Blame it on La Niña

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The more than 53 million people traveling for Thanksgiving might hamper your vacation travel plans, but the weather will be a cinch, at least in Colorado.

If you dream or worry about a white Thanksgiving, you can pass it on like yams because our continuous dry pattern sticks like those pecan pie calories.

In fact, other than the wind in parts of the upper Midwest and the east, the weather is not expected to impact nationwide vacation travel plans.

The Boulder National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for much of the Front Range and foothills, including Fort Collins, until 5 p.m. Tuesday. Conditions will include low levels of relative humidity of 8% to 12%; winds 10 to 20 mph, gusts to 35 mph; and a maximum of 65 degrees.

It has been a balmy fall in Colorado, and forecasts indicate it will stay that way for the short term and potentially for the long term.

So if your family tradition includes a touch football game, on the green grass this year, or participating in the town’s Thanksgiving run, a long-sleeved shirt will likely do the trick.

Why the lack of snow?

Blame it on La Niña. More on this topic in a minute.

The weather service is reporting a 0% chance of snow for the region on Thursday, a trend felt across much of the state as only the mountains received much more measurable snowfall.

If you’ve blinked, you might have missed the first official snowfall of the season in Fort Collins. The city recorded 0.4 inches of snow on November 1 and received 0.3 on November 17 for a whopping 0.7 inches this fall.

State climatologist Russ Schumacher said it was 15 years old with 0.7 inches or less of snow on Nov. 22 in Fort Collins.

He said it was not unusual to have little snow on the ground in Fort Collins at this time of year.

What is unusual, he said, is the lack of precipitation. From June 1 to November 22, the city received just 2.79 inches of precipitation, making it the fourth driest city during that time.

Normal precipitation is 8.24 inches for this period.

The story continues

And this fall (or winter) Denver will record its last first snowfall dating back to 1882, when weather records were first kept. The last snow in Denver fell on April 21.

Schumacher said a La Niña model has come into being with results consistent with his influence. This includes heavy rains in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in devastating flooding, and southern states that have experienced continual dry conditions.

A La Niña is the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate model that occurs when cooler-than-average waters develop in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast puts an 87% chance that La Niña will continue in February.

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What does La Niña mean for the Colorado snowpack?

La Niñas can be like Jekyll and Hyde.

Last year was a La Niña year, and around the same time last year Fort Collins had received over 15 inches of snow on its way to 80 inches, about 25 inches more than normal.

The city also received its first snow, with 2.3 inches on September 8. It was the city’s second longest snow season, measured from first to last snow, of 244 days. He had three days less than the record set in 1946-47.

In Colorado, the La Niña years generally favor more snow in the northern part of the mountains compared to the southern part.

Schumacher said central states like Colorado may experience cool and wet conditions or dry and hot conditions, which can be further enhanced by the force of La Niña.

“It’s still very early days and a lot can change by spring,” Schumacher said.

Fort Collins Forecast

Here’s what the Boulder National Weather Service is planning for this week and weekend:

Wednesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Windy, with a north-northwest wind of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts of up to 31 mph. Low around 20.

Thanksgiving Day (Thanksgiving Day Run): Sunny, with wind near 51 and southwest 5-10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Low around 29.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 61 and a low around 34.

Saturday (CSU home game at 7 p.m.): Sunny, with a high near 58 and a low around 29.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 62 and a low around 33.

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Journalist Miles Blumhardt searches for stories that impact your life. Whether it’s news, outdoors, sports – you name it, it wants to point it out. An idea of ​​history? Contact him at [email protected] or on Twitter @MilesBlumhardt. Support his work and that of other Colorado journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Colorado Weather: No Snow Forecast For Thanksgiving Trip And Beyond

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