Blame for wizard regression lies with failed Beal-Dinwiddie experiment

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The Washington Wizards were forced to retool on the fly after last season, with serious consequences looming for the franchise.

Russell Westbrook requested a trade after just one season, but the front office somehow swindled draft capital plus three rotational Los Angeles Lakers players as they escaped that albatross contract.

From Washington’s perspective, it made too much sense not to capitalize and trade some plays around their rotation with a major 2021-22 campaign looming. Bradley Beal rumors have been raging for several years now, and Beal’s departure potential has never been higher since he can hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2022.

With a roster that seemed to perfectly complement their superstar shooting guard with two-way versatility across the board, I bought the team’s hook, line and sinker due to their strong start.

Entering the season with a 10-3 record, Washington was on track to finally show progress before Beal’s career-altering decision not to sign an extension this summer. However, the team has since gone completely off the rails. A 10-3 start led to a disappointing 14-24 mark thereafter. Washington is on the outside looking right now in the reloaded Eastern Conference.

Take a look at the advanced metrics of the Wizards’ hot start followed by their regression to the mean:

10-3 start: 107.5 OffRtg (16th), 102.7 DefRtg (4th), +4.8 NetRtg (6th)

14-24 from: 109.7 OffRtg (22nd), 114.7 DefRtg (27th), -5.0 NetRtg (24th)

As the forward look of the Wizards’ hits and misses on the field shows, the main culprit is on the defensive end. The Wizards’ defense clicked early on, but they enjoyed a slow league-wide start offensively.

Zooming out, the Washington 10-3 clip still showed a warning sign for the buyer. With 107.5 points per 100 possessions, Washington’s start-of-season mark would now rank them 27th in the conference.

Washington’s seismic collapse on the defensive end is the reverse of what’s happening with the Charlotte Hornets. Twelve points per 100 worst possessions over that span, the Wizards have multiple exposed holes en route to a tumultuous trade deadline.

According to longtime NBA insider Marc Stein, Washington has made it known that three players are available for the team with the best offer: Spencer Dinwiddie, Montrezl Harrell and Thomas Bryant. The latter two make sense, especially since Daniel Gafford emerged in a long-term play at DC. Leading the way to heavy minutes from Gafford makes a lot of sense, but back to Dinwiddie here.

Coming into this season, Dinwiddie has ticked all the boxes for a potentially perfect backcourt fit for Beal. Dinwiddie’s profile with creating on the ball, playing, as well as nights when he can relieve pressure from Beal was rightly appealing to the Wizards. Washington acquired Dinwiddie from Brooklyn by sign-and-trade, signing a three-year, $54 million deal.

The departure of Westbrook and the addition of Dinwiddie was meant to address the issues Washington saw with a heavy-duty ball handler alongside Beal. Instead, this fit didn’t feel right at all throughout.

When Beal and Dinwiddie shared the field this season, Washington is 13-18. Among the two-man combinations around the Wizards star, Dinwiddie checks in low on the totem. The Dinwiddie-Beal backcourt was a nightmare on the offensive side, showing no real chemistry with an OffRtg of 101.7. The defense was passable on points between this duo, but the offense was truly a disaster to watch unfold.

Beal’s score from when Dinwiddie came in and out is a damning stat:

Beal with Dinwiddie (22 games): 21.5 PPG

Beal without Dinwiddie (9 games): 29.0 PPG

The form of the squad on display between Washington and Dinwiddie has been a nightmare scenario. According to Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer, Wizards teammates think Dinwiddie is a shell of himself after a knee injury, so now they don’t want him there.

Dinwiddie also said last week that he tried to be a vocal leader with the Wizards, but the reception he received was not well received.

“It’s an interesting situation. I spoke a little early,” Dinwiddie said. “It was not necessarily welcome. And so, as I said, I try to do whatever is asked of me. In the end, everyone has a role to play.

Dinwiddie’s form in DC didn’t allow him to play at the same level we saw in Brooklyn, but he did himself no favors with his new team. Compared to his breakout campaign in 2019-20, Dinwiddie looks like a shell of himself from a scoring perspective.

Washington expected 18-20 ppg, but instead received a Dinwiddie who couldn’t complete Beal. We also saw an epic meltdown in the Wizarding defense, which resulted in the loss of several double-digit leads in the process.

So what’s next for wizards after admitting failure with the Dinwiddie experiment? Will the Wizards now go full sale or make one last big swing to appease Beal?

Whichever button Washington decides to press will have major ramifications until next week’s trade deadline.

If Wizards decide to go buyers, don’t be surprised if they make a tell-all move for Jerami Grant or Domantas Sabonis. On the other hand, if Wizards sell, does that seal Beal’s long-term fate in DC? It certainly looks like a foreshadowing, if that is the decision of the wizards.

The regression has hit Washington to the point that huge decisions must be made immediately. Perhaps it’s time to say goodbye to the Beal era, which lasted for many seasons but led to disappointing results far more often than not.

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