Putin’s Leaning Jenga Tower

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine looks more like a wasted effort than a 1980s British board game Jenga. Remove a wrong piece and the tower collapses, or then place it in the wrong place on top of the tower and it’s game over.

The wooden blocks serve as a metaphor for the choices and support pulled from under Putin’s plan to conquer Kyiv and build a Russian empire in his image. As the war enters its 10th month and casualties approach a reported 95,000 Russian soldiersthe once seemingly mighty rectangular structure built by Putin looks more like the Leaning Tower of Pisa and leans in one or two remaining blocks to stay upright.

One of these obstacles is undoubtedly public support in Russia, and according to the British Ministry of Defense, this support has dropped significantly. Their latest intelligence update states, An independent Russian media has claimed access to data collected by Russia’s Federal Protection Service for internal use. The data showed that 55 percent of Russians favor peace talks with Ukraine, with only 25 percent saying they support the continuation of the conflict. These results are consistent with a separate October 2022 survey in which 57 percent of respondents said they were in favor of talks. In April 2022, about 80 percent of Russians claimed to support the operation.

Multiple failures on the battlefield resulted in humiliating losses and withdrawals from lands that Putin once declared Russian until recently September. With his military unable to secure a victory on the battlefield, Putin’s only recourse has been to target civilians and launch cruise missiles and drones indiscriminately against Ukraine. The targets of a December 5 bombing were residential neighborhoods and Ukraine critical infrastructure in Kyiv, Vinnytsia and Odesa, knocking down power in Odesa, Mykolayiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Cherkasy. The Ukrainian Air Force claims to have shot down more than 60 of the 70 cruise missiles it said were fired from Caspian and Black Seaas well as the Rostov region of Russia.

The intent is clear: terrorize the civilian population, equip the winter and survive until spring. Cruise missile attacks on November 23 finally convinced him European Parliament to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. In response, Russia immediately bombed Kherson and Dnipro in the 90th anniversary of the Holodomorconfirming their status as a terrorist state.

Kiev’s resilience is still the watchword for Ukrainian citizens, it just makes them more determined and determined to continue removing critical blocks from Putins Jenga tower. Perhaps the Ukrainians are channeling King Albert I of Belgium, who in August 1914 at the start of the First World War declared: “A country that defends itself is respected.” this country will not be lost.

Putin’s wartime arsenal of drones and cruise missiles has been significantly depleted and he has been forced to turn to Iran for replenishment in order to sustain his terror offensive in Ukraine. However, Russia may soon face supply chain problems of its own at a time when they cannot afford it.

Iran has its own internal issues to deal with after his death Mahsa Amini. Kurdia, 22, from northwestern Iran, died in police custody after she was beaten for not wearing a headscarf while visiting the capital Tehran in September. Her death led thousands of Iranian citizens to take to the streets to protest this injustice. The female students have removed their headscarves and shouted anti-government slogans against the police. Protesters in Tehran set up and burned barricades while chanting death to the dictator. and set fire to the ancestral home of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Then, on an international platform during the World Cup in Doha, Qatar, the Iran men’s football team remained silent as Iran’s national anthem was played before their match against England. Restrictions on personal liberties are the driving force behind his momentum building, and he has the mainstream Islamic theocracy in reactionary mode to suppress its growth. This threat to the regime, this distraction, could affect Russia’s ability to continue its terrorist attacks on Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure, thereby removing another block from Putin’s tower.

Support from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is also wavering. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has become weak in the knees in terms of direct support to Russia; Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan publicly called out Putin and the CSTO for failing to help countries over Azerbaijan’s aggression. and President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Kazakhstan had no intention of recognizing the independence of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics in eastern Ukraine during the annual St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last June.

Putin’s opponents and allies are steadily chipping away at the Jenga blocks and further weakening Russia, driving his war effort closer to collapse. Ukraine is pounding Russian forces on the battlefields and presenting a growing sense of vulnerability and insecurity to the Russian public as Ukrainians struck targets inside Russia on December 5. Ukraine was able to launch Soviet-era Tu-141 jet drones at bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. The drones apparently went undetected and were never engaged by Russian air defenses, in an action reminiscent of Mathias Rustthe West German teenager who flew his single-engine plane through Russian airspace and landed near Moscow’s Red Square on May 28, 1987. Russian authorities said two planes were damaged, three soldiers were killed and four were wounded in the Ukrainian attack.

What will be the last nodal block removed and collapse Putins Jenga tower? A loss to Bahamut the Melitopolis accelerating Russian withdrawal from Ukraine or the Isthmus of Perekop and the loss of Crimea? A dashing Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian oligarch, and founder of the Wagner Group, showing presidential ambitions? One uprising in Chechnya forcing Ramzan Kadyrov to pay attention to internal security, instead of providing manpower to Russia in Ukraine? Or the Cap $60 a barrel on the price of Russian oil on the world market, designed to undermine Russia’s ability to continue funding Putin’s war?

Somewhere in Putin’s crippled Jenga tower is the one square whose regime depends on the anchor, holding it all together. But which one is it? He must choose his next move carefully, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is doing his best to give Putin no choice but to make a game-losing move.

Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), DIA, NSA and NGA. He led the US European Command’s intelligence engagement division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and the Baltic. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.

Mark Toth is a retired economist, historian and entrepreneur who has worked in banking, insurance, publishing and global trade. He is a former board member of the World Trade Center, St. Louis, and has lived in US diplomatic and military communities around the world, including London, Tel Aviv, Augsburg, and Nagoya. Follow him on Twitter @MCTothSTL.