NATO blames Disney Plus for Black Widow Drop is not a smart argument

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Relying on Disney + as the primary reason for the Marvel movie’s box office disappointment, NATO presented a hard-to-believe case.

After “Black Widow” shed 67% in its second weekend, the National Association of Theater Owners dropped its own bombshell with a press release stating that the Marvel movie proved that “theatrical exclusivity is the way to be continued “and asked,” Why has such a well-done, well-received and long-awaited film underperform? “In its next breath, NATO answered its own question:” This shows that an exclusive theatrical release means more revenue for all stakeholders in every life cycle of the film. ”

Disney, other movie studios and their Wall Street supporters might not agree, but as IndieWire box office editor Tom Brueggemann and editor Anne Thompson point out, in this conversation, NATO may not have done the best job proving its point.

TOM: The National Association of Theater Owners released a statement on Sunday blaming the unusually large drop in “Black Widow” revenue on Disney, which placed the film early on on Disney + (at an additional cost of $ 29.99) . The statement included a few valid points, but highlighting PVOD as the sole reason for the fall (41 percent on the first Saturday it opened, then 67 percent on the second weekend), NATO damaged its own case.

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ANNE: NATO Chief Executive Officer John Fithan and his Lt. Patrick Corcoran (Vice President and Director of Communications) have to make a compelling case as to why cinemas are the best possible way for studios to monetize the film. more money on their multi-million dollar films. Over the decades, the many threats to movies have all become ancillary markets – television, cable, home video – and the box office has generated that value. This is how Hollywood determined the value of a movie and calculated the numbers on how it would perform in all the markets following an exclusive theatrical release.

Now there is a new dominant distribution model defying the old one and Corcoran’s press release tries to argue that releasing movies in theaters is still the best way for a Marvel Grandmast to earn its billion dollars. dollars in the world. He wants every studio manager to read his numbers and cry.

TOM: One person in particular, I guess – the president of Marvel Studios, Kevin Feige. But that’s why I wonder why NATO chose to argue on this point. Studio heads know that “Black Widow” was available on PVOD from day one – not the first Saturday, not the second weekend. I guess they all had the same thought as I did: Hey, isn’t the reaction of those who saw the movie in theaters (and maybe at home too) a major reason why it dropped ?

“F9”

Universal collection / courtesy Everett

I feel like it was missing the sizzle of a lot of Marvel movies. It was more like other big franchises like the Bond movies, the “Fast and Furious” series, the “Mission: Impossible” movies – the great sets, the contemporary European setting – and lacked in fun, especially the genre that comes interaction with other Marvel characters. Entertaining, and more than competent, but not out of the ordinary. Plus, it got a 58% male audience first rather than a possible female boost. Maybe this group was not captivated.

The industry people I hear have a much more nuanced reaction to its performance. They are aware that we have many examples of successful day and date releases, as well as similar drops. “F9” also fell 67% on its second weekend – and it’s not in PVOD yet! “Godzilla vs. Kong” fell 56% in its second weekend, and it was available free on HBO Max to subscribers, not an additional $ 29.99.

To me, that weakens an argument when you underestimate the knowledge of those you want to influence. This is a complicated question. Exaggerating this case reduced the impact of more valid points – the impact on total revenue stream and piracy.

ANNE: I really liked “Black Widow”. I guess the opening weekend audience was the most enthusiastic and excited fan base and the second weekend drop is a combination of weak word of mouth and the ability to buy it in. line. Additionally, isn’t the recent wave of COVID also playing in the numbers, as many moviegoers may not want to gather indoors in an often mask-less environment?

Corcoran is not addressing this issue as its real fear is that after the pandemic these new distribution models will solidify to become the norm. Exhibitors hope and pray that somehow they will revert to the old ways.

To quote the cliché, you can’t put genius back in the bottle. The day and date versions are here to stay. Better a movie to hit theaters for premium access than to stream for the price of a monthly subscription – like Pixar’s “Luca”, which meant families weren’t in the theaters. movie theaters and didn’t buy popcorn and candy. This is how theaters make their money. At least that way, moviegoers have a choice to watch their movie.

TOM: There are advantages to the options. And while that makes their argument less dramatic, it does include some benefits for theaters.

First, we cannot assume that the fat ones will recover; certainly not anytime soon. Studios like Disney that spend over $ 200 million making movies are more likely to continue doing so if they can be guaranteed more revenue, which this model does. Second, according to all reports, theaters pay less for movie rentals – perhaps significantly – when the movies are also shown at home. Yes, they want butt in seats that buy dealerships, but it’s possible that with lower rents their overall return won’t be significantly lower. Third, I guess PVOD meant Disney was spending more on marketing. It also helps theaters.

Your point on COVID still a factor is also quite appropriate as an overall deterrent. Maybe that’s a big reason for the drops – like you said, most likely to see it is gone ASAP. As for the group of remaining ticket buyers, it included a group of people who still do not return in numbers.

Of course, theaters and NATO would prefer not to have the alternative. And you are right, it is much better than “Luca”, which did not elicit a NATO statement; this “fault” was much more glaring. Disney is clearly testing different models – theaters with PVOD, theaters with Disney + and without PVOD, theaters only, Disney + only. I suspect this will continue indefinitely and they will make their decisions accordingly. But whatever Disney and Marvel decide to do will be determined more by what they think is best for Disney + than the theaters.

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