The Astros are hitting below par. Don’t blame the injuries; Blame 1st base and catcher

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The Astros have just completed the first month of baseball. As has been their custom on other occasions during this championship era, their bats are off to a slow start. Currently, the Astros rank 19th in MLB in wRC+, with a below-average rating of 98. They’re 22nd in homers with 27 but, miraculously, are more mediocre in runs scored, ranked 13th with 135.

But let’s not forget, the Astros were even worse at the end of April last year, with an 89 wRC+, only slightly better in 2021 with a 101 wRC+. And even in 2017, when the Astros rivaled the 1927 Yankees in team stats, they only started at 107.

Well, wait till Altuve and Brantley come back from injury, the chorus shouts. The same choir was praying that someone from the depths somewhere would warm up and make the loss of these two preeminent sluggers less painful. These people have arrived.

We all know Mauricio Dubon, who moved to second base in place of Altuve. Sure, he didn’t throw anything out of the park, but he probably hits for an average and similarly higher OBP than if Altuve was there. His slash line:

.317/.340/.406 with 109 wRC+ fielding and above. Not Altuve’s career averages, and we could use a few Altuve bombs, but it’s not exactly like he’s the biggest hole in the lineup. With a runner on second and the score tied, there’s no one I’d rather see at the plate right now than Mauricio Dubon.

Then there’s Brantley’s replacement. It is difficult to know exactly who it is. It was a combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Corey Julks. None of these three were exactly black holes in programming either. Let’s look.

Corey Julks………………………295/.302/.423, 98 wRC+ in 80 AP.

Chas McCormick……………..275/.383/.500, 150 wRC+ in 48 AP.

Jake Meyers……………………. .268/.333/.394 with a 107 wRC+

But since McCormick went to IL, it’s much better with Jake. .308/.368/.481 with a 140 wRC+ in 57 AP.

Neither outfield third run nor second base is killing the Astros. So what?

I don’t have to tell the dedicated readers of this website the answer. His first base and catcher.

Receiver Martin Maldonado cuts .162/.250/.235 with a 40 wRC+. Out of 31 Seekers with over 70 AP, Maldonado is ranked last in wRC+ and last in fWAR at -0.3. Its DEF rating is barely above water at 0.1. This WAR rating means that currently Maldonado is worse than a replacement player. I think Yainier Diaz and Corey Lee are probably better substitutes. Perhaps Cesar Salazar could do better.

Jose Abreu, MVP as recently as 2020, is almost as bad at a premium offensive position:

.235/.266/.269, with a 47 wRC+, the worst in the major leagues for qualifying first basemen. He’s actually worse than Maldonado in fWAR: -0.6. The slugger has an ISO of 0.034. At least Maldonado has two circuits. Abreu is gone after more than a month. And as far as I remember, he wasn’t even close.

It hurts to compare Abreu to the late Yuli Gurriel, a favorite of Astros fans and anyone who loves baseball. He cuts: .306/358/.449 in 53 APs in Miami. Oh, we should have kept Gurriel. It’s time to abandon Abreu, they say.

But really, the fact that Gurriel has had a great rebound so far from last year’s weak performance (people forget he also started fast last year) is exactly why we should not abandon Abreu. Abreu can also come back.

Of course, he is definitely in crisis. The worst of his career, no doubt. I don’t think it’s all down to his age. He should figure out his swing, then we can expect a positive regression. Don’t sell low. (Like we did with Lance Berkman at the Yankees, remember?).

But Maldonado? That’s it. That’s who it’s time to cut sunk costs and move on. Let the future develop. They can’t do worse, even in the present.

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