More global support needed for Afghanistan to contain Taliban campaign | World news

The next two to three months are crucial to blunt the Taliban’s campaign to seize territory across Afghanistan, with the group enjoying active logistical and tactical support across the Pakistani border.

Since the United States announced its intention to withdraw all of its forces from Afghanistan earlier this year, the Taliban has focused on capturing as much territory as possible, especially in rural areas, and on the takeover of border posts with countries such as Iran, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan.

India believes the best-case scenario is a political settlement based on a power-sharing agreement in Kabul that retains the constitutional systems and institutions put in place over the past two decades, and is open to possible changes in the government. existing system to accommodate all stakeholders.

The Afghan defense forces, which have lost some of their momentum in recent weeks, have now started to reorient their strategy to contain the Taliban campaign, but will need more support from the international community to scale up their operations, said persons familiar with the developments on condition of anonymity. .

A dynamic strategy focused on securing the most important Afghan provinces and good military leadership will be essential for Afghan forces in the coming weeks, especially as there are indications that the Taliban will expand their campaign in August to target provincial capitals and urban areas, including Kandahar, Helmand, Paktia and Ghazni.

The Afghan forces have also benefited from a reshuffle of the upper echelons of the security apparatus, during which President Ashraf Ghani replaced his defense and interior ministers and the head of the army to sharpen the fight against the Taliban. .

People pointed to the $ 3.3 billion the United States pledged last month for Afghan forces, including $ 1 billion to ensure the Air Force can support combat operations and for delivery. more planes, $ 1 billion to purchase supplies such as fuel, ammunition and spare parts, and $ 700 million to pay salaries for Afghan troops, but said increased community support international support would be necessary in terms of air support, maintenance of air assets, intelligence and surveillance.

Afghan forces must adapt to the new reality and should continue fighting as long as salaries are paid and there is good leadership, the people said.

The Taliban have benefited from logistical and tactical support from Pakistani soil, and all supply lines on the Pakistani side remain open, people said. There are reports that thousands of Pakistani terrorists belonging to groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) are fighting in Afghanistan while Pakistani identity cards have been found on many fighters killed in recent weeks.

There are also reports of terrorists wounded in Afghanistan being treated in hospitals in the Pakistani cities of Chaman and Quetta, both in Balochistan province, and pro-Taliban rallies were organized in Quetta and Peshawar, the capital of the province of Balochistan. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Madrassas or seminaries in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa have appealed to men to join the jihad in Afghanistan.

Over the past year, most terrorists based in Pakistan’s northern and southern parts of Waziristan have also been pushed back to Afghanistan. These developments coincided with a closer examination of Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts by Western powers and watchdogs such as the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

For India, the presence of fighters from LeT, JeM and the Haqqani network, which has deep ties to the Pakistani army, remains a major concern. The Haqqani network was linked to the attacks on the Indian embassy in Kabul in 2008 and 2009 and the network also has links to Al Qaeda.

The population also called reports that the Taliban controls 85% of Afghanistan’s territory as exaggerated, and said the group controls around 45% of the country or around 212 of the 420 districts, while more than 110 districts are under government control.

In the worst-case scenario, among all the Afghan stakeholders who fail to reach an agreement on a political settlement and the Taliban seize power by force, there are fears that the group may not be able to control all of the issues. regions of Afghanistan, leaving ungoverned areas that could be used by foreign terrorists to pose a threat to countries in the region, including several Central Asian states.

Central Asian states will be the most affected in terms of security. China is also concerned about groups like the Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The Tajik border is the most tense right now, as large areas are controlled by the Taliban, one of the people quoted above said.

While the core Taliban ideology, including the creation of an Islamic emirate and disregard for human rights, remains unchanged, the group is not a monolith and has multiple centers of power and factions. While some Taliban commanders on the ground believe they have won the war, others, like Doha-based political leaders, have a different view and some are open to sharing power.

The Taliban are learning from their experiences and they don’t want to be seen as taking control of the provinces by force. They also want some kind of recognition from the world and are visiting Iran and Russia to get some kind of legitimacy, the people said.

These factors are also believed to have shaped India’s decision to open channels of communication with the Taliban, as the Hindustan Times first reports. The Foreign Ministry has not officially confirmed any such contacts, but said India is in contact with various stakeholders.

While there are differences in the approaches of countries such as Iran, Russia and the United States on the Afghan issue, there is convergence in opposition to any takeover by force or the military. in Kabul, people said.