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Is flawed intelligence to blame for the Afghan fiasco? And more than that, American intelligence?
This seemed to be the meaning of Dominic Raab’s testimony before the deputies.
It was the spies’ thoughtful assessment that, yes Afghanistan would start to deteriorate steadily after the allies withdraw, but no Kabul would not fall until next year.
Who had this idea? The foreign minister was not clear, but he said there was an “optimistic bias about what America might or might not do.” Was this a roundabout way of putting some of the blame on the Americans?
UK believed Kabul wouldn’t fall in 2021
Either way, it’s certainly due to the ghosts, says the besieged Foreign Minister, who has been all at sea, critics say, literally given his paddleboard shenanigans, during the Afghan fiasco.
Latest updates live from Afghanistan, as Dominic Raab interviewed by MPs
There has been an uninspiring briefing war over the past few days with the suspicion that the rivals are setting up the Foreign Secretary as the downfall guy for the whole desolate debacle. He does not take it lying down.
To many observers, the assumption that Kabul would hold up until next year will have seemed naïve.
It might have been a perfectly plausible option, but not one to put all your trust in. And it is the fact that the allies did not seem to have effective contingency plans if things go faster that is at issue here.
Out of Westminster now roasting in the heat of a tour of regional allies deeply alarmed by the reestablishment of extremist Islamist tyranny at their borders.
Dominic Raab won’t say who he’s visiting on his regional tour, but he knows they’ll all need to be reassured.
Image: Afghans in Kabul line up outside a bank to withdraw their money after the Taliban took control
He and his ministers were keen to make the most of the assurances given by the Taliban in recent days. They can be as useful as the promises of the Khmer Rouge or any other revolution.
The chatty, English-speaking Talibs in Doha, Qatar, who spoke them are not responsible. The tough men of the guerrilla army that has spent decades in the wilderness are in the driver’s seat, but like any revolution, who knows who will win tomorrow.
Outside powers say they want to see the Taliban’s intentions before committing to backing the country with desperately needed aid as if it were a functioning Western government with a clearly defined policy, not a revolutionary movement in turmoil.
The Taliban can wipe out the world’s largest army, but they cannot rule a modern country on their own. If you were Afghan, you would line up in front of your bank to claim your money too.
Explanation: How will neighboring countries adapt?
The country could quickly sink into financial crisis and then chaos, and its vast ungoverned spaces would be even more fertile ground for terrorists of all colors.
The outside world cannot afford it and may have to stick to helping the Taliban, whether or not Kabul’s new rulers keep their promises.
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