Russia’s dangerous choices beyond the full attack on Ukraine

By BEN FOX and VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) – Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion of Ukraine, with more than 100,000 troops stationed across the country. Of course, the United States believes this is the case, and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that an attack could take place in February.

But Russia denies preparing to invade, and Putin’s intentions remain a mystery.

Russia, which has made a promise that NATO will not expand to include Ukraine, has options that it could pursue in addition to a full-scale invasion and other ways to attack the United States and its allies. All this carries different degrees of danger, for Russia and the world.

A look at some of them:

SOMETHING SHORT A FULL SCALE INVASION

In 2014, Russia occupied the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine. That year he also began equipping rebels in the eastern area known as the Donbas, launching a low-boiling conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people. Many Russian observers have speculated that the recent build-up of Russian troops and naval forces is the next step in a broader effort to eliminate Ukraine, perhaps taking advantage as the United States and its European allies detach from COVID-19 and other issues. Possible scenarios include providing additional support to Russian-backed rebels or launching a limited offensive, as long as it destabilizes Zelensky and introduces a pro-Kremlin leader.

Stopping a full-scale invasion would give Russia more time to mobilize more forces and test the US and its allies’ commitment to the punitive sanctions promised by Biden, says retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former U.S. commander. Military forces in Europe. “He will continue to do what he is doing right now, continuing to put maximum pressure on Ukraine and try to destabilize the government to make people worried,” Hodges said. “There is a lot of potential for us to do more if the opportunity arises.”

This could lead to sanctions that could hurt the Russian economy and hurt Putin at home. There is also a risk that limited action may not be enough to achieve the Russian president’s goal of undermining European security by halting or at least halting NATO expansion, says Dmitry Gorenburg, a CNA analyst at Arlington Research Center. . “I do not think he is getting what he wants,” he said. “It simply came to our notice then. So why now? “

economical war

Russia is a major player in world energy, the third largest oil producer after the United States and Saudi Arabia, and the source of about 40% of the gas used in Europe. It is also a major exporter of wheat, especially to developing countries. Any move to reduce energy flow could be painful for Europe in the winter with gas and oil prices already high. Likewise, rising food prices are a problem around the world.

Putin has some financial leverage, but there is no indication that he would use it and could end up hurting Russia in the long run, says Edward Fisman, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasian Center. Any move by Russia to cut off gas supplies would push European nations to find alternative sources for the future. “It’s a weapon you can only use once,” he said. “You do it once and you lose that leverage forever.” The Biden government is already working with Qatar and other suppliers to replace Russian gas if needed.

GOVERNMENT ATTACKS

There is no doubt that Russia has the capability to carry out major cyber-attacks in Ukraine and around the world, and it is almost certain that it would do so again as part of any operation against its neighbor. The Department of Homeland Security warned law enforcement agencies on January 23 that Russia would consider launching a cyber-attack on the United States, including possible actions against critical infrastructure, if it realized that responding to an invasion of Ukraine “threatened its national security. ”

Russia is the suspected culprit in a 2015 piracy against Ukraine’s electricity grid. Hackers this month temporarily shut down government websites in Ukraine, stressing that cybersecurity remains a key concern in the confrontation with Russia. “Whatever the size and scale and nature of their ground and air attacks, cyberspace will be a big part of everything they do,” Hodges warns.

The danger to the world is that hostile activity against Ukraine could spread, as did the catastrophic attack known as notPetya in 2017. The downside for Russia is the US and other nations have the power to retaliate, he warned. Biden to Putin in June. “He knows there are consequences,” Biden said.

THE FACTOR OF CHINA

China is not a direct player in the confrontation with Ukraine, but it plays a role. Observers have warned that Moscow could respond to Washington’s rejection of its security demands by strengthening military ties with China. Russia and China have waged a series of joint combat missions, including naval exercises and patrols of large-scale bombers over the Sea of ​​Japan and the East China Sea.

US officials have said they do not believe Russia would launch an invasion as President Xi Jinping presides over the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics. “The Chinese will not be happy if their Olympians are disturbed by war,” Gorenburg said. Putin plans to travel to Beijing to attend the start of the Games as American and European leaders sit outside to protest human rights abuses.

One theory among Russian observers is that China is following the US and Europe’s response to Ukraine to assess what could happen if it moves against Taiwan. Hodges sees this as a danger. “If we, with our combined diplomatic and economic power plus military power, can not prevent the president of the Russian Federation from doing something that is so obviously illegal, wrong and aggressive, then I do not think President Xi will be very impressed. “Everything we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea.”

A RUSSIAN BUILDING IN LATIN AMERICA

Senior Russian officials have warned that Moscow could deploy troops or troops inside Cuba and Venezuela. The threats are vague, although Russia has close ties with both countries as well as with Nicaragua. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the idea, and experts in the region and around the world see it as a strategy that would probably not achieve much, other than diverting Russian forces needed elsewhere, and is therefore unlikely to happen. .

A more likely scenario is that Russia is stepping up its already extensive propaganda and misinformation efforts to sharpen divisions in Latin America and elsewhere, including the United States.

A DIPLOMA SOLUTION

It is not a given that confrontation ends in invasion. While the Biden administration has said it will not back down from Russia’s security demands, there still seems to be some room for diplomacy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that the US response “gives hope for the start of a serious dialogue on minor issues”.