Will voters blame Biden and Democrats for inflation in 2022?

[ad_1]

WASHINGTON

Democrats and Republicans have long expected next year’s midterm elections to depend on the state of the coronavirus pandemic, the job market and the influence of former President Donald Trump on the GOP.

Now they see a potential major new problem emerging: inflation.

Political strategists from both parties are keeping a close watch on the prices of staples, which continue to rise at higher than expected rates, preparing to face a portfolio problem that could resonate with voters in a way. that he hasn’t known for decades.

Republicans in particular see the issue as a potent issue for the next midterm campaign, increasingly placing rising inflation rates at the heart of their attacks on the economic policies of President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress. .

I think the economic challenges facing the country, with inflation at its head, will be the main concern of voters this cycle, said Don Conston, chairman of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC linked to the Republican leadership of the Bedroom. It is already there, and it is likely that it will only intensify in the future.

Not everyone is so sure. Economists say they don’t know if prices will continue to rise, and even if they do, political agents say it’s unclear whether voters will blame the president.

But seasoned Democrats concede it’s an issue they are now watching closely for the first time since soaring inflation in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the latest in a series of challenges facing the White House Biden and the party are confronted.

It’s like a 40-year-old nightmare girlfriend showing up on your steps, said James Carville, chief strategist for Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign.

Carville called the political threat of inflation not an emergency but a matter of concern.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently released data showing that prices rose 5.4% in the past year, according to the Consumer Price Index, which tracks the cost of housing, food, energy and other items. This is the largest year-over-year increase in 13 years, well above the Federal Reserve’s target of a 2% rate of increase. This has led to growing fears in economic and political circles that inflation could continue into 2022.

The data was also released the same week as concerns about supply chain disruptions at ports in crested nations, with the Biden administration announcing that the Port of Los Angeles would operate around the clock to help alleviate the dead end there.

For months, White House officials pushed back questions about their concerns about inflation, saying the price increases are only temporary and mainly a consequence of the economy returning to normal after the worst of the world. pandemic.

INFLATION AT THE CENTER

But polls have shown voters are worried about rising prices.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted late last month found that 63% of Americans said they were very concerned about rising prices for food and consumer goods, overtaking other economic issues they were concerned about. been interviewed.

And according to a Fox News poll in mid-September, 82% of voters said they were concerned about inflation and rising prices, more than any other issue, including the pandemic and the situation in Afghanistan.

Republican agents argue that the longer a concern about inflation, the more naturally voters are likely to blame the ruling party in Washington. They say this will especially be the case if Bidens’ job performance rating on the economy as a whole remains low.

Less than 40% of voters approved of Bidens’ management of the economy in a new Quinnipiac University poll, while two-thirds of voters said the economy was heading in the wrong direction in the latest Politico poll. Morning Consult.

If inflation continues to rise, I think it’s very problematic for Democrats. It’s something we haven’t seen in 40 years, said Glen Bolger, a former Republican pollster. The longer it lasts, the more it impacts the economy and the mood of voters. Voters are nervous.

Republicans have strongly criticized Biden and Democrats on a variety of fronts over the past nine months, from immigration to crime to Afghanistan. But inflation was one of the most prominent issues in their early paid media campaigns.

The NRCC, the CLF, and its associated nonprofit, American Action Network, have all aired television or digital ads in the past three months, blaming vulnerable House Democrats and their policies for the price hike.

The leaders of these groups say they expect this message to continue as the election year approaches.

This is going to be a problem halfway through, NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer said in an interview. He will come back to bite them at the polls in 2022.

While Republicans say inflation might have a particular resonance with independents, commuters and the elderly, they argue the problem is only big because it directly affects Americans at all levels.

You’ll hear candidates talk about it over and over again, because it’s a way to make the consequences of failed leadership real for average voters, said John Ashbrook, Republican strategist and former aide to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

DEMOCRATS ARE PRINTED

Some Democratic pollsters say they are now asking voters about inflation for the first time in recent memory, while other agents say the question arises organically in focus groups. And they recognize that average voters notice and worry about rising prices.

But Democrats also say that if the inflation rate starts to decline over the next few months, the problem could become moot to the public by November 2022. And even if it continues to rise, they argue that Biden and Congressional Democrats aren’t necessarily going to take the brunt of the blame.

According to the recent Fox poll, of the 49% of voters who disapproved of Bidens’ overall performance, only 3% cited inflation as a specific reason.

Raising taxes is a very simple thing to understand, and something people can see in their property tax bill, said Anna Greenberg, a longtime Democratic pollster. It is more difficult for them to see how government policies lead to inflation.

At the end of the day, Democrats still say their party’s fate in the midterm elections will likely be more tied to the trajectory of the pandemic.

It’s out there, but I’m not sure the general public is that focused on it right now, Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt said of inflation. I still think the overriding issue here for Biden and the Democrats is COVID.

Adam Wollner is an associate editor in McClatchys’ Washington office, where he covers politics. He previously covered the 2018 and 2020 elections for McClatchy and Campaigns and Capitol Hill for the National Journal. He graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Alex Roarty has written about the Democratic Party since joining McClatchy in 2017. He has been a campaign reporter in Washington since 2010, having covered Pennsylvania politics and government during the former’s second term. Governor Ed Rendells.

[ad_2]