Iranian policymakers must take responsibility for its water crisis | Kaveh Madani

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Iran’s water bankruptcy has been in the news lately, sparking deadly protests in Khuzestan province that have also drawn global media attention. But this kind of problem is neither new nor unique in the country. Drying up rivers, disappearing lakes, shrinking wetlands, lowering groundwater levels, subsiding soil, sinkholes, desertification, soil erosion, dust storms, pollution of air, water and waste, loss of biodiversity, deforestation and forest fires are among the other familiar signs of Iran’s environmental devastation.

Khuzestan, in southwestern Iran, is world famous for its rich oil and gas resources. But this contribution of the rich provinces to Iran’s development is not only its oil and gas revenues. Khuzestan is also rich in water compared to most of the country. Thus, its large rivers have been blocked by gigantic dams to store water for agriculture, industrial and domestic uses and the production of hydroelectricity. Considerable amounts of water have also been transferred from tributaries of its rivers to the dry regions of central Iran.

As a researcher this is one of the few times I wish all my projections were wrong

The excessive manipulation of the natural environment for economic gain has pushed the Khuzestan ecosystem to a breaking point. The bankrupt province can no longer meet the needs of farmers, industries, towns and villages, and fragile wetland ecosystems which, when dried up, turn into dust sources and punish innocent Khuzestanis with dust storms crippling.

What Khuzestan and the rest of Iran are experiencing today is not unexpected. Once you have emptied your checking account (surface water) and depleted your savings account (ground water), you find yourself with many creditors (water rights holders) whose demands cannot be met. You are then in water bankruptcy and the dissatisfaction of the applicants can trigger major conflicts.

The amount of water Iran uses has exceeded its amount of renewable fresh water in most parts of the country for many years. Many experts, including myself, have warned of the national security risks of this situation for years. As a researcher, this is one of the few times I wish all my projections about my home country were wrong.

This year, a major drought occurred after two excessively wet years that filled reservoirs and brought wetlands to life. But the mismanagement of water that was gained and the lack of preparedness for the subsequent dry conditions caused drinking water and power outages, disruptions in agricultural water allocations and the disappearance of wetlands that all affected livelihoods and triggered anger.

The Khuzestan protests also carry an important element of social justice. Ethnic Arab populations express deep frustration at what they see as systematic or intentional discrimination that has resulted in the underdevelopment of their wealthy province. The Khuzestanese are also wondering why their water has to be transferred to other areas when they are suffering from thirst.

Clearly, these problems were not created overnight, but through decades of unsustainable development, rooted in poor planning, lack of foresight and ineffective environmental governance. A chronic problem of this magnitude has no quick fix. So, as in the past, the government will mainly focus on anger management, plaster solutions like compensating farmers for lost income and ensuring more regular deliveries of clean water as well as making promises, while hoping the problems will go away soon with some precipitation.

Many have wondered what role climate change plays in this situation. Climate change is real and immediate action is essential. I fought an expensive fight for this belief as a researcher in the Global North and a former decision maker in the Global South. I am not a climate change denier, but I am extremely concerned about the unintended consequences of a constant emphasis on the role of climate change in extreme events.

Climate change is making Iran hotter and drier. It also increases the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts. It could therefore have played a catalytic role, but it should certainly not be sold as one of the main causes of the problem.

We in the climate change community tend to air condition extreme events with a natural dimension such as forest fires in the United States and Canada, floods in Europe and China, or drought in Khuzestan. We do it in the service of a good cause: to draw the attention of decision-makers to an existential problem. But it can be misleading and counterproductive.

The point is, Iran would have experienced today’s problems at some point as a result of local anthropogenic changes regardless of global climate change. Weathering the extremes can be a gift for most decision makers who do not want to accept responsibility for their bad decisions. They will tell you that there is little they can do. If they are from developing economies, they will also remind you that they are the victims of a global catastrophe created by advanced industrial nations.

Even if climate change stopped and Iran reduced its carbon emissions by 100% now, its water bankruptcy and many other environmental problems would not be resolved immediately. This does not mean that we must abandon the fight against the climate. But alongside this global struggle, we must remember that local decision-makers are responsible for the preventable failures in environmental management that lead to the degradation and suffering we are currently seeing in Iran.

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