Putin has long sought to balance Europe. Now he is working to restore it

For much of his 22-year tenure, Vladimir Putin worked to carefully balance Russia’s position in Europe. He pleased himself in some chapters as he intimidated others and sought economic integration as he condemned European values.

Even when Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 led to a deepening of relations, and Moscow harassed some European countries with massive misinformation and nearly lost military flights, it reached out to others – if not by winning them, then at least by keeping diplomacy. Open.

Ukrainian soldiers stand at a checkpoint in Chemalyk, Ukraine, on Saturday, January 29, 2022. After years of trying to divide and conquer Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have decided to compete with Europe as a whole in the current Ukraine crisis. (Brendan Hoffman / The New York Times)

But with the winter solstice in Ukraine, Putin is openly embracing something he has long avoided: hostility to Europe as a whole.

The more Europe responds to Moscow’s threats with military aid to the east and commitments of economic sanctions to cover its otherwise deep-rooted internal strife, the more Putin immediately steps back. And instead of focusing on diplomacy in all European capitals, he has spent much of it in Washington.

The change reflects Moscow’s perception of European governments as American puppets to be pushed aside, as well as its claim to be a great power riding Europe and not as an unusually strong neighbor. It also shows Russia’s ambition to no longer manage, but to completely reshape the European security order.

But in seeking to dominate Europe, even if only on the issue of relations with Ukraine, “there is a danger of pushing Europe together, of strengthening more hawkish voices and funds,” said Emma Asford, who studies European security issues in research. of the Atlantic Council. club.

“And there is a danger of pulling America back, even when it is trying to push America away from Europe,” Ashford added of Moscow’s approach.

A Ukrainian soldier takes a break from digging a trench in Chemalyk, Ukraine, on Saturday, January 29, 2022. After years of diplomatic division and conquest, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have decided to compete with Europe as a whole. crisis. (Brendan Hoffman / The New York Times)

Putin has not completely left Europe. He did have a call with Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, on Friday. And he may even withdraw from the crisis in time to restore European relations, or seek to do so as soon as the dust settles.

But if he insists, analysts warn that his approach could leave Europe more militarized and divided, albeit with a much smaller and weaker alliance with Moscow than the Cold War.

Moscow-Washington axis

The Kremlin has repeatedly signaled that, while its concerns about Ukraine may have brought it to this point, it is seeking something broader: a return to the days when Europe’s security was not negotiated in dozens of capitals but decided between two major powers.

“As in the late 1960s, direct interaction between Moscow and Washington could provide a political framework for a future recession,” wrote Vladimir Frolov, a Russian political analyst, on Moscow’s ambitions.

This is not exclusively a matter of insult or ambition of great power. It also reflects the growing belief in Moscow that this arrangement is, in fact, already.

After Russia annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine in 2014, which Western governments punished with economic sanctions, the crisis was to be resolved through negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, Paris and Berlin.

Although Washington has been pushing, he has urged the issue to be settled among Europeans, hoping for a stable balance on the continent.

But while the letter of the so-called Minsk agreements nominally met Russia’s demands, the Kremlin left believing that Ukraine had refused. The conclusion in Moscow, until about 2019, was that “European states are either reluctant or incapable, possibly incapable, of forcing Kiev to follow,” Asford said.

A Ukrainian soldier speaks to residents at a checkpoint in Chemalyk, Ukraine, on Saturday, January 29, 2022. After years of trying to divide and conquer Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have decided to compete with Europe as a whole in the current Ukraine crisis. (Brendan Hoffman / The New York Times)

This also reinforced the long-held view in Moscow that Germany’s economic power or France’s diplomatic capital was in a world shaped by tough military force.

“They are insignificant, they are irrelevant, so there is a context in Moscow that we need to talk to the US because they are the only ones that really matter,” Ashford added.

Military power between European Union member states, which has sought to impose itself as Moscow’s interlocutor on Ukraine, has fallen sharply from that of the United States and Russia in recent years. This worsened with the withdrawal of Britain.

At the same time, strong divisions within Europe over how to deal with Russia have led Epirus to strive for a coherent approach. The departure of Angela Merkel, Germany’s longtime leader, and Macron’s failed attempts at informal European leadership have often left Europe mired in a US-led status quo.

“Apart from Paris and Brussels, everyone is very desperate for US leadership in this crisis,” Jeremy Sapiro, director of research at the European External Relations Council, told a Brookings Institution conference this week.

“All this means that Russia is somewhat verified in its view that Europe is a puppet of the United States and does not really need to be involved separately,” he added.

Restoring Europe

Although Putin’s precise plan for Ukraine remains a seemingly mysterious mystery, he has stressed that his agenda extends to Europe as a whole.

In previous crises for Ukraine, Russia’s goal has been to focus closely on that country, largely on a goal of preventing it from aligning with the West. It has tried to avoid provoking excessive European opposition and even sought European aid to protect its interests in Ukraine.

Now, perhaps as a result of the Ukraine-focused coercion that has failed to achieve its goals, Moscow is demanding a general overhaul of Europe’s own security architecture, ending or even overturning NATO’s eastward expansion.

Such a change, as it turned out, would mean a change in the rules that have governed Europe since the end of the Cold War. And it would mean formalizing a line between West and East, with Moscow dominating the latter.

Instead of seeking to overthrow the post-Cold War order in Europe, in other words, Moscow wants to overthrow it. And this meant that we would try to force not only Ukraine, but Europe as a whole, by making a confrontation with the continent not only tolerable but also a means to an end.

“The most militarily powerful state on the continent does not see itself as a stakeholder in Europe’s security architecture,” wrote Michael Coffman, a Russian researcher at CNA, a research center, in an essay this week on War on the Rocks.

A Ukrainian soldier in the front line in Verkhnyotoretsky, Ukraine, on Saturday, January 29, 2022. After years of trying to divide and conquer, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have decided to compete with Europe as a whole in the current Ukraine crisis. (Tyler Hicks / The New York Times)

Rather, as a result of Moscow cracking down on infrastructure or even trying to bring it down, Coffman said: “European security remains much more volatile than it seems.”

A divided future

Putin’s willingness to engage in widespread hostilities with Europe could strengthen his hand in Ukraine, showing that he is willing to risk even the continent’s collective rage to pursue his own interests there.

But no matter what happens in Ukraine, the consolidation of a hostile relationship between Russia and Europe puts them on a path that carries uncertainty and danger for both.

Circles of “sanctions, diplomatic expulsions and various forms of retaliation,” Coffman wrote, can easily take their own logic, escalating in ways that hurt both sides. Russia and Europe are financially vulnerable to each other and already face volatile domestic policies.

Relations between Moscow and European capitals have rarely been warm. But for the most part, they have continued, overseeing, among many other common concerns, a Russia-Europe energy trade on which almost the entire continent is based.

There is also a danger for the United States: to be drawn deeper into a part of the world that they hoped to weaken in order to focus on Asia.

In the short term, a divided Europe seems to be jeopardizing exactly what Moscow has long sought to avoid: more US power in eastern Europe and greater European unity, albeit resentful, against Russia.

“The Kremlin’s approach to Europe at the moment, on the surface, at least to me, seems quite short-sighted,” Ashford said.

The most troubling possibility, some analysts say, is not that Putin is bluffing or seeing these flaws — though it might be true — but rather that this is a choice to divide Europe against him for the sake of his own interests. Ukraine, willingly making.