Dyer: Blame ignorance, not intrigue, for US blunders on Ukraine

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Breadcrumb Trail Links Columnists for General Mark Milley, Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff, speak during a press conference at the Pentagon in Washington, DC on November 16, 2022. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) Article content

When Washington’s two most senior military and intelligence officials make the same obvious mistake in public three times in three weeks, you have to wonder what they’re doing. Could it be simple ignorance or do they have a hidden agenda?

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The first was General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He caused a stir on November 9 when he said the slowdown in fighting in Ukraine with the onset of winter could open a window. . . negotiation opportunity.

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There must be a mutual recognition that a military victory is probably, in the true sense of the word, perhaps not attainable by military means, he added, and therefore you must look to d other means.

Milley’s stumbling remarks caused considerable outcry, widely seen as an attempt to pressure Ukraine into abandoning its stated goal of reclaiming all territory conquered by Russia and settling for the best possible deal as long as it has the chance. military advantage.

He was back there a week later at a joint press conference with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Again, he noted that the approach of winter, when the pace of fighting is expected to slow down, could open a window for a political solution, as driving Russia out of Ukraine completely would be a very difficult task.

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Then it was the turn of US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who told the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California on Saturday that we were already seeing something of a slowdown in the conflict. . . and we expect that’s probably what we’ll see in the months to come.

Both sides will try to refit, resupply and rebuild for next spring’s offensives, Haines said. She didn’t say Ukraine should therefore start negotiating a compromise deal now, but the same amateurish mistake drove her argument.

Repeat after me: winter is the best time to wage war in Ukraine (and Russia).

The worst time to fight is spring rasputitsa (mud season), when rain and melting snow make unpaved roads nearly impassable for heavy vehicles and off-road travel impossible for about two months.

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Summer is a good time to fight, as the ground is dry, the weather warm and the visibility good. The fall rasputitsa (October-November) slows things down a lot, but it’s not as bad as the spring one.

And then comes winter. Yes, it’s cold, but so what? The ground will be frozen within a week or 10 days, and the next three months will be ideal for quick off-road travel. For classic high-speed armored thrusts, some of which we are likely to see, at least from Ukraine.

So the question now is: Do Milley and Haines simply ignore the basic historical realities of ground warfare in Eastern Europe (most major Soviet offensives of World War II began in winter), or do they misrepresent things deliberately? If so, who are they trying to fool?

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Not the Ukrainians, of course. Western audiences? It is plausible.

Twisting Ukrainians’ arms to force them into a quick compromise peace may suit official White House and Pentagon agendas, where they worry about a possible escalation into nuclear war. But a cover story explaining why Ukraine can’t score big victories in the near future would be needed anyway to sell that to Western voters.

But frankly, I don’t believe in that particular conspiracy theory. There is no doubt that the White House and NATO as a whole have Ukrainians on a leash. They sincerely fear that kyiv will win too big and cause a real international crisis.

But I have no trouble believing that sheer ignorance is behind this whole weird subplot about a winter break from fighting.

Gwynne Dyer is a freelance journalist based in London, England

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