent summer heat wave in the United States are being spurred by the planet’s ongoing battle against climate change.

Over the past few decades, many have become all too aware of the record heat waves that have put serious and often deadly pressure on communities around the world.

From the recent heat wave in the Pacific Northwest that inflicted record high temperatures in places like Portland and Seattle, to the current heat wave sweeping through the UK, people from all kinds of regional climates are now no strangers to the extreme heat.

In a study published Monday in Nature Climate Change, experts say the severe climate change happening around the world increases the likelihood of these massive heat waves happening. The researchers found that it’s not the amount of warming itself but the rate at which warming is occurring that really sets the stage for these extreme weather events.

The researchers used a series of complex climate data models and analytical techniques to look for correlations between climate change and rising temperatures. Using these models, the experts were able to analyze different possible outcomes for the planet that changed depending on the number of emission experts projected in each scenario.

What they found is that under the high carbon emissions scenario, the likelihood of experiencing heat waves is likely to skyrocket in the years to come. According to their models, record heat waves of more than a week will be two to seven times more likely by 2050.

And experts say it doesn’t improve from there. Between 2050 and 2080, in just under 60 years, experts predict that heat waves will be three to 21 times more likely than they have been in recent decades.

The researchers also found that heat waves appear to be linked to the ebb and flow of accelerating climate change, with heat waves more likely to occur in spurts during periods of rapid global warming, but then slowing down when global warming is less aggressive.

These findings, the researchers say, help illustrate how imperative it is that we understand the most likely future of these dangerous heat surges, especially as local leaders, many of whom may be in areas not accustomed to the extreme heat, try to prepare their communities for what is to come.

We argue that it is essential to further investigate the plausibility of such record-breaking events, as the impacts tend to be particularly large when such record-breaking events first occur in a certain location, the study says. We show that taking into account the rate of warming is vital for adaptation decisions.

Experts point out that even if climate change were properly contained, heat waves would still be an uncomfortable reality for the planet.

But while heatwaves cannot be totally avoided, the researchers say putting in place meaningful measures to bring climate change under control would help dramatically reduce the chances that these heatwaves, they say, will dominate the rest of the 21st century.

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