Private armies unleashed by Vladimir Putin on Ukraine may lead to his downfall

Putin’s adventures in Ukraine could lead to violent upheaval across Russia and bring down regimes. In recent weeks we have seen humiliating drone strikes against Moscow, Bryansk and Klimovsky regions, Krasnodar region and the city of Belgorod. There has been shelling in the Belgorod region, which has intensified this week and forced the evacuation of thousands of people.

In a major blow to Putin’s power earlier in May, the Russian Volunteer Corps and Russia’s Freedom Legion launched a two-day raid on the Ukrainian border towards Belgorod. It was followed in the previous days by an even stronger ground operation. The Russian Defense Ministry said that on Thursday, two motorized infantry companies with tanks attacked again in Belgorod, four miles from the border with Ukraine. She had to use fighter jets and artillery on her own soil to deal with them.

These attacks are extremely significant: they represent the first external military ground attack on mainland Russian territory since World War II. They may well have corresponding consequences.

Despite Kiev’s denials that it was involved in any of the Belgorod raids, the intention now may be to sow panic in Russia, forcing Moscow to withdraw its forces from the front line as the Ukrainian counteroffensive develops. If such raids continue, they could have more fundamental effects, perhaps creating even more resentment among people in the border regions who have already suffered more than most Russian civilians from Putin’s war. Coupled with the failures of the Russian military so far and the growing damage to the country’s economy, this could set off a chain reaction that would spread to Moscow itself.

Putin, once considered a strategic genius, has unwittingly set the stage for what may come next. As he sought to privatize conscription to fuel his war rather than impose another wave of conscription, private armies have snowballed. The biggest is Wagner, which has been active in Ukraine since 2014 and has now grown into a monster. Hot is the Kadyrovtsy, the private army of notorious Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. It is a major power notorious for brutal war crimes in Ukraine and is set to return to frontline fighting there.

Many other private armies have been set up by ex-servicemen, often consisting of ex-servicemen, funded, equipped and trained by government funds. Remarkably, in the minds of non-Russians, even Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has one of his own, the Patriot. There are also corporate militias, such as the one owned by the energy giant Gazprom, which has battalions fighting at the front.

Oligarchs including Gennady Timchenko and Oleg Deripaska have created their own combat units or attached themselves to existing private military companies. Characteristically, as Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, himself observed: Everyone says that at some point there will be a power struggle, and everyone needs their own army.

The Kremlin also instructed the authorities of each region to create their own battalions of volunteers to fight in Ukraine, loyal to the local leadership and not to Moscow. Some of these men will go home disappointed and bitter.

Putin sees these armies as instruments for consolidating his own power and the Russian state, not as political players in their own right. But when the chips are down, he may not be able to call the shots. Prigozhin, for example, is a politically ambitious and unstable man. Although he has declared war on Moscow’s general staff and elites, he has remained loyal to Putin. It may not take much to change that. He is unlikely to refuse to use the powers at his disposal to maneuver for power and influence when he feels the time is right.

After Bakhmut, Prigozhins militia is now retreating from the front lines to their bases across Russia. This leaves a large group of armed, battle-hardened men, including many convicted criminals, under the command of their leaders and ready for battle.

Alongside or opposed to them are many others, not only the private military companies and regional battalions, but also the multitude of armed organs of the government, including the FSB, GRU and the Ministry of Defense. Then there is the army itself, whose ranks include large numbers of abused, degraded and disaffected soldiers, commanders and even generals. If Putin cannot fend off the growing threats to his own homeland and at the same time secure some kind of victory in Ukraine, it is possible to imagine the Russian establishment collapsing into a violent mass of rival armed camps.

Perhaps we should not wish this grim fate upon the people of the Russian Federation, but we should certainly want to see the back of their current leadership with the industrialized murder, chaos and misery they have caused and, given the opportunity, continue to cause . If this is accelerated by cross-border raids, artillery barrages and drone strikes, we should, like Ukraine, welcome them, rather than deplore them, like cheerleader Joe Biden. At least our Secretary of State, James Cleverley, has the resolve to make clear his support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself by striking back against Russian aggressors across its borders.