Excess deaths hit their highest level since the peak of the pandemic – how much are NHS failures to blame? | UK News

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Almost 2,500 more people died in the week to December 23 than expected, 20% more than the five-year average for the same period, new figures from the ONS reveal.

This is the highest number of additional deaths in a week since February 2021, during the deadliest period of the pandemic.

There have been more than 30,000 more deaths than expected in the past six months alone, or 1,155 per week.

Even excluding the 8,000 deaths caused by COVID during this period, there are on average 848 more people dying each week than the average for 2016-19 and 2021 (excluding pandemic-affected 2020 ).

Analysis by LCP actuaries suggests that a significant number of these deaths could be due to the ongoing NHS crisis and delays in emergency treatment.

More deaths at home

Many of the recent excess deaths are occurring at home, as opposed to hospitals or care homes.

In the week to December 23, 1,120 more people died at home than usual, 37.5% more than the five-year average.

In total, over the past six months, 81,804 people have died at home, 19,270 (30.8%) more than the five-year average of 2015-19. This is a much bigger difference than the change in other parameters.

Stuart McDonald, head of longevity and demographic information at LCP Actuaries, said while some of the rise in home deaths could be attributed to NHS delays, it could also be attributed to patient preference.

“During the pandemic, more people have decided they want to live their last days at home rather than in hospital where access by friends and family can be difficult. This trend has continued. , supported by the NHS.

“On top of that, working from home has potentially allowed more people to care for seriously ill relatives full-time instead of needing nursing homes or other forms of support.

“However, there are more sudden deaths where the fact that they occur at home is of more concern. Wait times for category 2 ambulances – those for things like heart attacks and strokes – have exceeded the hour instead of the 18 minute target.

“We don’t know how many of these additional deaths at home are of the ‘acceptable’ type driven by patient preference and how many are of concern.”

Data on where that balance is does not yet exist, but Mr McDonald said England’s Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, was aware of the problem and was trying to find out more.

Why are these additional deaths occurring?

In addition to these potential additional deaths at home, analysis by LCP actuaries suggested that up to 500 deaths per week could be caused by delays in A&E.

In November, almost half of people attending major A&Es had to wait more than four hours to be seen – the worst level on record. And more people had to wait more than 12 hours to be admitted to hospital after being assessed for A&E than in 10 years between the start of 2011 and the end of 2020.

The LCP’s 500 deaths per week is based on a university study which showed that for every 72 people waiting 12 hours to be admitted to hospital after arriving at A&E, there would be one additional death.

Multiplying that number by the number of waits longer than 12 hours yields a figure of 497 deaths per week attributed to A&E long waits alone. That’s still lower than the total number of excess deaths we’re seeing right now.

A spokesperson for NHS England told Sky News they had not acknowledged the figures: “Although services are under significant pressure across the NHS, there are a number of different reasons why we We can see higher than normal levels of mortality, particularly due to adverse weather conditions and population growth.”

The population increase is taken into account by the continuous mortality survey. Instead of using the average of previous years for their reference, in their calculations they project the number of expected deaths.

Using these figures, the number of additional deaths in the week to December 23 would be 2,170 (18%). This is slightly lower than the ONS figure, but it still represents a very significant number of people who have died in just one week, who would still be alive under more typical circumstances.

Mr McDonald also told Sky News that the figures attributed by LCP to the A&E delays would likely be a low estimate rather than too high.

Due to data limitations, they did not include people who waited between four and 12 hours, which the study found also results in additional deaths (although at a lower rate).

And the figure of one out of 72 that they used corresponds to expectations of exactly 12 hours. There are probably more deaths when people wait longer than 12 hours – including thousands.

What is happening in other countries?

NHS England chief strategy officer Chris Hopson stressed that the UK is not the only country with higher than normal death tolls at the moment.

He said, “We won’t know [if delays at A&E are causing the excess deaths] until we’ve done the detailed work, which we’re doing.”

“We are seeing, like Germany, like Italy, like Spain, we are seeing higher levels of mortality than we expected. But we know that is due to a number of different factors. .”

Figures from Our World in Data suggest that other countries have indeed seen excess deaths in recent months, although most are not to the same extent as the UK.

The level of excess deaths in Germany remains similar to that of the UK, but the likes of Italy, Spain and France have been lower more recently.

Every percentage point difference equals thousands more people dying each year.

The Data and Forensics team is a versatile unit dedicated to delivering transparent journalism from Sky News. We collect, analyze and visualize data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite imagery, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while showing how our journalism is done.

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