Who is responsible for the drone attack on the Kremlin?

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Washington: Russia has accused Ukraine of targeting President Vladimir Putin’s residence in the Kremlin using drones, a charge kyiv has denied.

Unverified video footage circulating on social media appears to show an explosion on the domed roof of a building known as the Kremlin Senate, which houses the presidential administration, although the exact target and perpetrator remain unknown .

Moscow has accused kyiv of attempting to assassinate Putin as part of a “planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life of the President of the Russian Federation”.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied that his country was responsible and said: “We are fighting on our territory, we are defending our villages and towns.”

Moscow has accused kyiv of attempting to assassinate Vladimir Putin in a “planned terrorist act and an attempt on the life of the President of the Russian Federation”. AFP

Ukrainian presidential spokesman Mikhaylo Podolyak suggested that Moscow was to blame.

“Such staged reports by Russia should be viewed only as an attempt to prepare an informational backdrop for a full-scale terrorist attack against Ukraine,” Podolyak said.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also questioned the veracity of Russia’s account, saying, “I would take anything that comes out of the Kremlin with a really big salt shaker.”

And Eastern European expert Sergej Sumlenny said he believed Russia was responsible.

He cited factors such as the Kremlin providing quick confirmation of the incident and the release of apparent CCTV footage from government-controlled cameras as evidence that Russia “wants us to see it”.

Could Ukraine be responsible?

Although the perpetrator is unknown, Ukraine has the technical capabilities to carry out long-range strikes inside Russia, and has done so.

“At this point, it may be Ukraine’s UJ-22 drone, or a Chinese-made Mugin-5, which was apparently used by Ukraine before,” while Ukraine’s PD-1 drone Kiev is another option, said Samuel Bendett, a researcher in unmanned military systems who is an analyst with CNA’s Russian Studies program.

The UJ-22 “has a long range and can potentially reach Moscow,” but it’s unclear where the drones were launched from at this point, said Bendett, who stressed that much is still unknown for the UJ-22. moment.

Although the perpetrator is unknown, Ukraine has the technical capabilities to carry out long-range strikes inside Russia, and has done so. AFP

Dominika Kunertova, senior researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, agrees.

“I think it’s possible that Ukraine has developed a long-range drone capability that could reach Moscow. Extending the strike distance has been Ukraine’s main focus when it comes to innovation in unmanned systems,” Kunertova said.

But she added that “one of the main strategic advantages of using a drone for this purpose is denial”, the harder it is to trace any attack back to Ukraine, the less risk there is of escalation in the conflict.

What impact will it have?

In terms of physical damage, very little: AFP saw people climbing outside stairs to the roof of the Kremlin Senate, which appeared unscathed.

People were also walking around the neighborhood, and there was no enhanced police presence.

But a strike from an adversary at the heart of the Russian government would still have “a strong psychological impact”, Bendett said.

It would also raise questions about the quality of Russian air defenses.

“Russian commentators suggested even last year that he probably can’t protect the whole country and that there may be loopholes that can be exploited,” Bendett said, although “it’s not clear why this drone was not intercepted over Moscow”.

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