Faulty monsoon forecast for Delhi: IMD blames “rare failure of prediction models”

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India’s meteorological department blamed its failure to predict the New Delhi monsoon on digital models on Monday. The nation’s capital is in scorching heat even as the rains hit neighboring regions, such as Aligarh in Uttar Pradesh and Karnal in Haryana.

“Such a type of failure of numerical models in predicting the advance of the monsoon over Delhi is rare and rare,” IMD said in a statement. “Needless to say, IMD has predicted the advance of the monsoon over Delhi with fairly precise accuracy over the past few years with great precision, as well as the advance of the monsoon over various parts of the country during the last few years. monsoon 2021 accurately about four to five days. forward.”

The meteorological department said it was monitoring the situation continuously and would provide regular updates on the entry and advance of the monsoon in the rest of northwest India, including Delhi.

Listing chronologically his forecast for northern India, based on signals from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, he said:

# The southwest monsoon continued to advance across the country until June 13 with favorable atmospheric circulation and a low pressure system over the Bay of Bengal after the monsoon entered Kerala on June 3.

# As of June 13, it covered most parts of the country except Northwestern India. On the same day, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggested favorable conditions with humid, low-lying easterly winds reaching the northwestern part of the country. It can help advance the monsoon in most of Madhya Pradesh; the rest of Uttar Pradesh; Delhi; Haryana and the Punjab over the next 48 hours, showed the models. A press release was issued accordingly indicating that the monsoon is likely to advance in Delhi by June 15.

# On June 14, however, weather analysis based on the consensus of satellite and NWP models reported the advancing trough in westerly winds at mid-latitudes, causing weakening easterly winds over the north. -West of India. “Due to the unfavorable influence of these mid-latitude westerlies, a further advance of the monsoon in the remaining parts of northwest India, including Delhi, was not expected. As a result, IMD issued an updated press release on June 14 stating that further progress of the southwest monsoon in the remaining parts of northwest India, including Delhi, would be slow and delayed, ”IMD said. This development of interaction with westerly winds could not, however, be anticipated by the prediction models.

# On June 16, another press release was issued, alluding to a delayed monsoon over Delhi and a slow progression in other parts of northwest India. As a result, the monsoon entered parts of northwest India on June 19.

# “Since June 20, there has been no further advance of the monsoon due to the weakening or breaking up of monsoon conditions. “Regular press releases were issued and updated to the media from time to time on June 22, 24, 26 and 30 and July 1, indicating such delays in the advancement of the monsoon in the remaining parts of the northwest India, including Delhi and weak / interrupted monsoon conditions in the country, “IMD said. He clarified that the delay in the advance of the monsoon was mainly due to (a ) the absence of a low pressure zone formation over the Bay of Bengal, (b) the absence of a monsoon trough at mean sea level near Delhi, (c) five to six western disturbances displaced from west to east across northern India which dominated the easterly monsoon winds.

# On July 5, another monsoon status press release was issued predicting that the monsoon would enter the remaining parts of western Uttar Pradesh, some other parts of Punjab, Haryana, from Rajasthan and Delhi around July 10.

# The latest model analysis also showed that humid easterly winds in the lower Bay of Bengal would spread to northwest India, covering Punjab and Haryana by July 10, causing the advance of the monsoon and increased rainfall activity over northwest India, including Delhi.

# The humid easterly winds therefore spread to north-west India. After July 8, lower level easterly winds established along the foothills and from July 9 easterly winds established over the plains of northwest India. These moisture-laden winds have resulted in increased cloudiness and relative humidity. “This also led to the resumption of the monsoon in the region and the appearance of a fairly extensive / extensive rainfall activity over eastern Rajasthan, HP, Uttarakhand, J&K and scattered rains over the Punjab and the western Rajasthan. However, this did not cause significant rainfall activity over Delhi even though there was rainfall activity in neighboring places around Delhi, ”IMD said.

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