Can Putin and Erdogan reconcile their “diametrically opposed” interests at the forthcoming summit?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is scheduled to meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Black Sea resort of Sochi on September 29th. The two leaders are expected to discuss the recent rise in military tensions in northwestern Syria. Russian forces have reportedly stepped up their airstrikes against rebel prisons in Idlib in September, sparking fears in Ankara of further destabilization on Turkey’s southern border. “The regime in Syria is a threat to the south of Turkey. Therefore, as a friend of Russia, I expect [Vladimir Putin] “Putin and Russia take a different approach as a demand for solidarity,” Erdogan said on Friday.

The Sochi summit will come after what Erdogan described as disappointing bilateral talks with US President Joe Biden. In the discussions with Mr. Biden that Ind expected, there was no desired result … as two NATO countries, we must be at a different point, he said. Erdogan criticized US continued support for Kurdish militant groups in Syria, adding that he sought to greatly advance Turkish-Russian relations in his upcoming meeting with Putin. The Turkish leader doubled on Ankara’s controversial decision to buy Russia’s S-400 Triumf missile defense system, confirming earlier reports that it intends to introduce a second S-400 constitution by the end of 2021.

The two sides are not expected to reach any kind of lasting, long-term settlement for the fate of Idlib. Russian and Turkish interests in the region are diametrically opposed, famous Russian political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov. All agreements reached regarding the withdrawal of fighters [from northwestern Syria], that Turkey will relocate them somewhere else, because it has a large detachment there do not work, he added. Despite the continuing Russia-Turkey stalemate over major issues of Syrian statehood, the summit could be a boon to ongoing decompression efforts aimed at mitigating the risk of military escalation between Turkish-backed pro-government fighters and pro-government militants.

But for some in Moscow, the summit decided on the Middle East has been colored by developments closer to our country. Earlier this week, the Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement partially refusing to acknowledge the outcome of Russia’s Duma elections in September: Turkey maintains its support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and does not recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea, he said. Foreign Ministry spokesman Tanju Bilgic, noting that the State Duma elections in Crimea have no legal force for Turkey. Erdogan personally signed his government posts later that week, noting in his speech to the UN that Turkey does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and reaffirming Ankara’s commitment to defending Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Erdogan’s comments provoked a quick and intense, if not predictable, rebuke from the Kremlin. “Turkey is well aware that Crimea is a sovereign part of the Russian Federation and is well aware that we never ignore such statements,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova. “We do not accept such statements [about non-recognition of the elections in Crimea] and we say it openly to our Turkish colleagues “. was added Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov. “The issue of Crimea is an issue on which our positions are dramatically different. We regret this attitude, but we hope that the political will will be shown over time and that Turkey will change this position. “by simply acknowledging the truth and the real situation,” Peshkov said.

The Kremlin and the ruling United Russia party have devoted much of their campaign and post-election messages to highlighting the alleged dangers of foreign interference in Russia’s electoral process. Russian experts, commentators and politicians are protesting for the EU over an earlier European Parliament report suggesting that Europe should refuse to recognize the outcome of the Duma elections if they are identified as fraudulent. The EU has formally agreed to a softer course denying to recognize only those parts of the Duma elections that took place in the occupied Ukrainian territory. Nevertheless, the consistently hard rhetoric of Kremlin officials did not match specific punitive measures against the West. In particular, there is no indication that the Kremlin is seriously considering abandoning the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), a measure supported by populist commentators and politicians in Russia.

A similar situation seems to be playing out with Turkey. Zakharova insisted that Moscow would draw the appropriate conclusions from Ankara’s comments, which obviously do not benefit the bilateral relationship, but it is unclear what that means in concrete terms. Erdogan’s remarks did not push the Kremlin to the point of canceling the September 29 summit, nor is there any indication that Putin intends to raise the Crimean issue during the Sochi talks. Russian political commentator Yevgeny Satanovsky famous that this scandal is unlikely to have a significant impact on the thriving Russian-Turkish conflict trade nor is it likely to endanger Ankara pending the S-400 contract. Svetlana Zurova, a member of the State Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee, told Russian media that Turkey and Russia remain strategic partners despite their strong disagreement over the Crimean regime. We have many points of contact. And there are places where we are not just strategic partners, but actively helping each other, he said.

The consequence of Erdogan’s partial refusal to recognize the Russian Duma elections highlights the complex, sometimes volatile relationship between Moscow and Ankara. Kremlin officials are rushing to develop a well-tested repertoire of outrage in response to the perceived light, but there is no real appetite in Moscow to potentially torpedo the fragile working relationship between the two countries for Turkey. long position in the Crimea.

Mark Episkopos is a national security journalist for National interest.

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