Latest war in Ukraine: ‘One of the most intense attacks so far’: Over 40 rockets fired at Kyiv. Russian forces are preparing for an attack on Crimea | Global News

By Diana Magnay, Moscow correspondent

This time last year I asked Vladimir Putin at his year-end press conference if he would guarantee that he would not invade Ukraine or any other sovereign country.

His response was long and rambling, and included a lot of ranting about NATO expansion and US missiles supposedly parked on Russia’s doorstep, concluding with the claim that Russia was “not a threat to anyone”.

At that point, he had about 100,000 troops massing on the Ukrainian border and would invade two months later.

He’s not doing that press conference this year. Nor has he given his traditional speech to the Russian Federal Assembly, which usually occurs around February or March each year and is constitutionally supposed to be done annually. This February he was quite busy giving all sorts of other bellicose speeches about why he had to launch his “special military operation”.

Now, as Russian troops settle in for a particularly gruesome winter with fighting raging, somewhat inexplicably, around Bakhmut and with no apparent way out of the trench their president has dug in Ukraine, perhaps he just has nothing to say.

Rumor has it that the Kremlin is developing an escape plan for him, labeled “Noah’s Ark,” which would involve him going to Venezuela if the government collapses. But these may just be in that category of “wishful thinking” which understandably preoccupies many Western news copies, along with rumors of his apparent ill health etc.

The problem with all these rumors is that they are extremely difficult to verify. The Kremlin is not the most leaky institution, and there are really very few people who could claim to be “reliable sources” in the Kremlin’s inner circle. The Noah’s Ark story comes from the Telegram channel of one of Putin’s former speechwriters, Abbas Gallaymov, who got it from an unnamed Kremlin source he says he trusts and brought it up because he thought it was so juicy.

Perhaps the Kremlin needs to prepare contingencies for every eventuality, although Venezuela does not seem the most obvious retirement escape option for Mr. Putin. The source may not be that reliable. it could just be untrue. In Kremlinology, we all read the tea leaves.

But actions speak louder than words. Another round of Russian raids on cities across Ukraine today, the ongoing attack on Bakhmut, the fact that Mr Putin appears unwavering in his intention to continue with this terrible war do not lend themselves to the idea of ​​a leader packing his bags his for a quick getaway, even if he’s not particularly in the mood to answer questions about it right now.

Even if he has some kind of devastating cancer, which again is extremely difficult to verify, at the age of 70 the almost messianic way he pursued his mission to Ukraine could simply be because he perceives it as a legacy project, cancer or in different case. Let’s keep the Noah’s Ark idea well on the back burner. Mr. Putin has a lot more damage he could do to Ukraine and his own people before he leaves the field.