Yuval Noah Harari | Why Vladimir Putin has already lost this war

Members of the Ukrainian military wait at a forward position on the eastern frontline near Kalynivka village as Russian forces advanced on Monday, in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Photo: Chris McGrath / Getty Images)

The Russians may yet conquer Ukraine. But Ukrainians have shown that they will not let them hold it, writes author and historian Yuval Noah Harari.

Less than a week into the war *, it seems increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin is heading towards a historic defeat. He may win all the battles but still lose the war. Putin’s dream of rebuilding the Russian empire has always rested on the lie that Ukraine is not a real nation, that Ukrainians aren’t a real people, and that the inhabitants of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Lviv yearn for Moscow’s rule. That’s a complete lie – Ukraine is a nation with more than a thousand years of history, and Kyiv was already a major metropolis when Moscow was not even a village. But the Russian despot has told his lie so many times that he apparently believes it himself.

When planning his invasion of Ukraine, Putin could count on many known facts. He knew that militarily Russia dwarfs Ukraine. He knew that NATO would not send troops to help Ukraine. He knew that European dependence on Russian oil and gas would make countries like Germany hesitate about imposing stiff sanctions. Based on these known facts, his plan was to hit Ukraine hard and fast, decapitate its government, establish a puppet regime in Kyiv, and ride out the western sanctions.