Russia-Africa summit: Here’s what Vladimir Putin and Moscow stand to gain

Forty-three African heads of state attended the Russia-Africa summit in 2019. They had high hopes that Russia would emerge as a new source of investment and trade for the continent. Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to double Russian trade with Africa in five years to $40 billion.

Since then, Russian trade with the continent has shrunk to US$14 billion. It is one-sided, with Russia exporting seven times more than it imports from Africa. Moreover, 70% of this trade is concentrated in just four countries: Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa.

Russia invests little in Africa. It represents 1% of foreign direct investment going to the continent. Mauritius is a major source of foreign direct investment for Africa. In addition, Russia’s gross domestic product has shrunk in value from US$2.3 trillion in 2013 to US$1.8 trillion in 2021.

Despite declining economic ties, Russia’s influence in Africa has expanded rapidly since 2019. It has deployed troops on the continent and become the dominant external partner in a handful of countries. Russian disinformation campaigns in at least 16 African countries are shaping the information environment on the continent.

This has largely been achieved through illegitimate means. These include the support of isolated, authoritarian regimes through a combination of the deployment of Wagner paramilitaries, election interference, disinformation, and arms-for-resources deals.

Each of these tactics is destabilizing for the host country.

Predictably, half of the dozen African countries where Russia actively exerts its influence are in conflict. Russia has similar undermined UN operations in African countries where Moscow is vying for influence, further exacerbating instability.

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Despite Russia’s increasingly aggressive policies on the continent and internationally, roughly the same number of African heads of state are expected to attend this year Saint Petersburg Summit as in 2019.

More important than any announced trade deal are the political and economic benefits that Russian and African elites expect to reap.

Having closely watched Russia’s subversive interventions in Africa for many years, the main losers will be ordinary citizens who will pay for these exclusive partnerships through higher taxes, greater instability and less freedom.

The Russia-Africa summit has obvious benefits for Moscow. It conveys a perception of normalcy following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an International Criminal Court war crimes warrant for Putin and the aborted uprising under Wagner’s leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.

While Russian-African economic ties are modest, the continent provides Russia with a global stage from which Moscow can inflate its geostrategic posture. Africa is more important to Russia than Russia is to Africa.

The upside for Moscow

Given Russia’s track record of destabilizing the continent since 2019, it begs the question why African leaders would even consider attending the St. Petersburg summit.

Security has deteriorated in every African country where Wagner has deployed, while human rights violations have increased. Local communities have been intimidated from leaving their homes where Wagner had access to the mines, effectively annexing those areas.

Moscow favors some of these regimes by providing protection from international sanctions for human rights violations or violation of democratic practices. Not surprisingly, African countries with the most Russian involvement have an average democracy score of 19. The median African democracy is 51 Freedom Houses 100 point scale.

The summit is an opportunity to show business as usual for Russia. And that Russia is not a pariah, but enjoys the tacit endorsement of violations of international law by African heads of state.

Russia will likely use this summit to falsely claim that Western sanctions are limiting Russian (and Ukrainian) food and fertilizer exports to Africa, distracting attention from Russia’s culpability for disrupting global grain supplies.

The summit also underscores the growing importance of Africa for Russian foreign policy. Africa remains the continent most receptive to Russian engagement. He is also the least willing to criticize Moscow for its land grab in Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made at least eight visits to Africa since Russia launched its attack in March 2022.

Doubtful benefits for Africa

Anemic investment, normalizing autocracy, fomenting instability and meddling in African domestic politics do not sound like a winning strategy for building a long-term partnership.

It’s one thing to take a noncommittal stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which may seem like a distant conflict. But why would African leaders continue to work with a foreign actor with an active track record of undermining stability on the continent?

A clear assessment of national interests is not imperative. The instability caused by Russia’s erratic tactics threatens to spill across borders and create sovereignty crises on the continent.

The subversion of the rule of law simultaneously damages the reputation of the continents as a reliable destination for investment and international cooperation.

Russia’s influence operations are almost always aimed at helping established (usually authoritarian) regimes maintain power. Opaque mining and arms deals are often part of the package. African leaders who benefit from these tactics welcome Moscow’s initiatives.

Other African leaders see cooperation with Russia as a tactic to get more support from the West.

A minority may naively see their participation as a real opportunity to win more Russian investment or to encourage more constructive Russian engagement. Expected announcements of mining, energy, grains, transport and digitization deals at the summit will provide a supporting fig sheet to all participants. Even if such plans never materialize.

REALITY CHECK

The reality is that the Russian strategy of elite cooperation is widening the gap between African leaders and the interests of citizens. Citizens regularly say they want more democracy, job creation and the rule of law. Russian commitments on the continent undermine all three.

The gap in interests between African leaders and citizens suggests another takeaway from the summit: most African political leaders will not champion reforms to citizens’ priorities for better governance, development and security. Instead, leadership in these interests should come from African civil society, the media and independent judiciary.

Moscow is sure to use this year’s gathering in St. Petersburg to create images of common Russian and African interests. The key question African citizens must ask is: whose interests are being served?

– The writer, Joseph Siegel, is Director of Research, Center for African Strategic Studies, University of Maryland