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Russian military officials are proposing a major overhaul of the country’s armed forces, including raising the age of compulsory conscription, as the death toll from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine 10 months ago continues to increase.

The proposals, announced earlier this week by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, would increase the size of Russia’s armed forces by around 30% to 1.5 million troops and amount to a reversal of reforms undertaken more than a decade ago. years that aimed to modernize its Soviet era. force structuring.

They are also an acknowledgment of the systemic problems the Russian military continues to face, issues highlighted by the bitter conflict in Ukraine.

Russia has recorded more than 100,000 dead and injured in Ukraine since February, according to public estimates by Western intelligence and military services. The last time Moscow released an official death toll was in September, when Shoigu announced that 5,937 soldiers had been killed in the war.

To replenish its forces in Ukraine, the Kremlin in September announced a mobilization campaign aimed at bringing 300,000 troops, mostly reservists and people with military experience, into the fight.

The mobilization order was separate from the regular, semi-annual conscription, which fields between 120,000 and 140,000 men twice a year. These conscripts serve for one year.

Under current law, the project targets men between the ages of 18 and 27. These soldiers are not authorized to be sent overseas or to active combat.

Speaking Dec. 21 at a year-end conference with senior military officials as well as President Vladimir Putin, Shoigu called for raising the age bracket for conscripts to 21-30, and he said that Russia needed an overall strength of 1.5. million to ensure “the fulfillment of tasks aimed at guaranteeing the security of Russia”.

He gave no time frame for that to happen.

Currently, the Russian army has about 1.1 million soldiers in total.

With conscripts banned from serving in Ukraine, officials turned to volunteer soldiers – “kontraktniki” – to wage the war. Prior to the February 24 invasion, Russia had about 400,000 total contract troops, including about 150,000 in the ground forces.

The private military company Vagner Group has also deployed around 50,000 soldiers to Ukraine, according to the British Ministry of Defence, most of whom are believed to be inmates recruited from Russian prisons with promises of early release.

The expanded Russian forces will include 695,000 contract troops, Shoigu said, with 521,000 expected to be in service by the end of 2023.

Shoigu also proposed a major reorganization of the military force structure, particularly in the Western Military District, whose forces are positioned opposite those of NATO member states.

Other changes would move some Air Force units under the command of ground forces, and existing infantry, marine and airborne brigades would be turned into outright divisions, similar to what existed under the structures Soviets.

If implemented, the proposed reforms would undo a series of changes undertaken by Shoigu’s predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, after the 2008 war in Georgia, which revealed glaring problems in the Russian military.

Among other things, Serdyukov’s changes dismantled the structure of the Soviet-era armed forces, moving away from large divisions towards more mobile and largely self-sufficient brigades, and trying to increase the interoperability of different branches.

Dara Massicot, a Russian armed forces researcher at RAND Corp., a US think tank, called the proposals a “substantial” reorganization and a partial reversal of Serdyukov’s reforms.

“The force structure was only part of the reforms,” ​​she told RFE/RL. “So on that front, yes, it’s a major step back. But the other principles are still there: modern equipment, professional enlisted service, new weapons, etc.”

But the move from the brigade structure to the emphasis on divisions was a nod to the thinking of former officer corps familiar with the Soviet structure.

“They have always been unhappy with the brigades and the heavy reductions in ground forces,” she said.

The mobilization order announced by President Vladimir Putin in September shook Russian society, sparking a wave of emigration of men and women fleeing the prospect of being targeted and sent to war.

Rights activists say the Shoigu changes only serve to further “militarize” Russian society.

“I wouldn’t call it reform. There’s really no trace of reform here,” Aleksei Tabalov, who heads the advocacy group School of Consscripts, said in an interview with CurrentTime. “The real reform would be the creation of an entirely professional army, where there would be no room for compulsory conscription.”

“There are two stated goals: to preserve offensive operations in Ukraine and military opposition to NATO enlargement. These are the two goals that are loudly proclaimed and for which, in fact, the life of the Russian society will be directed more,” he added.

“Militarization, increase in the age of recruitment, increase in the army, increase in military expenditure; everything is now subordinated to military ends.”

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