Summer of extremes: is climate change responsible for heat waves and floods?

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Experts say that if we don’t stop burning fossil fuels today, what we are experiencing now could become the new normal.

July heat waves brought record temperatures to three continents and heavy rains caused deadly flooding across the world.

Meteorologists are predicting that Europe could reach its highest temperature on record in the coming days, with parts of Italy expected to reach over 48C. China has already broken its record with a scorching 52.2C in the remote town of Sanboa on Sunday.

In the United States, about 90 million people – 27% of the country’s population – live in areas that are expected to experience dangerous levels of heat this week.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is no immediate respite in sight after this summer of extremes. The United Nations meteorological organization said high temperatures around the world could continue into August.

But what is driving these extreme weather conditions and is climate change to blame?

Is our climate becoming more extreme?

Climate change doesn’t just mean things are getting warmer. Weather conditions are disrupted, leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events – especially high temperatures and heavy rains.

According to Alvaro Silva, an expert with the WMO’s Climate Science Division, a growing number of studies demonstrate the link between rapid warming and changes in essential weather patterns.

With the Arctic warming four times faster than the global average, research suggests higher temperatures in this region are slowing strong winds known as the jet stream.

The jet stream becomes weaker and more wavy as warm air is carried north and cold air south, he explains.

Under these conditions, quasi-stationary weather conditions are established and lead to heat waves and prolonged droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others.

The start of the El Nio climatic phenomenon in June should only amplify the frequency and intensity of these extreme events.

This means the waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual, fueling extreme weather and – when combined with excessive warming due to climate change – bringing record high temperatures.

The development of El Nio, a natural phenomenon involving the release of heat from the Pacific Ocean, is also contributing to the heat, Dr Friederike Otto, senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, told Euronews Green.

But human-caused climate change is the main reason world temperature records are being broken.

How do we know climate change is to blame?

Climatologists use complex computer simulations to determine if humans are to blame for worsening extreme weather events.

In April this year, Spain, Portugal and North West Africa suffered another record heat wave. Spain experienced its hottest April temperature on record at 38.8C at Córdoba airport in the south of the country.

The three days of exceptionally hot weather came on top of historic multi-year droughts in many of these regions.

Scientists from Morocco, France, the Netherlands, the United States and the United Kingdom have come together to assess the impact of climate change.

They found that the April 26-28 heat wave was at least 100 times more likely due to the climate crisis. According to World Weather Attribution (WWA) research, these extreme temperatures would have been statistically impossible in the absence of human-caused global warming.

While July heat wave data has yet to be analyzed, research points to climate change as the cause.

An IPCC report published earlier this year confirmed that there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events since the 1950s. A separate study of European heat waves reveals that these events have become increasingly severe over the past two decades.

And the WWA says the UK hitting highs of 40C in July 2022 would have been extremely unlikely without climate change.

Dr Otto says this heat is unprecedented for humans, with Europe experiencing longer, hotter and more frequent heat waves due to human-induced climate change.

People may call it a new era or uncharted territory, but it’s not climate collapse or runaway warming. We still have time to secure a livable future for many, but we need to phase out fossil fuels quickly and reduce global emissions to net zero, she says.

Are we heading towards a new climate frontier?

James Hansen, the American scientist who first warned the world about the greenhouse effect in 1980, said it looks like we’re heading towards a new climate frontier.

In congressional testimony in 1988 and 1989, and in a paper appended to the 1989 testimony, we noted that global warming is making wet places wetter and dry places drier, he wrote alongside two other climatologists in a statement released last week.

They say the world is now moving towards higher temperatures than at any time in the last million years.

On a global average, June 2023 was by far the hottest June on record, the statement said.

These weather extremes also mean stronger storms, droughts and more intense heat waves.

And scientists say this weather will only become more frequent and more extreme as long as humans continue to release greenhouse gases.

If we stopped burning fossil fuels today, what we are experiencing now would become the new normal, says Dr. Otto.

But as long as we burn fossil fuels, the climate will continue to warm and we will see much hotter extremes than this year.

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