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Before he effectively became a pariah on the world stage, there was a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin was the star of global summits.
In 2013, he and then-US president Barack Obama sat on the sidelines of the G8 looking glum, icy and miserable.
The following year, Australia’s then prime minister Tony Abbott vowed to “shirtfront” Putin at the G20 over the MH17 disaster.
And in 2018, then US president Donald Trump stunned his intelligence officials by standing up at a summit with Putin and defending him against accusations of election interference.
From bringing warships with him to “flex a little muscle”, to allowing his dog into a conference room with the canine-phobic Angela Merkel, Putin knows how to bring drama to meetings of world leaders.
But after teasing the possibility of attending this year’s G20 summit in Bali, the Russian leader abruptly announced he can’t make it.
He RSVP’d “no” on the same day that Russia announced its intention to withdraw from the key Ukrainian city of Kherson.
It’s a humiliating moment for Putin, who only a month ago declared Kherson to be Russian territory and that it would remain so “forever”.
Russia watchers say the propaganda opportunities presented by a possible appearance at the G20 would have been tempting to Putin.
But they say the strongman clearly concluded that after another loss in Ukraine, the risks of being publicly shunned or even removed in a coup while abroad were simply too great.
“It was unlikely he’d show up in person, given the situation on the Ukrainian front and growing domestic unrest,” Leonid Petrov, politics and business expert at the International College of Management Sydney and the Australian National University, said.
“Nobody [would] talk to him in Bali or even watch his speech anyway.”
But Putin, who has posed with tigers and taken shirtless photos throughout his career, is the master of the publicity stunt.
Experts say there’s still a chance that Putin may make a surprise appearance in Bali.
‘No one trusts him’
With his war in Ukraine dragging on, and growing dissatisfaction among Russians, Putin needs an opportunity to show his people and the elite who supported him that he was still a key negotiator and Russia was a major global power.
Dr. Petrov said he believes the Russian leader would probably have thought about attending the G20 to help project this image.
“Putin is trying to seek opportunities for negotiations,” Dr. Petrov said.
“No one trusts him, but he needs negotiations to buy him more time. Putin going to the G20 [would be]all about buying time.”
While peace talks were held between Russia and Ukraine earlier this year, they quickly stalled.
Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would not negotiate with Russia again until a new leader was installed in the Kremlin.
The White House has reportedly encouraged him to back down from that stance, while also not forcing him back to the negotiating table.
Dr Petrov said Putin would not have seen the G20 as a genuine opportunity to negotiate with the Ukrainians.
But appearing at the summit would have given him the appearance of a negotiator and potentially more breathing room needed to take more drastic action.
“He wants to be seen as a trusted negotiator. Right now, he’s losing ground,” he said.
But with Kherson likely to be back in Ukrainian hands any day now, an increasingly weakened Putin may have concluded that he could not leave the Kremlin unattended.
The risks versus the rewards
Leaving the country was always a risky move for the security conscious Russian leader.
Putin may have initially weighed that risk against the potential for photo opportunities with friendly leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping, according to Dr Sara Meger, a lecturer in international relations from the University of Melbourne.
But she said this would come with a potentially heavy price.
“If he leaves the state of Russia, he’s exposed to assassination … this would be playing in his head,” Dr Meger said.
While leaving Russia opens him up to a possible overthrow or security risk, Putin knows he needs to convince his people he is winning the war.
“The tide is growing against Putin. To some at home he’s either too hard or too soft on Ukraine,” Dr Petrov said.
Sanctions and economic issues had destabilized his situation further, undermining trust in his own regime.
Putin now finds himself in an impossible situation: His actions in Ukraine have banished him from the world stage, but he might need the help of other global leaders to get himself out of his mess.
“Putin wants international sanctions lifted and negotiations are part of that. The problem is, who would trust him when he broke his promise not to attack Ukraine?” said Dr. Petrov.
Dr. Petrov said that by dangling the prospect of using his nuclear arsenal in Ukraine, Putin has seriously damaged his standing on the world stage.
“Putin has a nuclear button and nothing can stop him using it,” he said.
The risks for Ukraine in a face-off with Putin
Putin’s decision to skip the G20 will come as good news to his main foe, Zelenskyy.
Ukraine called for Putin’s invitation to the G20 to be revoked, with Zelenskyy making his views on the matter clear.
“My personal position and the position of Ukraine was that if the leader of the Russian Federation takes part, then Ukraine will not take part,” Zelenskyy said.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson last week said Russia should be expelled from the Group of 20 major economies, adding that Putin had blood on his hands.
“Putin publicly acknowledged ordering missile strikes on Ukrainian civilians and energy infrastructure,” spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Twitter.
“With his hands stained in blood, he must not be allowed to sit at the table with world leaders.”
Zelenskyy is most likely to attend via video link.
But if he chose to fly to Bali, his citizens could ask why he’s leaving on an overseas trip when they’re staying to fight.
“Putin says he’s open to negotiations, but Zelenskyy will not negotiate with him while he’s in power,” Dr Petrov said.
“It may be better for him not to go because he will lose credibility.
“He will look stubborn, but if he breaks his promise, he will look soft to his people.”
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