Russia and China see the US retreat

The withdrawal of Americans from Afghanistan ends tragically and has sweeping strategic implications. A major miscalculation based on the end of the endless mantras of war was that the withdrawal affected only Afghanistan. Instead, the withdrawal is a significant, and deeply sad, strategic reshuffle of the United States. China and Russia, our main global rivals, are already seeking advantages.

They and many others judge the abandonment of Afghanistan not only because of its direct consequences for global terrorist threats, but also for what it says is about US goals, capabilities and a global solution.

In the near future, responding to both the threats and opportunities coming from Afghanistan, China will seek to increase its already significant influence in Pakistan. Russia will do the same in the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. both will expand their initiatives in the Middle East, often alongside Iran. There is little evidence that the White House is ready to respond to any of these threats.

In the long run, Beijing and Moscow enjoy a natural division of labor under the threat of America and its allies, in three separate theaters: China in its long-arc regions from Japan across Southeast Asia to India and Pakistan. Russia in Eastern and Central Europe. and Russian-Iranian-Chinese cordial agreement in the Middle East. US planning has to deal with many threats that arise at the same time in these and other theaters.

This underscores how tense our defense capabilities are to protect our distant interests, especially given the unprecedented domestic spending required by President Biden. Washington’s most important task, therefore, is to somehow secure significant increases in defense budgets across the full range of threats, from terrorism to cyber warfare. Diplomacy alone is not a substitute.