LAPD investigation could hurt campaign of recall candidate Larry Elder

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He burst onto the California political scene in a flash, a frank conservative voice with polarizing views on everything from the coronavirus pandemic to gun laws.

Now, with just over two weeks on his unlikely quest to become governor, Larry Elder is caught up in a growing saga over whether the radio show host brandished a gun at his former fiancee during the ‘an argument six years ago.

While the scandal could quickly derail the political fortunes of the leading recall candidate, political observers say the domestic violence allegation currently under investigation by the Los Angeles Police Department could instead become a rallying cry among staunch Elder supporters, some of the same voters who looked past former President Donald Trump boasts of fiddling with women.

“Whoever went to vote for Elder will vote for Elder,” said longtime political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, “and whoever wasn’t is not.”

The allegations surfaced on August 19 with Elder, a 69-year-old Republican brand, boosting his campaign to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom as head of the Golden State. Several polls have placed Elder at the top of a pool of 46 replacement candidates, with likely voters almost equally divided over whether to keep or replace Newsom.

Elder’s ex-fiancée Alexandra Datig told Politico that she ended her engagement to Elder after pulling out a loaded gun during an argument in 2015. Elder denied the accusation on Twitter, writing: “I grew up in the center-south; I know exactly how destructive this type of behavior is. It’s not me, and anyone who knows me knows it’s not me.

Ying Ma, his communications director, said in an emailed statement on Friday, “He never wielded a weapon against anyone and he never engaged in domestic violence. Beyond that, we will not comment further on an active investigation. “

News of the inquiry comes less than three weeks before the September 14 recall election and after millions of voters have already voted by mail.

Political experts say an investigation is highly unlikely to derail his campaign.

“It may have been the case in the last century, but I don’t think it makes a difference,” said Bebitch Jeffe, former professor of public policy communication practice at the University of Southern California.

In 2003, just days before Gray Davis’ recall election, the Los Angeles Times reported several allegations of sexual misconduct against Arnold Schwarzenegger.

“I don’t remember the things I did or said 20 years ago. I don’t remember the things I did 30 years ago. And I said a lot of the stuff that’s in there isn’t true because it’s not my behavior, ”the movie star told reporters at the time. “And then other things can be true, and in case they are, that’s why I said I wanted to apologize if I had offended someone, because it didn’t was not my intention. “

Days later, Davis was recalled and Schwarzenegger topped 135 replacement contenders with nearly 49% of the vote.

“It bounced back right away,” said Kimberly Nalder, professor of political science at Sacramento State University, an expert on gender and politics.

While the powerful #MeToo movement over the past two years has pushed Democrats, including President Joe Biden in the case of disgraced former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, to call on prominent members of their party accused of sexual misconduct, some Republicans have become emboldened by Trump’s rhetoric and actions, with many party members apologizing for his comments about inappropriately grabbing women and defending GOP members accused of misconduct.

This “empathy,” as Nalder calls it, is often accompanied by questions about the credibility of the women who come forward – with sympathizers in some cases pointing to the passage of time as evidence that an allegation is opportunistic, while in in reality, it is “fairly normal” for domestic violence victims to delay reporting.

In Elder’s case, some voters may be even more excited to vote for someone they perceive to be wrongly accused.

Longtime listeners of Elder’s radio show, Nalder said, may already be drawn to his views which are “in line with someone who may not respect women as much.”

In the past, Elder has said that women are not as knowledgeable about politics and economics as men are, endorsed discrimination in pregnancy, and said he does not believe the wage gap exists. .

But Elder’s comments can also help remind naysayers, which might help Newsom.

“It gives Democrats a Trumpian bogeyman to motivate their voters to go to the polls,” Nalder said.

But if Newsom’s party wants to play the investigation to its political advantage, time is running out.

“It’s too late,” Bebitch Jeffe said.

Already, more than 3 million of the state’s 22 million voters have returned their ballots – Democrats overtaking Republicans in early voting – and countless more are in the mail.

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